Red Sox vs. Cubs pitchers wager...need suggestions.

[Danny82]

This isn't really "fantasy" per se, but close enough. OK, here's the background. I have a co-worker who is a big Red Sox fans and we got to talking pitching last week and agreed to place a wager on the Cubs vs. Red Sox pitchers. He gets to choose three Red Sox starters and I get to choose three Cubs starters to match his. Best two out of three wins. The categories, also rated by best two out of three, are strikeouts, wins, and ERA.

 

He has chosen Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Papelbon. I have an idea of how I want to match up the Cubs, but wanted to hear your suggestions first.

 

Thanks.

[Drew Doughty]

Zambrano and Hill obviously.

 

Want to chance it with Prior? If Prior stays healthy you'll put up a good fight.

[Danny82]

Those are the three I am looking at, but precisely how do I match them up with his pitchers?

[wolf stansson]

Zambrano, Hill and Lilly. Prior if you want to take the rist to either win it by a lot or lose it by a lot.

 

If you lose because Prior is injured you have a great built in Dustyesque excuse.

[CubColtPacer]

I think you have to play it safe and go with Z, Hill, and Lilly on that one-they are the most sure things to stay in the rotation for the most starts, and with the categories you've picked 2 out of the 3 get better the more starts they have. Prior would be my 4th choice, but he's a question mark for the entire season, and I think Lilly gives you enough of a chance that you don't need to take the gamble on Prior.

[CubColtPacer]

Those are the three I am looking at, but precisely how do I match them up with his pitchers?

 

Honestly? I'd rank the Red Sox pitchers according to those categories (I'd rank the Cubs options as Z, Hill, Lilly, Prior as the 4th) and then I'd put Z against the best starter from the Red Sox, Lilly against the second best, and Hill against the third best.

I do that for one reason-I think Z is going to beat any of those 3 Red Sox pitchers, so you want to take out their best. I think Hill is the second best option, but you only need to win 2 out of 3-make it a more guaranteed win by putting him against the worst one of the 3 for the Red Sox. Then, you maybe sacrifice Lilly, but he still has a chance against the second best person.

[RichHillIsABeast]

Hmmm, I'd like to include Prior in my list, but if goes down with an injury, you're done. Maybe you could ask if you could include Prior until he goes down with an injury and switch to Lilly from that point on. :lol:

 

Zambrano (for ERA, W, and Ks)

Hill (Ks aplenty)

Lilly (mediocre ERA, decent W, good Ks)

 

 

I think the Cubs starters will do very well in terms of wins thanks to the run support they'll get this year. They might actually be able to give up 4-5 runs and still get the W. The Red Sox are facing good offenses in their division and throughout the AL, so I think you have a decent advantage here.

 

If you can include Prior, I think you've got it made. Z/Prior/Hill will dominate Ks.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

When is the deadline to submit your list?

 

If you have to do it right now, I'd choose Zambrano, Hill, Lilly.

 

If you can wait until the last day of spring training, then wait and monitor how Prior holds up this spring.

[Danny82]

I guess I am just more of a risk taker, I was thinking of taking Prior and matching him up with Papelbon, since Papelbon is sort of an unknown too.

 

The rest: Z vs. Beckett and Hill vs. Matsuzaka.

 

I think Z vs. Beckett gets me a near sure winner out the gate (Beckett has not approached Z's K totals the last three years) and then I just hope for one of the other two to come through.

 

Bad strategy?

[Danny82]

When is the deadline to submit your list?

 

If you have to do it right now, I'd choose Zambrano, Hill, Lilly.

 

If you can wait until the last day of spring training, then wait and monitor how Prior holds up this spring.

 

Today. He's no dummy. Well, not totally.

[Danny82]

Those are the three I am looking at, but precisely how do I match them up with his pitchers?

 

Honestly? I'd rank the Red Sox pitchers according to those categories (I'd rank the Cubs options as Z, Hill, Lilly, Prior as the 4th) and then I'd put Z against the best starter from the Red Sox, Lilly against the second best, and Hill against the third best.

I do that for one reason-I think Z is going to beat any of those 3 Red Sox pitchers, so you want to take out their best. I think Hill is the second best option, but you only need to win 2 out of 3-make it a more guaranteed win by putting him against the worst one of the 3 for the Red Sox. Then, you maybe sacrifice Lilly, but he still has a chance against the second best person.

