829 runs!

[jjgman21]

last year a few of you may have seen a tool for calculating the optimum lineup. Nilo also mentioned it in the Soriano thread. the tool is here

 

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/LineupAnalysis.py?

 

to calibrate, I plugged in the Cubs numbers last year for each spot in the batting order, and it was within 12 runs, or .07 runs per game.

 

I figure this will be Lou's usual lineup as the roster now stands

 

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Aram

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

9 hole

 

I plugged the three year averages into the above tool (Murton's ML career averages, same as last year for 9 hole) and it comes to 5.116 runs per game, or 828.792 runs over 162 games. last year that would put the Cubs between the Mets and the Tigers for 8th in baseball.

 

thinking out of the box, the true purpose of this calculator is to determine which is the optimum lineup. that would result in 5.389 runs per game and 873 runs over 162 games. (Murton, Lee, DeRosa, Aram, Barrett, Soriano, Jones, 9 hole, Izturis). that's second only to the Yankees last year, just ahead of Cleveland.

 

I would be interested in seeing someone plug projected stats instead of just three year averages. the team consists of alot of players that can reasonably be expected to finish better than their three year averages (although there is alway a disaster lurking with this team).

Edited November 22, 2006 by jjgman21

[Soriano12]

Soriano

DeRosa

Lee

Aram

Jones

Barrett

Murton

Izturis

9 hole

I assumed that was most likely lineup after they signed soriono

[muntjack]

Interesting. I've always wondered if a lineup constructed like:

 

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

Pitcher

 

would be optimum.

[jjgman21]

906 runs in a 162 game season when using each players last healthy season's stats (Lee 05, Izturis 04, last year for everyone else, plus last years 9 hole stats).

[jjgman21]

Interesting. I've always wondered if a lineup constructed like:

 

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

Pitcher

 

would be optimum.

 

that calculator pretty much says that is the case as you can see by the lineup it projects as best.

[UMFan83]

Interesting. I've always wondered if a lineup constructed like:

 

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

Pitcher

 

would be optimum.

 

As opposed to Hendry's favorite model

 

Speed

Catches ball

Power

Power

Power

Scrappy

Can play the game right way

Catcher until he has proven himself for 2 years

Pitcher

[Jazz]

Interesting. I've always wondered if a lineup constructed like:

 

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

OBP

Power

Pitcher

 

would be optimum.

 

As opposed to Baker's favorite model

 

Speed

Catches ball

Power

Power

Power

Scrappy

Can play the game right way

Catcher until he has proven himself for 2 years

Pitcher

[Mephistopheles]

theres one HUGE problem with your model, it assumes that every player plays 162 games.

[jjgman21]

theres one HUGE problem with your model, it assumes that every player plays 162 games.

 

I understand that, but it also probably uses stats under 2007 projections for every single player listed. it uses three year averages, and just about every player on the team probably projects above their three year averages.

 

hopefully Lou will find a way to mitigate lowered production on off days by picking good match ups for the fill ins to succeed.

 

edit - in addition, for shortstop at least, off days will create in increase in production (assumes Theriot). you can also pencil in Lee and Soriano for 160, and Jones and Murton for about 155 if not platooned. the biggest draw down would of course be at catcher. little things like Bynum and Neifi no longer being the first and second bench options will help the nine hole.

 

it's imperfect, but gives an idea of what to possibly expect.

[Master Shake]

 

As opposed to Hendry's favorite model

 

Speed

Catches ball

Power

Power

Power

Scrappy

Can play the game right way

Catcher until he has proven himself for 2 years

Pitcher

 

I thought it was more

 

Pick off

Strike out

Injured power hitter

Fly out

Fly out

Strike out

Strike out

Fly out

Zambrano

[Abe Frohman]

RF Soriano

LF Murton

1B Lee

3B Ramirez

2B DeRosa

CF Jones

CA Barrett

SS Izturis

Pitcher

[cubweiser03]

theres one HUGE problem with your model, it assumes that every player plays 162 games.

 

Before the season starts this year we're turning the injuries off.

[Drew Doughty]

theres one HUGE problem with your model, it assumes that every player plays 162 games.

 

Before the season starts this year we're turning the injuries off.

 

what about suspensions for punching opposing catchers?

[goonys evil twin]

theres one HUGE problem with your model, it assumes that every player plays 162 games.

 

Before the season starts this year we're turning the injuries off.

 

what about suspensions for punching opposing catchers?

 

We're going to hit reset during that game.

[Mephistopheles]

theres one HUGE problem with your model, it assumes that every player plays 162 games.

 

Before the season starts this year we're turning the injuries off.

 

 

except even when players are healthy they don't get every at bat. They will play 90% of the time, give or take. There's also an issue at the top of the lineup with Soriano and his stolen base out problem. Really using an estimate like this to project over 162 games is worthless unless you adjust for playing time.

[Drew Doughty]

theres one HUGE problem with your model, it assumes that every player plays 162 games.

 

Before the season starts this year we're turning the injuries off.

 

what about suspensions for punching opposing catchers?

 

We're going to hit reset during that game.

 

Looks like we've got all of the bases covered then.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

theres one HUGE problem with your model, it assumes that every player plays 162 games.

 

Before the season starts this year we're turning the injuries off.

 

what about suspensions for punching opposing catchers?

 

We're going to hit reset during that game.

 

Looks like we've got all of the bases covered then.

 

Just make sure to play at the rookie difficulty level.

[jjgman21]

I ran the Zips projections in the calculator. I didn't account for various missed time because, well quite frankly my brain isn't capable of handling all the variables right now. I again used the obp and slg from the Cubs 9 hole hitters last year.

 

809 runs. that would rank 6 in NL runs scored.

 

 

just a quick note about Zips, I think they treat a few Cubs rather unfairly. I think Soriano, Murton and DeRosa will all perform better than they predict in their projections. for Soriano and DeRosa it seems they don't account whatsoever for adjustments both appear to have made and regress them too much, for Murton in predicts zero improvement over last years stats despite his second half last year. I also think they fall a little short on Jones, but I could easily see him regressing to the numbers they predict for him.

 

anyone have PECOTA? any suggestions on how to account for missed time by the various players (+ - x / only please for my only-got-as-far-as-college-trig brain)?