The Bears Offseason Thread

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Grossman's started, what, about 30 games and has played one full season. This is about when the light goes on for most young QBs and they either take off or show no improvement. Young QBs are inconsistant.

 

Yeah, the Bears are a win-now mode but nothing out there as of now (sans Carr and McNabb) really is that much better, and those two are unlikely to be available.

 

Jeff Garcia is 37-years old. 37!

[Magnetic Curses]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

[CubColtPacer]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

[Magnetic Curses]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

 

i think the bears should cut rex for not having the best offensive player in the game lining up behind him.

[CubColtPacer]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

 

i think the bears should cut rex for not having the best offensive player in the game lining up behind him.

 

Tomlinson's both a great thing and a bad thing for Rivers-he gets plenty of yardage for him, but he also took a lot of the easy TD's away from Rivers-many more than the Bears RB's did.

[Banedon]

Completely meaningless fact:

 

The last team to beat the Colts? The Texans, 27-24...led by David Carr.

 

:P

[CubColtPacer]

Completely meaningless fact:

 

The last team to beat the Colts? The Texans, 27-24...led by David Carr.

 

:P

 

Yup-although I believe that Carr sat back and let Ron Dayne do the work for him that day:D. That was definitely the low point of the season for Colts fans-many fans even started calling for Dungy's head at that point.

[Soriano12]

He's tossing TDs at Bulger's rate, and he isn't in a passing offense as Bulger is/was.

 

Grossman's doing fine.

[CubColtPacer]

He's tossing TDs at Bulger's rate, and he isn't in a passing offense as Bulger is/was.

 

Grossman's doing fine.

 

If that were all a QB had to do, that would be great. What is most troubling to me about Grossman's progression though are his splits. Since week 5, including the playoffs, Grossman has thrown 13 TDs, tossed 20 INTS, and lost 7 fumbles. 27 TO's in 14 games with a 51% completion percentage-he has to figure out a way to halve that number of TO's and greatly raise his completion percentage, and he doesn't have much time to do it left entering his 5th year. He certainly might develop, but NFL history doesn't give him that much chance-I hope for all of your sakes that Grossman is an exception to the rule.

[cubweiser03]

Ask the Commish has rough numbers for 2007 salary cap as of Jan. 2007. This is a good guideline where the Bears are at relative to the other teams in the league. I think they are in fine shape considering all the talent on this team.

 

1 San Francisco 49ers $42.1 M

2 Buffalo Bills $39.7 M

3 Arizona Cardinals $36.7 M

4 Tennessee Titans $36 M

5 Cleveland Browns $33.305 M

6 St. Louis Rams $31.98 M

7 Minnesota Vikings $31.5 M

8 Jacksonville Jaguars $31 M

9 Cincinnati Bengals $28.8 M

10 NY Jets $28.455 M

11 Green Bay Packers $28.36 M

12 New England Patriots $26.98 M

13 Chicago Bears $26.9 M

14 New Orleans Saints $26 M

15 San Diego Chargers $24.6 M

16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers $23.985 M

17 Detroit Lions $23.8 M

18 Seattle Seahawks $21.9 M

19 Dallas Cowboys $21.5 M

20 Houston Texans $19.8 M

21 Miami Dolphins $17.8 M

22 NY Giants $15.7 M

23 Oakland Raiders $14.105 M

24 Philadelphia Eagles $12.4 M

25 Atlanta Falcons $11.5 M

26 Denver Broncos $7.6 M

27 Kansas City Chiefs $7 M

28 Baltimore Ravens $5.7 M

29 Indianapolis Colts $4.9 M

30 Pittsburgh Steelers $1.44 M

31 Carolina Panthers $-3.1

32 Washington Redskins $-2.388 M

[Magnetic Curses]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

 

i think the bears should cut rex for not having the best offensive player in the game lining up behind him.

 

Tomlinson's both a great thing and a bad thing for Rivers-he gets plenty of yardage for him, but he also took a lot of the easy TD's away from Rivers-many more than the Bears RB's did.

