3/19ST Cubs (ss) Vs. Mariners (ss)/Cubs @ Brewers 3:05 CT

[Omar]

Looks like Miller only got 3 innings. Howry in.

[Jehrico]

... PECOTA has been deadly accurate in recent rookie projections...

 

I know it turned out deadly for the Cubs the last two years, last year when Cedeno didn't come close to his PECOTA, and two years ago when DuBois didn't come close to his PECOTA.

I don't think PECOTA has ever been very good for rookies.

 

I disagree. Of the prominent rookies from 2005, only Cano and Reed look off to me:

 

Robinson Cano

2005 PECOTA: .255/.298/.389

Real 2005: .297/.320/.458

 

Willy Taveras

2005 PECOTA: .252/.330/.334

Real 2005: .291/.325/.341

 

Clint Barmes

2005 PECOTA: .272/.315/.424

Real 2005: .289/.330/.434

 

Ryan Howard

2005 PECOTA: .259/.341/.508

Real 2005: .288/.356/.567

 

Jonny Gomes

2005 PECOTA: .265/.366/.491

Real 2005: .282/.372/.534

 

Garrett Atkins

2005 PECOTA: .287/.354/.461

Real 2005: .287/.347/.426

 

Dan Johnson

2005 PECOTA: .259/.343/.445

Real 2005: .275/.355/.451

 

Ryan Langerhans

2005 PECOTA: .265/.357/.456

Real 2005: .267/.348/.426

 

Russ Adams

2005 PECOTA: .268/.338/.396

Real 2005: .256/.325/.383

 

Jeremy Reed

2005 PECOTA: .286/.353/.423

Real 2005: .254/.322/.352

 

Mark Teahen

2005 PECOTA: .251/.322/.375

Real 2005: .246/.309/.376

 

Nick Swisher

2005 PECOTA: .244/.351/.423

Real 2005: .236/.322/.446

It's easy to back up a statement like that when you can hand pick what guys stats you use to back it up. Those guys aren't prominent just because they are, they are prominent because they did well. PECOTA projects numbers like that for a ton of rookies, only a few do that well. That's why the "prominent" ones stand out and make PECOTA look good. The standard deviation for rooks is considerably higher than veterans across the board. It's not a great, or even good, tool for projecting rookies. That's not to say there are any better tools out there though. I'd be foolish to say Pie is likely to his as well as Jones this year just based on Pecota.

 

I didn't handpick the players. I pulled them off the first blog I could find that listed them. If you'd rather pick a different list of players, feel free.

 

It's not a great or even good tool for projecting rookie performance even though it got most of the performances listed above right? Okay.

.304 .333 .464

.254 .315 .427

.249 .319 .438

 

Those were Jones' 3 years before joining the Cubs. Do you think he's more likely to replicate 2006 or 2003-2005?

 

Let me try to explain this a different way. It projects most rookies to put up numbers that are comparable to what they've done in the minors. Most rookies will not perform nearly as well their first year in the big leagues as they did in the minors. A select few, i.e. the cream of the crop, will perform on par with their minor league numbers. You've just highlighted the cream of the crop to back up your claim. The average deviation for a typical rookie (not the top 5% who don't suffer much of a dropoff after being promoted) is significantly higher than it is for a typical veteran with 3+ years in the league. Just because you can find a few notable cases where PECOTA was close doesn't mean anything. I can predict the Cubs will win every game they play. I'll be right somewhere between 60 and 90 times. It doesn't mean anything.

[98navigator]

Hmmmm, Miler is either hurt or reached his pitch count very early. :-k

[Rob]

BP 2006 projected a .274/.320/.387 line for Cedeno and had this to say.

 

"As a shortstop, there's little he can't do: his tremendous arm conjures up memories of Shawon Dunston, but cedeno has softer hands and better range. Whether or not he'll become a better hitter is the question. He has a nice, even swing, but he's easily overpowered, and has no notion of working the count. Promoted aggressively throughout his career, he could struggle for a year or two before settling in as a genuinely useful hitter in the big leagues. He's penciled in as the Opening Day shortstop, but it remains to be seen if the Cubs can show some patience and let him grow up in the big leagues, or if they'll get frustrated and turn to Neifi Perez."

[Laura]

I take it Gallagher's shoulder is fine?

 

The Brewers announcers said in passing that he was nursing a sore shoulder. It's the first I've heard of that, if true.

 

I was a little surprised to see him start the 4th.

[CubColtPacer]

Miller got through 3 1/3:

 

his line-3 1/3 IP, 6 H, 4 R, 3 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 1 HR

He was ok except he gave up the one big swing to Beltre (3 run HR) that cost him his entire outing.

Theriot committed an error in the 4th, but Howry came in and got the Cubs out of the inning with no damage.

[98navigator]

A 12th run has scored in the other game

[karenmac]

mark reed in to pinch hit - just got thrown out 3rd to 1st. Prince has bad footwork

[cheapseats]

 

It's not a great or even good tool for projecting rookie performance even though it got most of the performances listed above right? Okay.

 

.304 .333 .464

.254 .315 .427

.249 .319 .438

 

Those were Jones' 3 years before joining the Cubs. Do you think he's more likely to replicate 2006 or 2003-2005?

