Shortstop II + Fixing the Cubs + The Future

[Jazz]

I wish there was a chart though that could give us a prediction based on the recent swing of winning we're having. Not based on our rate since June or so, but some kind of probability based on the schedule and predicted success.

 

we do have that and it's at 57 percent.

 

Ahh yes, that stat.

 

What exactly is the formula for it?

[brinoch]

One of the things that is obvious in this thread is the dearth of quality options for an upgrade.

 

Sosa is an upgrade in an effort to help out a platoon situation, but he's not going to radically improve this team.

 

Glaus has been mentioned, but he'd be out of position. Would he be sufficient? That depends on how reliable one believes Meph's defensive estimations to be. I have some doubts, but it's more speculation and reservation than anything specific.

 

What else?

 

Posada isn't likely to be available.

 

Griffey or Dunn would be a possibility. Those two probably represent the best chance for improvement.

 

There really isn't any true shortstops who would provide much improvement available.

 

There are bullpen options, but any starting pitchers have concerns and warts. It's going to be tough to make any significant upgrades over the next 11 days.

Out of all the options, Griffey makes sense. It just seems like a fit.

 

Except for the cost to get him. The issue with Griffey is the Reds will likely want a package that includes one of Hill or Marshall, and without adding another starter, the Cubs can't afford to pay that price.

I think the Reds would be willing to package Kyle Loshe into any deal. He's going to be traded, the question is where.

 

That's kind and generous and all, but no thanks.

[Flames24Rulz]

What SP is available that you would want? Vazquez maybe? Who do you move out of the rotation? I suppose it would have to be Marshall via trade, Marquis is making too much money and hasn't performed poorly enough to lose his spot (given that salary). Isnt Vazquez or any other available starter over Marshall just another marginal upgrade like we have discussed at positions? How about a dominant left setup guy that would allow us to put Eyre out to pasture.

 

Just say no to Vazquez. He has great stuff, but he can't put it together. The guy also seems like a total headcase. He's one of those pitchers who can have 5-6 great innings but have an inning where he gives up 5 runs. He's done that a ton outside of his days with Montreal. His K/BB ratio this year is real good, but do we really need to add a guy who is going to be extremely inconsistant for us? Not to mention the price that we would have to give up seeing how good he has pitched the last month or so as well as the fact that he is really the only decent pitcher on the trade market.

[Mephistopheles]

I wish there was a chart though that could give us a prediction based on the recent swing of winning we're having. Not based on our rate since June or so, but some kind of probability based on the schedule and predicted success.

 

we do have that and it's at 57 percent.

 

Ahh yes, that stat.

 

What exactly is the formula for it?

 

its not a formula. it's essentially using a program that simulates the rest of the season millions of times.

[Jazz]

Ok my 2 cents.

 

FIRST and foremost. While sammy has been good against lefties this year, and historically has mauled them, I think I'd be content with just platooning murton with floyd/jones. Either way though, I'd welcome Sammy in open arms, I love the guy.

 

2nd. The idea that a player can sway trade talks WITHOUT an NTC is just ridiculous, I think the examples of Soriano and Vazquez have already been brought up. Plain and simple, Sosa is just as likely to get traded if the GM wants it so as say, Ryan Theriot. THERE IS NO BASIS TO SAY OTHERWISE. The only reason that it wouldn't happen is if the GM's didn't want it to work out that way. Without an NTC, Sosa is as much a pawn as the next guy, 600 Home Runs or not. PERIOD.

 

3rdly, we won't get Sosa. Hendry isn't smart enough to see him as an upgrade, and wouldn't want him anyway, so this whole discussion is all for naught.

 

 

In general, this makes sense, but the argument you're giving is fairly abstract. It is possible, for instance, that Jon Daniels is an emotional man who would want to make sure that Sammy stays happy no matter where he is, or that Daniels made a verbal agreement with Sosa and is unwilling to break it without Sosa's consent. Although it is true that NTC-less players have no negotiating leverage built into their contracts, other factors sometimes apply.

 

But there you go, you said it yourself. Sosa isn't the reason, it's the GM's. It's Ultimately them that decide what he wants to do with a player without an NTC.

 

 

I dunno, it seems sort of facile to say that it depends only on the GM in a situation where the GM has decided to defer to the player. When a GM binds his future options by making a promise to a player, he gives up some of his decisionmaking power. When a GM promises a player that he will make every effort to accomodate him, then, insofar as the GM is honest, he has indeed transferred some power to the player.