 

now you're just reaching.

[Soriano12]

He's tossing TDs at Bulger's rate, and he isn't in a passing offense as Bulger is/was.

 

Grossman's doing fine.

 

If that were all a QB had to do, that would be great. What is most troubling to me about Grossman's progression though are his splits. Since week 5, including the playoffs, Grossman has thrown 13 TDs, tossed 20 INTS, and lost 7 fumbles. 27 TO's in 14 games with a 51% completion percentage-he has to figure out a way to halve that number of TO's and greatly raise his completion percentage, and he doesn't have much time to do it left entering his 5th year. He certainly might develop, but NFL history doesn't give him that much chance-I hope for all of your sakes that Grossman is an exception to the rule.

 

^^^ This is getting annoying.

[CubColtPacer]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

 

i think the bears should cut rex for not having the best offensive player in the game lining up behind him.

 

Tomlinson's both a great thing and a bad thing for Rivers-he gets plenty of yardage for him, but he also took a lot of the easy TD's away from Rivers-many more than the Bears RB's did.

 

now you're just reaching.

 

I don't have to reach-Rivers had much better numbers. You were reaching that it was because of Tomlinson that he did have it when I pointed out there were both positives and negatives to that.

 

Grossman had a hot start to the season-the opponents mostly adjusted to take away the bomb, and Grossman simply has not proven that he can keep from turning the ball over conistently against a defense that is preventing the bomb. He has had a few good games since then with many bad. As I said, since week 5 he has had 13 TDs and turned the ball over 27 times. Can he develop into throwing the short pass consistantly ? I hope so, but history says that I should be skeptical of that.

[Magnetic Curses]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

 

i think the bears should cut rex for not having the best offensive player in the game lining up behind him.

 

Tomlinson's both a great thing and a bad thing for Rivers-he gets plenty of yardage for him, but he also took a lot of the easy TD's away from Rivers-many more than the Bears RB's did.

 

now you're just reaching.

 

I don't have to reach-Rivers had much better numbers. You were reaching that it was because of Tomlinson that he did have it when I pointed out there were both positives and negatives to that.

 

Grossman had a hot start to the season-the opponents mostly adjusted to take away the bomb, and Grossman simply has not proven that he can keep from turning the ball over conistently against a defense that is preventing the bomb. He has had a few good games since then with many bad. As I said, since week 5 he has had 13 TDs and turned the ball over 27 times. Can he develop into throwing the short pass consistantly ? I hope so, but history says that I should be skeptical of that.

 

nobody is arguing that rex had a great year. but arguing that he cannot develop is the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

maybe i just don't understand the parallels you are making, other than pointing out that he appears similar to many other young QB's at his stage of development what are you trying to say, either apparentky or inadvertantly?

 

how does history say that you should "be skeptical of that"?

[CubColtPacer]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

 

i think the bears should cut rex for not having the best offensive player in the game lining up behind him.

 

Tomlinson's both a great thing and a bad thing for Rivers-he gets plenty of yardage for him, but he also took a lot of the easy TD's away from Rivers-many more than the Bears RB's did.

 

now you're just reaching.

 

I don't have to reach-Rivers had much better numbers. You were reaching that it was because of Tomlinson that he did have it when I pointed out there were both positives and negatives to that.

 

Grossman had a hot start to the season-the opponents mostly adjusted to take away the bomb, and Grossman simply has not proven that he can keep from turning the ball over conistently against a defense that is preventing the bomb. He has had a few good games since then with many bad. As I said, since week 5 he has had 13 TDs and turned the ball over 27 times. Can he develop into throwing the short pass consistantly ? I hope so, but history says that I should be skeptical of that.

 

nobody is arguing that rex had a great year. but arguing that he cannot develop is the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

maybe i just don't understand the parallels you are making, other than pointing out that he appears similar to many other young QB's at his stage of development what are you trying to say, either apparentky or inadvertantly?

 

how does history say that you should "be skeptical of that"?