 

When you look at his home/away splits for his last 5 years in the Metrodome, it will be more likely he will be closer to 2006 than 2004-2005.

 

Not to completely jump into this...but I'd also point out that if you add in last years numbers to those, you'd really have no reason to think he wouldn't hit close to .300 with a .330+ OBP...he did it in 2 of the 4 years in question.

 

I don't think he'll hit close to .300 (of course that depends on what one considers "close"), but I don't think he'll have a .315 OBP like he did in 2004, either.

 

Jacque's weighted mean PECOTA for 2007:

 

.279 .337 .459

 

Bill James, Marcel, ZIPS, and CHONE all predict OBP in the .320-.330 range and SLG in the .456-.459 range.

[98navigator]

Pie triples

[cheapseats]

 

Let me try to explain this a different way. It projects most rookies to put up numbers that are comparable to what they've done in the minors.

 

You've said this before, and it's simply not true. Davenport adjusts for league difficulty and park effects.

 

Feel free to provide examples.

[98navigator]

1 out

 

Pie at 3B

 

DeRosa walks

[98navigator]

Gammons on to talk about the Brewers...

 

He doesn't think any team in the division ill win 88-90 games (85 wins will probably win the division).

[98navigator]

The interviewer is posing questions that suggest Suppan will be the savior of the Brewers

[98navigator]

2 outs, Jones strikes out

 

Runners on the corners

 

Ward at the plate

[PrimeTime]

I still don't know why we threw money at DeRosa...I wouldv'e loved to have The Riot the everyday second baseman.

[98navigator]

Ward Doubles, 2 runs score

 

10-4 Cubs

 

LHP on the mound now

Edited March 19, 2007 by 98navigator

[Jehrico]

 

Let me try to explain this a different way. It projects most rookies to put up numbers that are comparable to what they've done in the minors.

 

You've said this before, and it's simply not true. Davenport adjusts for league difficulty and park effects.

 

Feel free to provide examples.

That's the problem with your argument. There's over a hundred guys who were rookies last year. You can find examples on both sides. I'm talking across the board. You really think I can't find some examples of where PECOTA was way wrong on a rookie? And I'm not talking about park effects or league difficulty. The league diffculty you're talking about, I believe, is West to Central, AL to NL. Not AAA to MLB. Take Pie for example. If he does another year in AAA, he's likely to hit the line that was quoted earlier. It's not reasonable to expect him to do as well in MLB as he would do if he did another year in AAA.

[98navigator]

I still don't know why we threw money at DeRosa...I wouldv'e loved to have The Riot the everyday second baseman.

 

I agree but I think they were afraid to trust Theriot's small sample of success from last season.

[TruffleShuffle]

I still don't know why we threw money at DeRosa...I wouldv'e loved to have The Riot the everyday second baseman.

 

Probably because the last time the Cubs made somebody a starter after watching him have an anomolously good previous year, they got to watch Ronny Cedeno play a full year as one of the worst hitters in baseball.

[Drew Doughty]

 

Let me try to explain this a different way. It projects most rookies to put up numbers that are comparable to what they've done in the minors.

 

You've said this before, and it's simply not true. Davenport adjusts for league difficulty and park effects.

 

Feel free to provide examples.

That's the problem with your argument. There's over a hundred guys who were rookies last year. You can find examples on both sides. I'm talking across the board. You really think I can't find some examples of where PECOTA was way wrong on a rookie? And I'm not talking about park effects or league difficulty. The league diffculty you're talking about, I believe, is West to Central, AL to NL. Not AAA to MLB. Take Pie for example. If he does another year in AAA, he's likely to hit the line that was quoted earlier. It's not reasonable to expect him to do as well in MLB as he would do if he did another year in AAA.

 

That's not true. They adjust for league (it's called league equivalents, several sites have their own system, PECOTA has one of their own).

 

I don't really care about the rest of the argument. I think PECOTA does a generally solid job of projecting hitters -- including rookies.

[98navigator]

Murton grounds out 4-3 to end the inning

[Brian]

I still don't know why we threw money at DeRosa...I wouldv'e loved to have The Riot the everyday second baseman.

 

Probably because the last time the Cubs made somebody a starter after watching him have an anomolously good previous year, they got to watch Ronny Cedeno play a full year as one of the worst hitters in baseball.

 

It's not like Derosa has a long pedigree of success either, though.

[Rob]

 

Let me try to explain this a different way. It projects most rookies to put up numbers that are comparable to what they've done in the minors.

 

You've said this before, and it's simply not true. Davenport adjusts for league difficulty and park effects.

 

Feel free to provide examples.

That's the problem with your argument. There's over a hundred guys who were rookies last year. You can find examples on both sides. I'm talking across the board. You really think I can't find some examples of where PECOTA was way wrong on a rookie? And I'm not talking about park effects or league difficulty. The league diffculty you're talking about, I believe, is West to Central, AL to NL. Not AAA to MLB. Take Pie for example. If he does another year in AAA, he's likely to hit the line that was quoted earlier. It's not reasonable to expect him to do as well in MLB as he would do if he did another year in AAA.

 

If you want to write up a list of who all broke their rookie eligibility last year, I'll post what PECOTA projected for them last season (assuming they are in the book, naturally).

[satxcubfan]

Man, I missed it, I love Family Guy