 

I like your line of thinking. The real question is how do I rank the Red Sox?

 

1. Matsuzaka (what do we really know?)

2. Beckett (last year's ERA a likely abberition).

3. Papelbon (surprised he took him over Schilling)

[Tracer Bullet]

I guess I am just more of a risk taker, I was thinking of taking Prior and matching him up with Papelbon, since Papelbon is sort of an unknown too.

 

The rest: Z vs. Beckett and Hill vs. Matsuzaka.

 

I think Z vs. Beckett gets me a near sure winner out the gate (Beckett has not approached Z's K totals the last three years) and then I just hope for one of the other two to come through.

 

Bad strategy?

 

I'd do Prior against Mats, Z against Beckett, and Hill against Paps.

 

Hill v. Mats is a bad matchup for you, so I'd throw Prior against him. If Mats is as good as advertised, not even a great Hill season will get the win for you. It's going to take a repeat of '03 for Prior or a great season from Z to beat him. If Prior is hurt or not his best, you only lost the matchup you thought you'd lose anyway. If Prior is what we've all wanted for the last 3 seasons - it'll take a great season for Mats to beat you.

 

Z against Beckett should be a clear W for you. Hill and Paps is pretty even, b/c of the uncertainty surrounding both.

[CubColtPacer]

Those are the three I am looking at, but precisely how do I match them up with his pitchers?

 

Honestly? I'd rank the Red Sox pitchers according to those categories (I'd rank the Cubs options as Z, Hill, Lilly, Prior as the 4th) and then I'd put Z against the best starter from the Red Sox, Lilly against the second best, and Hill against the third best.

I do that for one reason-I think Z is going to beat any of those 3 Red Sox pitchers, so you want to take out their best. I think Hill is the second best option, but you only need to win 2 out of 3-make it a more guaranteed win by putting him against the worst one of the 3 for the Red Sox. Then, you maybe sacrifice Lilly, but he still has a chance against the second best person.

 

I like your line of thinking. The real question is how do I rank the Red Sox?

 

1. Matsuzaka (what do we really know?)

2. Beckett (last year's ERA a likely abberition).

3. Papelbon (surprised he took him over Schilling)

 

That's probably the best rankings I can come up with also. That would be pretty likely to win as well if you put

Matsuzaka vs Z-you have to think Z will win, but like you said, who knows?

Hill vs Papelbon-Hill should go more innings, so more K's will almost certainly be yours-Hill will likely have a better ERA as well, so this category is likely yours

Lilly vs Beckett-not quite as much of a mismatch as you might think. Lilly has beaten Beckett in K's 2 out of the last 3 years-Beckett will likely take ERA if he comes back from the debacle last year, and then it will just come down to wins, which are unpredictable.

 

That's probably the way I'd match them up.

[Danny82]

As it stands now, and unless I see a reason to proceed differently, I'm going with:

 

Z vs. Matsuzaka

Hill vs. Papelbon

Prior vs. Beckett

 

I still have to think about Prior or Lilly though.

Edited February 27, 2007 by Danny82

[Ding Dong Johnson]

As it stands now, and unless I see a reason to proceed differently, I'm going with:

 

Z vs. Matsuzaka

Hill vs. Papelbon

Prior vs. Beckett

 

Atta boy, balls up!

[wolf stansson]

As it stands now, and unless I see a reason to proceed differently, I'm going with:

 

Z vs. Matsuzaka

Hill vs. Papelbon

Prior vs. Beckett

 

I still have to think about Prior or Lilly though.

I like that matchup.

 

Matsuzaka is a wildcard who could be their number ace and Z likely bests him no matter what he does. Hill and Papelbon are in the same boat as far as potential and Prior and Beckett both have similar question with Prior's ceiling being higher and Beckett's likelyhood to reach his ceiling being better.

[Danny82]

Man, I love that pic of yours of the girl w/ the stein.

 

Germany?

[wolf stansson]

Man, I love that pic of yours of the girl w/ the stein.

 

Germany?

Yep. Oktoberfest, Munchen.

[TruffleShuffle]

Wow, no Schilling? I'd have taken him over both Papelbon and Beckett.