ESPN top 40 FA's

[Radar3454]

Keith Law posted his top 40 FA's for espn but it is an insider article so I will only post 10 that the Cubs might have interest in and a couple others that I think are interesting. Mods feel free to delete if needed. He doesn't predict contracts or where they will sign but he has a scouting report for each of them.

 

1. Aram

2. Matsuzaka

3. Soriano

4. Schmidt

7. C. Lee

8. J.D. Drew

12. T. Lilly

13. G. Meche

15. B. Zito

19. D. Roberts

23. N. Garciaparra

31. Kei Igawa (japanese LHP)

33. V. Padilla - 34. R. Aurilia

35. G. Matthews Jr.

40. J. Pierre

 

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/columns/story?columnist=law_keith&id=2655094

[JeffH]

It would be just like the ridiculous Cubs to waste $5+ on Igawa.

[TruffleShuffle]

It would be just like the ridiculous Cubs to waste $5+ on Igawa.

 

why would $5M per year be a waste?

[wade]

Ted Lilly and Gil Meche are better than Barry Zito?

[JeffH]

It would be just like the ridiculous Cubs to waste $5+ on Igawa.

 

why would $5M per year be a waste?

 

The evidence at hand suggests that he's going to be a dreadful MLB pitcher.

 

Put that money toward a decent, reliable guy like Batista.

[Radar3454]

He knows Zito will get big $$ but he thinks he is very overrated.

 

This is his report

Zito has long been considered the prize starter on the 2006-07 free agent market; he's one of only two available Cy Young Award winners (with Greg Maddux), he's left-handed, and he's put up great numbers while throwing most of his innings in pitchers' parks with great outfield defenses behind him.

 

Zito needs to pitch somewhat backwards to be successful. His fastball is below-average, usually around 84-86 mph and occasionally touching 88, with a little run but no sink. He has two plus secondary pitches: a changeup with good fade and tail, a pitch on which he maintains his arm speed extremely well, and his famous curveball, with a huge, two-plane break, a pitch he can throw for strikes when he needs to or throw down and away against left-handed batters to finish them off. What Zito brings to the table is durability; he's never had a major injury and has topped 210 innings in every full season he's spent in the big leagues. That sort of predictability is valuable, especially in a market full of guys with serious injuries in their recent histories.

 

Zito is a third or fourth starter with the reputation of a one or a two. In fact, over the last three years, he's struggled badly when facing the two premier offenses in the AL, posting a 6.59 ERA against Boston and the Yankees while walking 47 men and allowing 18 homers in 83.3 innings. His control is below-average; only Daniel Cabrera has walked more batters in the last two years than Zito has. And should Zito's stuff slip at all, he becomes a fifth starter or a guy who needs to head to the National League, the current destination for asylum-seekers who fear AL persecution of their fringy fastballs.

[Outshined_One]

The evidence at hand suggests that he's going to be a dreadful MLB pitcher.

 

Put that money toward a decent, reliable guy like Batista.

 

http://img137.imageshack.us/img137/2548/scannersne4.gif

[b_wiggy_66]

He wrote a very funny bit on Pierre:

 

"One of the most overrated players of the 2000s, Pierre has precisely one above-average baseball ability: He can run. He has no power, has poor fielding instincts, has a below-average arm, and is not patient at the plate. While he has a .303 career batting average, his actual hitting ability is average at best. He has an erratic swing path, one that often puts him under balls he should be centering and trying to hit on the ground or as line drives. In center, he makes up for those poor instincts with his raw speed, but is no more than an average fielder; when his speed begins to decline, his bat won't support a move to left field. He's a No. 8 or 9 hitter who has been miscast as a leadoff hitter because he can fly, but he'll likely be paid to lead off by a club that values speed over the ability to get on base."

 

Sounds like I've heard those words before :lol:

[TruffleShuffle]

It would be just like the ridiculous Cubs to waste $5+ on Igawa.

 

why would $5M per year be a waste?

 

The evidence at hand suggests that he's going to be a dreadful MLB pitcher.

 

Put that money toward a decent, reliable guy like Batista.

 

which "evidence at hand" would that be?

[JeffH]

It would be just like the ridiculous Cubs to waste $5+ on Igawa.

 

why would $5M per year be a waste?

 

The evidence at hand suggests that he's going to be a dreadful MLB pitcher.

 

Put that money toward a decent, reliable guy like Batista.

 

which "evidence at hand" would that be?

 

His fastball in the 84-86 mph range.

 

Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer are very, very rare pitchers.

[TruffleShuffle]

It would be just like the ridiculous Cubs to waste $5+ on Igawa.

 

why would $5M per year be a waste?

 

The evidence at hand suggests that he's going to be a dreadful MLB pitcher.

 

Put that money toward a decent, reliable guy like Batista.

 

which "evidence at hand" would that be?

 

His fastball in the 84-86 mph range.

 

Greg Maddux and Jamie Moyer are very, very rare pitchers.

