Early pitching trends show same problems as last year

[TheDude]

I am a huge proponent of the idea that early season trends will not last in just about all areas of the game except pitching and walks. I'm not worried about the fact that the Cubs offense is middle-of-the-pack across the board right now.

 

But the pitching issues that plagued the Cubs throughout the entiore Dusty era are still here: walks, command, and control (or nerve). Lou is talking the right game, but the pitchers aren't listening.

 

The trends:

-Excellent BAA, as per usual

-Lots of Ks, as per usual

-Lots of walks, as per usual

-Inability to finish an inning

 

Of the 56 Runs this team has allowed in 14 games, an insane 77% (43) of them have been given up within one split: 2 outs and the opponent's guys in scoring position. The pitchers on this staff need to bear down and finish innings. Enough of this 2-out collapse nonsense.

 

Big Z has been the biggest problem so far, which is a bit sad. His 16 walks and 19 ER in 22 IP is inexcusable. As the undisputed ace of the staff, he needs to go out there and show everyone the real deal.

 

Lilly and Hill have been excellent. Minimal walks and minimal runs. The rest of the staff needs to get on board.

 

At this point, it's almost worth offering a fan generated bounty to the first Cubs pitcher that can get through a complete game in under a 100 pitches with no walks. Quadruple the bounty for Z, since the odds are near infinity to 1.

[98navigator]

I am a huge proponent of the idea that early season trends will not last in just about all areas of the game except pitching and walks. I'm not worried about the fact that the Cubs offense is middle-of-the-pack across the board right now.

 

But the pitching issues that plagued the Cubs throughout the entiore Dusty era are still here: walks, command, and control (or nerve). Lou is talking the right game, but the pitchers aren't listening.

 

The trends:

-Excellent BAA, as per usual

-Lots of Ks, as per usual

-Lots of walks, as per usual

-Inability to finish an inning

 

Of the 56 Runs this team has allowed in 14 games, an insane 77% (43) of them have been given up within one split: 2 outs and the opponent's guys in scoring position. The pitchers on this staff need to bear down and finish innings. Enough of this 2-out collapse nonsense.

 

Big Z has been the biggest problem so far, which is a bit sad. His 16 walks and 19 ER in 22 IP is inexcusable. As the undisputed ace of the staff, he needs to go out there and show everyone the real deal.

 

Lilly and Hill have been excellent. Minimal walks and minimal runs. The rest of the staff needs to get on board.

 

At this point, it's almost worth offering a fan generated bounty to the first Cubs pitcher that can get through a complete game in under a 100 pitches with no walks. Quadruple the bounty for Z, since the odds are near infinity to 1.

 

I believe Hill would have done that in his first start against the Brewers if the Cubs had not been leading by so many runs. He was at 78 pitches and no walks through 7IP.

[CubinNY]

I am a huge proponent of the idea that early season trends will not last in just about all areas of the game except pitching and walks. I'm not worried about the fact that the Cubs offense is middle-of-the-pack across the board right now.

 

But the pitching issues that plagued the Cubs throughout the entiore Dusty era are still here: walks, command, and control (or nerve). Lou is talking the right game, but the pitchers aren't listening.

 

The trends:

-Excellent BAA, as per usual

-Lots of Ks, as per usual

-Lots of walks, as per usual

-Inability to finish an inning

 

Of the 56 Runs this team has allowed in 14 games, an insane 77% (43) of them have been given up within one split: 2 outs and the opponent's guys in scoring position. The pitchers on this staff need to bear down and finish innings. Enough of this 2-out collapse nonsense.

 

Big Z has been the biggest problem so far, which is a bit sad. His 16 walks and 19 ER in 22 IP is inexcusable. As the undisputed ace of the staff, he needs to go out there and show everyone the real deal.

 

Lilly and Hill have been excellent. Minimal walks and minimal runs. The rest of the staff needs to get on board.

 

At this point, it's almost worth offering a fan generated bounty to the first Cubs pitcher that can get through a complete game in under a 100 pitches with no walks. Quadruple the bounty for Z, since the odds are near infinity to 1.

It's kind of strange that you would use a statistic with almost no predictive validity and at the same time ignore others with predictive validity.

 

BA w/RISP has almost no predictive value (i.e., gving up 2 out hits w/risp).

 

However, The Cubs woeful OBP is predictive of a crappy baseball team.

[TheDude]

It's kind of strange that you would use a statistic with almost no predictive validity and at the same time ignore others with predictive validity.

 

How did you figure I ignored OBP? Simply because I'm talking pitching and not hitting?

[CubinNY]

It's kind of strange that you would use a statistic with almost no predictive validity and at the same time ignore others with predictive validity.

