Statistics & You

[Rob]

If memory serves correctly, only three teams last year had a net positive in EqSBR. Seeing as how everybody keeps posting random hypothetical situations regarding when to give the green light, I would always lean towards not letting him cost the team runs.

 

Of course, there are extreme circumstances that would change the value of a stolen base enough to make it a worthwhile risk... but those should be handled on an individual basis.

 

I've always leaned towards more aggressive running with more information.

 

There's nothing more important as far as predicting what will likely occur if you know the times for the runner, P, and C.

 

Given current SB ratios, I can't imagine any intelligent manager wanting a player's SB ratio more than the times of the runner, P, and C.

 

Accumulative stats go in the toilet compared to play by play data, I'm glad the stat world is catching up to that idea.

 

On top of knowing the times of the runner, P, and C, it's also important to know the judgement of the players involved.

 

As a general rule, giving somebody like Soriano or Juan Pierre the green light to steal pretty much whenever they feel like it is a horrible idea.

 

On the other hand, I had no problem with Maddux getting the green light. He steals once a year if and only if he has a perfect read.

 

I guess what I'm saying is that for anyone short of the absolute most intelligent players in the game, SB are a valuable tool only if executed well, and the situations well evaluated.

[UK1679666180]

Before the game, it's up to the coaching staff to point out to the runners, if the opposition is easier to steal off of b/c of who's in the game for them.

 

In the minors, I would give them green light whenever they wanted w/out sending them to go or putting up the stop sign (unless the game is already decided) and let them develop their own learning curve as far as good situational running as well as the ability to improve reading the pitcher and feeling comfortable stealing when they're ready.

[Rob]

Before the game, it's up to the coaching staff to point out to the runners, if the opposition is easier to steal off of b/c of who's in the game for them.

 

In the minors, I would give them green light whenever they wanted w/out sending them to go or putting up the stop sign (unless the game is already decided) and let them develop their own learning curve as far as good situational running as well as the ability to improve reading the pitcher and feeling comfortable stealing when they're ready.

 

Oh, in the minors, of course. The minors are there to evaluate players, not to win games. If I find out somebody can steal like Beltran or Ichiro, that's another story entirely... but those kinds of guys are few and far between.

[UK1679666180]

Before each game, a member from the coaching staff should get the advanced scouting reports and tell the players how good the move to 1B and the times from the P/C. From that, he can mentioned to the players whether or not it would be wise to be more aggressive.

 

That's how I think it would be wise to handle every player that is a baserunning threat. I'd have it posted in the dugout in the reg. season, during ST mention how quick they are at stealing 2B.

[Mephistopheles]

sample size

 

Meaning? I'm aware of the small sample size but how often do you continue to steal with him? What if he gets thrown out the next time and is now 2-5? When is the sample the correct size?

 

 

oh lord. Assume you have some wierd coin where the chances of it landing on heads is 70% and the chances of it landing on tails are 30%. Assume you flip it 4 times, the probability of that coin landing on heads two times or less is over 34%. That's one in three. The chances of it going two for five is still about 1 in 8. Those are pretty high. However, at the point after the fourth flip, the FIRST FOUR EVENTS HAVE NO IMPACT ON THE NEXT ONE.

 

of course stealing bases is not done in a vacuum probability matter, until the sample size is pretty very large, we're talking at least 25-30. In four attempts, what if two of them were in one game off say Carlos Zambrano (who has a great slidestep) and Hank White (who has a strong arm).

 

Theres also a belief that if you play more and run more, you're going to get better, at BP they call playing more means more production the Jeremy Giambi effect.

 

If you're flipping coins you have no adverse effects correct? I don't think you're analogy works here.

 

then you missed the point of my entire post.

[TB_11]

Every team knows the time of the runner to steal 2B, every team knows to pitcher's delivery time to home, and the pop time of the C to 2B. Factor in the quality of the pitcher's move to 1B and the situation of the game and ball/strike count of the AB (pitchout probability) combined with everything mentioned in the previous sentence to give you an idea of whether or not it is a good idea to steal.

 

SB% ratio tells you what HAS already happened, what I mentioned above gives you a much better idea of what WILL happen.

 

If you a time from pitcher to C to 2B at about 3.35 and the runner can get there at about 3.2, if the situation benefits advancing a runner and outs aren't as much of a premium (you're leading), why wouldn't you try?

 

I agree. These are the numbers I would go by.

 

Right...... Cuse your point about how or why you would use SB success rate to determine whether a runner should be sent is valid. I'm not sure the SB success rate would be used to base future decisions on, but is used as a quick-and-dirty method to evaluate whether past decisions at stolen bases were beneficial as a whole.