 

Fair enough, but I don't believe that to be the case here, where Sosa was who had to pitch to the GM, not the other way around.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I just wish the Yankees had lost more and we'd gotten Posada to upgrade catcher instead of Kendall.

[Skyballer]

I just wish the Yankees had lost more and we'd gotten Posada to upgrade catcher instead of Kendall.

You just love Posada don't you, Don't get me wrong it'd be great to have him here

[Flames24Rulz]

I just wish the Yankees had lost more and we'd gotten Posada to upgrade catcher instead of Kendall.

 

It wouldn't matter if the Yankees were 20 under. I just wouldn't see Steinbrenner having a fire sale.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

Ok my 2 cents.

 

FIRST and foremost. While sammy has been good against lefties this year, and historically has mauled them, I think I'd be content with just platooning murton with floyd/jones. Either way though, I'd welcome Sammy in open arms, I love the guy.

 

2nd. The idea that a player can sway trade talks WITHOUT an NTC is just ridiculous, I think the examples of Soriano and Vazquez have already been brought up. Plain and simple, Sosa is just as likely to get traded if the GM wants it so as say, Ryan Theriot. THERE IS NO BASIS TO SAY OTHERWISE. The only reason that it wouldn't happen is if the GM's didn't want it to work out that way. Without an NTC, Sosa is as much a pawn as the next guy, 600 Home Runs or not. PERIOD.

 

3rdly, we won't get Sosa. Hendry isn't smart enough to see him as an upgrade, and wouldn't want him anyway, so this whole discussion is all for naught.

 

 

In general, this makes sense, but the argument you're giving is fairly abstract. It is possible, for instance, that Jon Daniels is an emotional man who would want to make sure that Sammy stays happy no matter where he is, or that Daniels made a verbal agreement with Sosa and is unwilling to break it without Sosa's consent. Although it is true that NTC-less players have no negotiating leverage built into their contracts, other factors sometimes apply.

 

But there you go, you said it yourself. Sosa isn't the reason, it's the GM's. It's Ultimately them that decide what he wants to do with a player without an NTC.

 

 

I dunno, it seems sort of facile to say that it depends only on the GM in a situation where the GM has decided to defer to the player. When a GM binds his future options by making a promise to a player, he gives up some of his decisionmaking power. When a GM promises a player that he will make every effort to accomodate him, then, insofar as the GM is honest, he has indeed transferred some power to the player.

 

Fair enough, but I don't believe that to be the case here, where Sosa was who had to pitch to the GM, not the other way around.

 

 

that may very well be true. I have no clue. I am arguing only for the abstract point. :D

[hankp101]

The way I talked myself into being okay with the Kendall trade was that if he sucked for the first month or so and Blanco didn't make it back, maybe Soto would get a real shot. So here is my question, can you guys think of a situation where a "name" player was acquired for the stretch run and then benched in favor of a rookie due to non-performance? I, unfortunately, can not. Hopefully Kendall will play well enough to make it a non-issue... Edited July 22, 2007 by hankp101

[SaorsaDaonnan]

I wish there was a chart though that could give us a prediction based on the recent swing of winning we're having. Not based on our rate since June or so, but some kind of probability based on the schedule and predicted success.

 

we do have that and it's at 57 percent.

 

Ahh yes, that stat.

 

What exactly is the formula for it?

 

its not a formula. it's essentially using a program that simulates the rest of the season millions of times.

 

Asmodai refers to this, or something like it:

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/ps_odds.php

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I just wish the Yankees had lost more and we'd gotten Posada to upgrade catcher instead of Kendall.

You just love Posada don't you, Don't get me wrong it'd be great to have him here

 

Not so much Posada; I'd just love to have a catcher with a .332/411/514 line.

[SaorsaDaonnan]

I just wish the Yankees had lost more and we'd gotten Posada to upgrade catcher instead of Kendall.

You just love Posada don't you, Don't get me wrong it'd be great to have him here

 

Not so much Posada; I'd just love to have a catcher with a .332/411/514 line.

 

lots of lust for players you can't have, Vance...

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I just wish the Yankees had lost more and we'd gotten Posada to upgrade catcher instead of Kendall.

