Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed

[Knyption]

I'm not sure how this data stacks up against other information about teams, maybe one of the stat gurus can elaborate on the relevence of Runs Scored vs. Runs Allowed.

 

Right now the Cubs are at 142 RS 108 RA.

 

Compared to other NL Teams the cubs have the 2nd best ratio.

RS RA

Mets 161 104

Cubs 142 108

Mil 160 127

LA 141 117

 

Compared to the whole league, they are 3rd.

 

Boston

Mets

Cubs.

 

 

Does this mean we have a good team?

 

The pen has the most blame for the bad record so far...

 

Thoughts?

[TruffleShuffle]

The pen has the most blame for the bad record so far...

 

I'd also give a special mention to the inconsistent offense.

[KaiserCesar]

The Cubs record in 1 run games, 1-8 off the top of my head, shows me that there has been some level of unluckiness. If you get blown out a lot, you are going to have a better record than your RS/RA looks like, and if you lose a lot of close games, you are going to look better than your record. While you can't "make up" the games you were "supposed" to win, the RS/RA is just an indicator that better W/L performance is in the future if the team continues their current level of play.

[Knyption]

So the cubs need to hold leads.

 

I wonder how many of those 1 run games the cubs were winning at some point?

 

1-8 should it be more like 7-2?

[apete6]

So the cubs need to hold leads.

 

I wonder how many of those 1 run games the cubs were winning at some point?

 

1-8 should it be more like 7-2?

 

I've only got 6 one run games. According to my calculations, at least 2 should have been wins, and 2 additional could have gone either way. One of those was against MIL, so it is essentially a 4 or 5 game swing already this year. Here is the breakdown:

 

 

Friday 4/13 vs. Reds, lost 6-5, (Should be win, Zambrano blew 5-0 lead)

Sunday 4/15 vs. Reds, lost 1-0 (Should be Loss, Lohse owned us)

Tuesday 4/17 vs. Pads, lost 4-3 (should have lost, Pads could have won in about 5 innings in a row, we made several solid defensive plays)

Friday 4/19 vs. STL, lost 2-1 (could have won, many boneheaded plays and LOB)

Monday 4/23 vs. MIL, lost 5-4 (should have won, Eyre gave up 2 in 8th)

Monday 4/30 vs. PIT, lost 3-2 (could have won, Hill gave up run in7th, Wuertz blew it in 9th)

 

Good teams don't lose games like the 1st Reds game and the Milwaukee game. Oh well, hopefully we can leave that BS in the past.

[sunnydoo]

Pythag says we should be 18-11, hopefully this is an anomaly that will be worked out.

 

What i am concerned about is the #16 RPI we have and 9th in the NL at .499. Colorado is ahead of us, probably because of Strength of Schedule (theirs is a murderous .530), but going 15-14 v. a .492 aint good.

 

29 games played, so we are on the cusp of a statistical sample size.

 

LA is actually #1 at the moment, which kind of shocked me b/c i thought Milky was it for sure. Milky is #2, followed by Atlanta, Cleveland, and the RedSux.

[Mephistopheles]

dont be concerned with espns rpi. the cubs third order wl record is 17.6-11.4 which is something that adjusts for league, pitching, quality of batters faces, quality of pitchers faced among other technical things