 

How did you figure I ignored OBP? Simply because I'm talking pitching and not hitting?

 

The jist I got from your post is that the Cubs are sucking becuase they "can't finish off an inning". You showed a statistic that detailed the Cubs problems in RA with two outs.

 

That is a problem to be sure, but the problem holds very little in the way of predicting how the season shakes out.

 

On the other hand you said you weren't worried about the offense. The Cubs offensive problems are very predictive of how the season will shake out if current trends hold.

[TheDude]

The jist I got from your post is that the Cubs are sucking becuase they "can't finish off an inning". You showed a statistic that detailed the Cubs problems in RA with two outs.

 

That was one of four points, yes.

 

On the other hand you said you weren't worried about the offense. The Cubs offensive problems are very predictive of how the season will shake out if current trends hold.

This is because I believe primarily the offensive numbers will align by the end of the year with predictability, because hitting for this many veterans is pretty flat overall.

 

However, pitching isn't as flat. It'll be more difficult to predict Lilly, Marquis, and a revolving door 5th spot than a relatively stable daily lineup (when healthy).

[rynefan]

I decided to take a step back and see this whole season/team from a distance. I know they have the ability to hit and pitch and field. No question. But I'm not sure if they have the ability to really pull it all together and catch fire. Not getting a good gut feeling.

[apete6]

I decided to take a step back and see this whole season/team from a distance. I know they have the ability to hit and pitch and field. No question. But I'm not sure if they have the ability to really pull it all together and catch fire. Not getting a good gut feeling.

 

=D> =D> =D>

[Derwood]

Preseason, we expected the pitching to rank like this:

 

1. Zambrano

2. Hill

3. Lilly

4. Miller

5. Marquis

 

but it has really been:

 

1. Hill

2. Lilly

3. Marquis

4. Miller

5. Zambrano

 

The bullpen was also thought to be a strength but has been feast or famine

[seanimal]

The Cubs offensive problems are very predictive of how the season will shake out if current trends hold.

 

Pretty big if, I would say. For instance, do you think that Alfonso Soriano's OBP is going to stay in the .288 range? Matt Murton's .310? Michael Barrett's .302?

 

Granted, D-Lee will fall and so will Aramis, but probably not as much as those other three will go up. Plus we've got Ronny Cedeno and Hendry Blanco stinking up our averages.

 

I can see your argument, but I think it's more likely that we don't have nearly as much to worry about with our offense than we do with our starting pitching.

[CubinNY]

The Cubs offensive problems are very predictive of how the season will shake out if current trends hold.

 

Pretty big if, I would say. For instance, do you think that Alfonso Soriano's OBP is going to stay in the .288 range? Matt Murton's .310? Michael Barrett's .302?

 

Granted, D-Lee will fall and so will Aramis, but probably not as much as those other three will go up. Plus we've got Ronny Cedeno and Hendry Blanco stinking up our averages.

 

I can see your argument, but I think it's more likely that we don't have nearly as much to worry about with our offense than we do with our starting pitching.

 

I hope you're right, but I doubt it. Soriano's career OBP is a pedestrian .325 and Matt Murton is not playing every day or even every other day.

 

The entire point of my position on this is that, claiming that the Cubs won't be good this year becasue they "can't finish off an inning" is pretty far out there when one considers the other tell-tale signs of why the Cubs suck.

Edited April 19, 2007 by CubinNY

[Drew Doughty]

Preseason, we expected the pitching to rank like this:

 

1. Zambrano

2. Hill

3. Lilly

4. Miller

5. Marquis

 

but it has really been:

 

1. Hill

2. Lilly

3. Marquis

4. Miller

5. Zambrano

 

The bullpen was also thought to be a strength but has been feast or famine

 

zambrano has still been better than miller by a good margin. and i expected marquis to be better than miller (whose sack of crap is lighter, etc), but maybe that's just me.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

zambrano has still been better than miller by a good margin. and i expected marquis to be better than miller (whose sack of crap is lighter, etc), but maybe that's just me.

 

Zambrano's been better, but it's only by a slight margin.

[Derwood]

zambrano has still been better than miller by a good margin. and i expected marquis to be better than miller (whose sack of crap is lighter, etc), but maybe that's just me.

 

Zambrano's been better, but it's only by a slight margin.

 

Zambrano's ERA+ is 50

Miller's ERA+ is 43

 

OUCH

 

By comparison:

 

Hill: 608 :shock:

Lilly: 165

Marquis: 148

[VanceJergins]

 

The bullpen was also thought to be a strength but has been feast or famine

 

To be fair, the famine can be attributed solely to Ohman and Eyre and I think one bad outing for Howry.