 

All I'm saying is that it is very rare for a QB to develop into a good QB in year 5 or later. By the end of 4 years, if that QB has played all 4 years or sat on the bench for 1, 2, or 3 of those years-at the end of the 4th year it is known if the QB will develop or not. Maybe with Rex's injury history that will give him to the end of year 5-maybe. It's also possible that some QB's are simply given up on too soon. It's just true that it's not likely that a QB will suddenly break through so late into their career (yes, just 4 years in that sounds strange, but it's true), no matter how many years experience they have actually playing. It's happened to a few, but for most it doesn't.

[Chocolate Milk]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

 

i think the bears should cut rex for not having the best offensive player in the game lining up behind him.

 

Tomlinson's both a great thing and a bad thing for Rivers-he gets plenty of yardage for him, but he also took a lot of the easy TD's away from Rivers-many more than the Bears RB's did.

 

now you're just reaching.

 

I don't have to reach-Rivers had much better numbers. You were reaching that it was because of Tomlinson that he did have it when I pointed out there were both positives and negatives to that.

 

Grossman had a hot start to the season-the opponents mostly adjusted to take away the bomb, and Grossman simply has not proven that he can keep from turning the ball over conistently against a defense that is preventing the bomb. He has had a few good games since then with many bad. As I said, since week 5 he has had 13 TDs and turned the ball over 27 times. Can he develop into throwing the short pass consistantly ? I hope so, but history says that I should be skeptical of that.

 

This is an oversimplification. Grossman isn't a bomb only quarterback. He has not had trouble with teams that "take away the bomb." He has had a number of games where he has hit there intermediate routes efficiently. The Giants game comes to mind, specifically, as does the Rams game and Bucs game. While not his strong suit, I think it is incorrect to say that he isn't capable of hitting the intermediate throw.

 

Grossman has had trouble with teams that have good passing defenses, not teams that "shut down the bomb". That much is abundantly clear. He generally shreads teams that have suspect passing defenses. I'm not really sure what to make of that, other than he has the ability to take advantage of overmatched defenses.

 

I'm not really sure what you think "history" is telling you. Plenty of QB's have had similar or worse first season's than Grossman and have devloped into very good quarterbacks. Also, I don't think anyone is expecting Grossman to develop into an MVP QB. Most are expecting him to build on this year. Even with his inconsistancies this year, the Bears went to the superbowl. If Grossman makes any sort of progress (and I think it more likely for him to get better than get worse), the Bears will be in good shape.

[Chocolate Milk]

 

Completion percentage is a huge stat because completions move the chains, something the Bears had trouble doing this year even with a good running game (22nd in the NFL).

 

Y/A is another key stat-in fact, Football Outsiders (who breaks the stats down better than anyone) has it as the most important stat for QB's, and Rex is definitely behind most of those QB's.

 

he's on par with those QB's, all of whom except losman have played in a pro-bowl or will do so soon. that's what your stats show.

 

Also, you have to remember that Grossman got put into the best situation of any of those QB's-the Chicago defense gave him a short field to throw TD's on a routine basis. With that said, his numbers should be better then those QB's-and they are worse to any QB on that list. Pick out a QB, and tell me how Grossman had a better season than them-the only one you could even come close is Garcia.

 

or mcnair? (whom i don't see how he's not anywhere close to) but i won't do anything of the sort until you address the point that grossman couldn't rely on 1 or 2 receivers and had to spread the ball around. i'd bet that his top 2 recievers had a lesser percentage of his total yardage than any of those other QBs.

 

that's not exactly the "best situation".

 

Well, first for McNair, one has to put the almost 700 yards rushing and 8 TD's into the equation-that changes it significantly, which is why I give McNair the edge there.

 

Several other of these QB's had to spread the ball around as well-I'll use the Chargers for example-they spread the ball around about as much as the Bears did this year.

 

Top 2 receivers statistically for the Bears: 51.3% of Grossman's yards

Top 2 for the Chargers: 46.7% of Rivers yards

 

That's the first one I looked up, so there definitely could be more.