You just love Posada don't you, Don't get me wrong it'd be great to have him here

 

Not so much Posada; I'd just love to have a catcher with a .332/411/514 line.

 

lots of lust for players you can't have, Vance...

 

I know....Posada was only a chance if the Yankees continued to massively suck. I still don't think they have a chance, but they are close enough not to become sellers.

[nilodnayr]

The way I talked myself into being okay with the Kendall trade was that if he sucked for the first month or so and Blanco didn't make it back, maybe Soto would get a real shot. So here is my question, can you guys think of a situation where a "name" player was acquired for the stretch run and then benched in favor of a rookie due to non-performance? I, unfortunately, can not. Hopefully Kendall will play well enough to make it a non-issue...

 

I think if you look at the combination of Izturis and Jones being established starters at the beginning of the year and losing their jobs with Bowen being acquired, sucking, and then being traded, its not unreasonable to believe that the current cubs decision makers would bench Kendall for a rookie.

[brinoch]

Unless you're going to go out and get a true impact player, I just don't see wasting prospects and cash for a marginal upgrade over own available options. Granted, I'm not in a decision-making position, but this seems pretty self-evident to me.

 

That's the problem. They may just be "marginal" upgrades but when you're around 89-90 runs each win brings your chances of making the playoffs up so much. All wins aren't created equally. Wins between 88 and 92 are the most valuable in baseball, economically and on the field wise.

 

You misunderstand me; I'm not arguing with you. I'm saying that unless you are going to get someone -- like Glaus in your example -- our internal options are pretty much all better than what's available on the market.

 

Pie is likely an upgrade over Jones/Pagan.

 

Murton is an upgrade over Floyd.

 

Cedeno/Theriot is an upgrade over the mess that was the first 60% of the season.

 

Now, there are players out there who are even greater upgrades than our internal options. For example, Griffey or Dunn in RF. Torii Hunter in CF.

 

For those not willing to go too far outside the box, I think Minnesota knows they are falling out the race, and I think Hunter might be available. His EqA is .289 right now; likewise, Rowand is lighting the world on fire with a .312 EqA. Dunn is at .295 and Griffey is at .311.

[Mephistopheles]

well even if we can squeeze out an extra win out of a couple low level trades....its a win thats useful

[brinoch]

well even if we can squeeze out an extra win out of a couple low level trades....its a win thats useful

 

Yes, the extra win is helpful, but you have to consider the future, too. If you can simultaneously develop Murton, Cedeno/Theriot, and Pie AND make the playoffs, that nicely sets you up for 2008.

 

In the case of the CF, Pie might not be quite ready. In that case, an upgrade to a rental like Lofton might make sense.

[Mephistopheles]

unfortunately the cubs didnt develop players when they were the third worst team in baseball (06) what makes you think theyre going to do it know.

 

 

hypothetically speaking it wont make a difference. murton is who he is. i already said not to upgrade over murton unless its big. im just saying one at cf, c or ss wouldnt be bad.

[brinoch]

unfortunately the cubs didnt develop players when they were the third worst team in baseball (06) what makes you think theyre going to do it know.

 

 

hypothetically speaking it wont make a difference. murton is who he is. i already said not to upgrade over murton unless its big. im just saying one at cf, c or ss wouldnt be bad.

 

A fair point -- and it's not just recently that the Cubs have had problems developing position players. It's a long-standing problem. Personally, I'd go after Hunter and Griffey and use Murton as bait in at least one of those deals.

[Mephistopheles]

im not so sure either of those teams value murt's skillset which is why i suggested someone like Oakland or Toronto.

[brinoch]

im not so sure either of those teams value murt's skillset which is why i suggested someone like Oakland or Toronto.

 

Well, he's not a relief pitcher, so I definitely don't think the Reds will want him. I don't know about Minny.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It's a shame that Tejada got hurt. He'd be the perfect fit for this team.

[Drew Doughty]

im not so sure either of those teams value murt's skillset which is why i suggested someone like Oakland or Toronto.

 

Well, he's not a relief pitcher, so I definitely don't think the Reds will want him. I don't know about Minny.

 

judging by some of the players they've employed or been low on, i don't think they'd really appreciate his skillset. On the other hand, he's cheap talent which probably would fit into their plans.

[brinoch]

It's a shame that Tejada got hurt. He'd be the perfect fit for this team.

 

He still might be, actually. On the other hand, who wants to take that risk?