[rawaction]

 

The bullpen was also thought to be a strength but has been feast or famine

 

To be fair, the famine can be attributed solely to Ohman and Eyre and I think one bad outing for Howry.

 

You do know that's 1/2 the bullpen right? The other half has 0 ERAs. That's the definition of feast or famine.

[TheDude]

The entire point of my position on this is that, claiming that the Cubs won't be good this year becasue they "can't finish off an inning" is pretty far out there when one considers the other tell-tale signs of why the Cubs suck.

 

I always seem to have this issue with your replies. Not only have you repeatedly sniped one point out of several (trying to extrapolate that one point to the entire argument), but now you're attributing a position and opinion to me that I did not state, and can't even be reasonably inferred.

 

Nowhere in my original post did I state 'the Cubs won't be good this year' or that they 'suck'. I don't believe either to be true. Please stop adding your opinion to my position and stop trying to snipe one point of out many and claim it to be the entire discussion.

 

I'm talking about trends in pitching that result in the current record. I'm talking about how these trends reflect upon current management, despite a management change. I'm talking about walks, control, and command for the staff.

[Banedon]

zambrano has still been better than miller by a good margin. and i expected marquis to be better than miller (whose sack of crap is lighter, etc), but maybe that's just me.

 

Zambrano's been better, but it's only by a slight margin.

 

Zambrano's ERA+ is 50

Miller's ERA+ is 43

 

OUCH

 

By comparison:

 

Hill: 608 :shock:

Lilly: 165

Marquis: 148

 

LOL @ Hill. I know it's early but that's crazy.

[VanceJergins]

 

The bullpen was also thought to be a strength but has been feast or famine

 

To be fair, the famine can be attributed solely to Ohman and Eyre and I think one bad outing for Howry.

 

You do know that's 1/2 the bullpen right? The other half has 0 ERAs. That's the definition of feast or famine.

 

No, thats 2/7 of the bullpen. I wasn't counting Howry as part of that, just saying he had one bad outing, which happens to everyone. My point was that we have 2 bad relievers so its not like the bullpen is unreliable, its that 2/7 of the bullpen is unreliable.

[seanimal]

I hope you're right, but I doubt it. Soriano's career OBP is a pedestrian .325 and Matt Murton is not playing every day or even every other day.

 

While it may be pedestrian, and I expect Soriano to be right around his career average this season, it's still a 40 point improvement from where he's at now. Matt Murton, admittedly, is a question mark. He only has 25 AB's so far, but I would assume that as the season goes on, he'll get a larger share of the AB's, but at this point, it's not necessarily an assumption based wholly in reality. We'll have to wait and see with him.

 

The entire point of my position on this is that, claiming that the Cubs won't be good this year becasue they "can't finish off an inning" is pretty far out there when one considers the other tell-tale signs of why the Cubs suck.

 

I agree.

 

Finishing off an inning can mean a lot of things, but in the end it doesn't really mean anything. Last week finishing off an inning was a matter of Lou still learning the bullpen staff and their correct uses, while this week it was a matter of our bullpen being incredibly taxed and not being able to use the bullpen in appropriate ways. This shouldn't be much of an issue after today, I can see Hill going 7 pretty easily, so that's only two innings of work, and voila!, fresh bullpen. Lets hope anyway.

[CubinNY]

The entire point of my position on this is that, claiming that the Cubs won't be good this year becasue they "can't finish off an inning" is pretty far out there when one considers the other tell-tale signs of why the Cubs suck.

 

I always seem to have this issue with your replies. Not only have you repeatedly sniped one point out of several (trying to extrapolate that one point to the entire argument), but now you're attributing a position and opinion to me that I did not state, and can't even be reasonably inferred.

 

Nowhere in my original post did I state 'the Cubs won't be good this year' or that they 'suck'. I don't believe either to be true. Please stop adding your opinion to my position and stop trying to snipe one point of out many and claim it to be the entire discussion.

 

I'm talking about trends in pitching that result in the current record. I'm talking about how these trends reflect upon current management, despite a management change. I'm talking about walks, control, and command for the staff.

 

Sorry, what is you believe then?

 

Here is what I believe:

 

1. The Cubs have the same problems with walking batters that they've had previously (mostly Z and the relief pitchers)

2. The offense has the same problems that they've had previously (they can't get on base)

3. Their "nerve", "manliness", "stones", "balls", "clutchiness" or "anti-clutchiness" is a non sequitier.

 

If you add 1 and 2 together it doesn't bode well for the season. It reflects badly on one James Hendry, General Manager, Chicago Cubs, National League Ball Club.

[Dr. Cub]

The entire point of my position on this is that, claiming that the Cubs won't be good this year becasue they "can't finish off an inning" is pretty far out there when one considers the other tell-tale signs of why the Cubs suck.