 

i think the bears should cut rex for not having the best offensive player in the game lining up behind him.

 

Tomlinson's both a great thing and a bad thing for Rivers-he gets plenty of yardage for him, but he also took a lot of the easy TD's away from Rivers-many more than the Bears RB's did.

 

now you're just reaching.

 

I don't have to reach-Rivers had much better numbers. You were reaching that it was because of Tomlinson that he did have it when I pointed out there were both positives and negatives to that.

 

Grossman had a hot start to the season-the opponents mostly adjusted to take away the bomb, and Grossman simply has not proven that he can keep from turning the ball over conistently against a defense that is preventing the bomb. He has had a few good games since then with many bad. As I said, since week 5 he has had 13 TDs and turned the ball over 27 times. Can he develop into throwing the short pass consistantly ? I hope so, but history says that I should be skeptical of that.

 

nobody is arguing that rex had a great year. but arguing that he cannot develop is the dumbest thing i've ever heard.

 

maybe i just don't understand the parallels you are making, other than pointing out that he appears similar to many other young QB's at his stage of development what are you trying to say, either apparentky or inadvertantly?

 

how does history say that you should "be skeptical of that"?

 

All I'm saying is that it is very rare for a QB to develop into a good QB in year 5 or later. By the end of 4 years, if that QB has played all 4 years or sat on the bench for 1, 2, or 3 of those years-at the end of the 4th year it is known if the QB will develop or not. Maybe with Rex's injury history that will give him to the end of year 5-maybe. It's also possible that some QB's are simply given up on too soon. It's just true that it's not likely that a QB will suddenly break through so late into their career (yes, just 4 years in that sounds strange, but it's true), no matter how many years experience they have actually playing. It's happened to a few, but for most it doesn't.

 

I doubt there is anywhere near a signifigant sample size for you to draw this conclusion. Especially considering that Rex doesn't really fit the criteria your using. Of course QB's that haven't developed by year 4 are unlikely to do so in most cases. How many of those QB's spent almost 2 enitre years rehabing from major injuries and not playing? I'm not really sure how you can draw any conclusions from that data set.

[Magnetic Curses]

 

All I'm saying is that it is very rare for a QB to develop into a good QB in year 5 or later. By the end of 4 years, if that QB has played all 4 years or sat on the bench for 1, 2, or 3 of those years-at the end of the 4th year it is known if the QB will develop or not. Maybe with Rex's injury history that will give him to the end of year 5-maybe. It's also possible that some QB's are simply given up on too soon. It's just true that it's not likely that a QB will suddenly break through so late into their career (yes, just 4 years in that sounds strange, but it's true), no matter how many years experience they have actually playing. It's happened to a few, but for most it doesn't.

 

your strange and pointless micro-analysis does little to shed light on the issue, here.

[Chocolate Milk]

 

All I'm saying is that it is very rare for a QB to develop into a good QB in year 5 or later. By the end of 4 years, if that QB has played all 4 years or sat on the bench for 1, 2, or 3 of those years-at the end of the 4th year it is known if the QB will develop or not. Maybe with Rex's injury history that will give him to the end of year 5-maybe. It's also possible that some QB's are simply given up on too soon. It's just true that it's not likely that a QB will suddenly break through so late into their career (yes, just 4 years in that sounds strange, but it's true), no matter how many years experience they have actually playing. It's happened to a few, but for most it doesn't.

 

your strange and pointless micro-analysis does little to shed light on the issue, here.

 

I think the reason that most QB's don't have a performace jump in their 5th year is clear and it doesn't apply to Grossman. By the 4th year, most QB's have played enough games to see what they have to offer and most development will probably have occured by then. Not the case with Grossman.

[Chocolate Milk]

I'd even venture to say that the games he played in his first two years have almost no value. Played under a different system, with a largely different team, and before two season ending leg injuries.

[UK1679666180]

Grossman is pretty much on par with most QBs that have had under 25 starts.

[CubColtPacer]

 

All I'm saying is that it is very rare for a QB to develop into a good QB in year 5 or later. By the end of 4 years, if that QB has played all 4 years or sat on the bench for 1, 2, or 3 of those years-at the end of the 4th year it is known if the QB will develop or not. Maybe with Rex's injury history that will give him to the end of year 5-maybe. It's also possible that some QB's are simply given up on too soon. It's just true that it's not likely that a QB will suddenly break through so late into their career (yes, just 4 years in that sounds strange, but it's true), no matter how many years experience they have actually playing. It's happened to a few, but for most it doesn't.

 

your strange and pointless micro-analysis does little to shed light on the issue, here.

 

I think the reason that most QB's don't have a performace jump in their 5th year is clear and it doesn't apply to Grossman. By the 4th year, most QB's have played enough games to see what they have to offer and most development will probably have occured by then. Not the case with Grossman.

 

That's why I tried to show a page ago about QB's who came in during their 3rd season or so for the first time. Those QB's had more success then either Grossman or a QB who starts from his rookie year. All I'm saying is that Grossman is behind the curve. He doesn't have the same amount of success that normally a player who is just starting for the first time in his 3rd or 4th season usually does. That certainly could be because of his injuries though.

 

As I said also, one of the reasons that I'm skeptical of Grossman's development is completion percentage. Here are the QB's with under 57 percent completion percentage since 2002:

 

2002: Blake, Vick, Brooks, Plummer, Carr, Matthews, Ramsey, Hutchinson, Harrington

2003: Collins, Blake, Carr, Johnson, Harrington, Gannon, Ramsey, Boller, Stewart

2004: Bledsoe, Vick, Collins, Harrington, Boller, Dorsey, Feeley, Brunell

2005: Bollinger, Brooks, Collins, Eli Manning, Ferotte, Orton, Losman

2006: Leinhart, Hasselbeck, Favre, Plummer, Grossman, Gradkowski, Walter, Vick, Young

 

There are some good names on this list that were good prospects. In 2002, Brooks was in his 3rd year and having a good year except for a bad completion percentage. Carr, Ramsey, and Harrington were in their rookie years.

2003-the 3 rookies appear again, and Boller is a rookie.

2004-Feeley is being developed in this year, along with Harrington, Boller, and Vick

2005-Eli appears, along with Losman, who only threw 228 passes that year.

2006-Leinhart and Grossman appear in their first year starting.

 

There's one big thing on this list-nobody who started out with such a bad completion percentage is developing, with the possible exception of Losman (who was only in for a few games the year he made the list).

Brooks, Carr, Ramsey, Harrington, Boller, Feeley, Eli, Vick-all supposed to be great QB's, none could improve their completion percentages. It's not easy to do, which is why you see very few here who appear on this list and then develop. That's the other big reason why Grossman is in trouble unless he can break the mold.

[UK1679666180]

That would be great if the Bears did run a different style of offense than most teams, many teams use the short passing game as their run, the Bears have one of the highest, if not the highest yards per completion in the NFL b/c they don't use a short passing attack. With that style, you're going to have plenty of incompletions. It's similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers of the 70s without as much talent.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BradTe00.htm

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Grossman is pretty much on par with most QBs that have had under 25 starts.

 

Exactly.

 

CubColtPacer, the point you're ignoring in saying that most QBs don't make a jump in their 5th season is that Rex hasn't been on the field as much as any of these QBs. If you look at starts or games played, Rex is exactly where he should be and has a great chance of progressing and developing further.

[CubColtPacer]

That would be great if the Bears did run a different style of offense than most teams, many teams use the short passing game as their run, the Bears have one of the highest, if not the highest yards per completion in the NFL b/c they don't use a short passing attack. With that style, you're going to have plenty of incompletions. It's similar to the Pittsburgh Steelers of the 70s without as much talent.

 

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/BradTe00.htm

 

That's a very good point-I'm off to look for that stat now to see what it holds.