 

I always seem to have this issue with your replies. Not only have you repeatedly sniped one point out of several (trying to extrapolate that one point to the entire argument), but now you're attributing a position and opinion to me that I did not state, and can't even be reasonably inferred.

 

Nowhere in my original post did I state 'the Cubs won't be good this year' or that they 'suck'. I don't believe either to be true. Please stop adding your opinion to my position and stop trying to snipe one point of out many and claim it to be the entire discussion.

 

I'm talking about trends in pitching that result in the current record. I'm talking about how these trends reflect upon current management, despite a management change. I'm talking about walks, control, and command for the staff.

 

Sorry, what is you believe then?

 

Here is what I believe:

 

1. The Cubs have the same problems with walking batters that they've had previously (mostly Z and the relief pitchers)

2. The offense has the same problems that they've had previously (they can't get on base)

3. Their "nerve", "manliness", "stones", "balls", "clutchiness" or "anti-clutchiness" is a non sequitier.

If you add 1 and 2 together it doesn't bode well for the season. It reflects badly on one James Hendry, General Manager, Chicago Cubs, National League Ball Club.

 

This is what I love about this site. As long as you can hide your insults in a "I'm attacking the post, not the poster" sort of condescending way, everything is all good.

[CubinNY]

The entire point of my position on this is that, claiming that the Cubs won't be good this year becasue they "can't finish off an inning" is pretty far out there when one considers the other tell-tale signs of why the Cubs suck.

 

I always seem to have this issue with your replies. Not only have you repeatedly sniped one point out of several (trying to extrapolate that one point to the entire argument), but now you're attributing a position and opinion to me that I did not state, and can't even be reasonably inferred.

 

Nowhere in my original post did I state 'the Cubs won't be good this year' or that they 'suck'. I don't believe either to be true. Please stop adding your opinion to my position and stop trying to snipe one point of out many and claim it to be the entire discussion.

 

I'm talking about trends in pitching that result in the current record. I'm talking about how these trends reflect upon current management, despite a management change. I'm talking about walks, control, and command for the staff.

 

Sorry, what is you believe then?

 

Here is what I believe:

 

1. The Cubs have the same problems with walking batters that they've had previously (mostly Z and the relief pitchers)

2. The offense has the same problems that they've had previously (they can't get on base)

3. Their "nerve", "manliness", "stones", "balls", "clutchiness" or "anti-clutchiness" is a non sequitier.

If you add 1 and 2 together it doesn't bode well for the season. It reflects badly on one James Hendry, General Manager, Chicago Cubs, National League Ball Club.

 

This is what I love about this site. As long as you can hide your insults in a "I'm attacking the post, not the poster" sort of condescending way, everything is all good.

 

I don't see that as an insult in any way, shape, or form. Is disagreing with someone an insult?

 

Really, I don't understand the person's original point.

[jjgman21]

on what I think is the topic of this thread, it's half and half. half the staff is walking guys left and right, the other half isn't walking anyone. the same guys walking batters are the guys who can't get out of innings. bad combination. the exception is Marquis, who has been walking batters but not allowing any hits.

 

on Howry...one bad outting? he was terrible the one game in Cincy, struggled against Cincy about a week ago, and was bailed out by Pie a couple days ago. Bob's been shaky at best, although he was hosed twice by the ump in his 'worst' outting.

 

on obp, I pointed out about ten days ago how the first three weeks of the season the Cubs face a who's who of the best pitchers in the NL at not walking batters, so I expected that to surpress walk totals. what I didn't expect was to face Chris "Maddux of '94" Capuano, Woody "Maddux of '95" Williams, Kyle "Maddux of '96" Lohse, and Greg "Maddux of '97" Maddux when it comes to getting the outside corner against righties. they've also had an unusual number of "at 'em" ball games early on.

 

while I haven't been pleased with alot of the ab's I've seen or the inability to adjust, this Cubs team has been up against the wall when it comes obp the first few weeks of the season here. alot of that can be attributed to things that only fall into the catagory of luck, ie. bad umping, bad matchups for their lineup, ave way below expected for LD%, etc. as alluded to by some poster earlier, waaaaay to early to tell.

 

I think they will end up in the upper half, and that's all that was expected. things will level off, and should be given a chance to level off before any conclusions are made on what this offense will do in terms of obp. afterall, this was expected to be one of the top slugging offenses in the NL, but they have been quite middling, so you could just as easily blame the struggles on lack of power for the lack of success up to this point of the season.

 

nonetheless, yes, the offense has been disappointing, but the fact of the matter is, but for 4 guys we all expected to be at least somewhat decent, the Cubs would have a really good record right now. Z, Eyre, Ohman, and Howry.