 

so basically because he doesn't throw hard, he's guaranteed to be a failure? gosh, somebody should have let him know about this before he had six good years in japan.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if he is terrible though, Batista? Miguel Batista?

[JeffH]

I'm assuming that:

 

- The Cubs have lost on Matsuzaka.

- The Cubs have essentially zero chance of signing Zito or Schmidt.

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

[TruffleShuffle]

Even if he is terrible though, Batista? Miguel Batista?

 

ERA+...

 

2001: 136

2002: 103

2003: 132

2004: 101

2005: 109

2006: 104

[TruffleShuffle]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

 

You guys need to get over ERA+. He had a WHIP over 1.5 the two years he was a starter, a K/BB near 1 both years he was a starter, an OBP against over .350 both those years, and an OPS against around .780. He's 36 years old and it's likely going to get worse, he's a terrible option for the rotation.

[TruffleShuffle]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

 

You guys need to get over ERA+. He had a WHIP over 1.5 the two years he was a starter, a K/BB near 1 both years he was a starter, an OBP against over .350 both those years, and an OPS against around .780. He's 36 years old and it's likely going to get worse, he's a terrible option for the rotation.

 

Still, your argument that he's terrible has no validity.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

 

You guys need to get over ERA+. He had a WHIP over 1.5 the two years he was a starter, a K/BB near 1 both years he was a starter, an OBP against over .350 both those years, and an OPS against around .780. He's 36 years old and it's likely going to get worse, he's a terrible option for the rotation.

 

Still, your argument that he's terrible has no validity.

 

Yes, yes it does. A 1.5 WHIP is terrible, striking out as many guys as you walk is terrible, giving up baserunners at a .350 clip is terrible.

[TruffleShuffle]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

 

You guys need to get over ERA+. He had a WHIP over 1.5 the two years he was a starter, a K/BB near 1 both years he was a starter, an OBP against over .350 both those years, and an OPS against around .780. He's 36 years old and it's likely going to get worse, he's a terrible option for the rotation.

 

Still, your argument that he's terrible has no validity.

 

Yes, yes it does. A 1.5 WHIP is terrible, striking out as many guys as you walk is terrible, giving up baserunners at a .350 clip is terrible.

 

I agree, but unfortunately for your cause, Miguel Batista didn't do that.

 

Glendon Rusch was terrible. Oliver Perez was terrible. Miguel Batista has been, at worst, a little below average the past three years.

[b_wiggy_66]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

 

You guys need to get over ERA+. He had a WHIP over 1.5 the two years he was a starter, a K/BB near 1 both years he was a starter, an OBP against over .350 both those years, and an OPS against around .780. He's 36 years old and it's likely going to get worse, he's a terrible option for the rotation.

 

Get over ERA? That is the stat that defines pitchers. ERA is a very good jusdge of how good a guy is. If they give up runs, which help the other team, ERA will show just how many runs a guy gave up. Runs are the name of the game and ERA shows just how good or bad someone is at not giving them up.

[wade]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

 

You guys need to get over ERA+. He had a WHIP over 1.5 the two years he was a starter, a K/BB near 1 both years he was a starter, an OBP against over .350 both those years, and an OPS against around .780. He's 36 years old and it's likely going to get worse, he's a terrible option for the rotation.

 

Get over ERA? That is the stat that defines pitchers. ERA is a very good jusdge of how good a guy is. If they give up runs, which help the other team, ERA will show just how many runs a guy gave up. Runs are the name of the game and ERA shows just how good or bad someone is at not giving them up.

 

They're talking about ERA+, not just ERA. It's defined at hardball times as -

 

ERA measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An ERA+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average.

 

I think TT's saying league average with that one stat doesn't offset below average at others.

[b_wiggy_66]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

 

You guys need to get over ERA+. He had a WHIP over 1.5 the two years he was a starter, a K/BB near 1 both years he was a starter, an OBP against over .350 both those years, and an OPS against around .780. He's 36 years old and it's likely going to get worse, he's a terrible option for the rotation.

 

Get over ERA? That is the stat that defines pitchers. ERA is a very good jusdge of how good a guy is. If they give up runs, which help the other team, ERA will show just how many runs a guy gave up. Runs are the name of the game and ERA shows just how good or bad someone is at not giving them up.

 

They're talking about ERA+, not just ERA. It's defined at hardball times as -

 

ERA measured against the league average, and adjusted for ballpark factors. An ERA+ over 100 is better than average, less than 100 is below average.

 

I think TT's saying league average with that one stat doesn't offset below average at others.

 

I didn't see that they were talking ERA+

[Transmogrified Tiger]

- Batista will be much cheaper than the other second-tier guys.

 

If true, there's a reason for that. Batista is terrible. He's 36 and he hasn't been any good for 3 years.

 

if by not good you mean better than the major league average pitcher, then yes, he hasn't been any good for 3 years

 

You guys need to get over ERA+. He had a WHIP over 1.5 the two years he was a starter, a K/BB near 1 both years he was a starter, an OBP against over .350 both those years, and an OPS against around .780. He's 36 years old and it's likely going to get worse, he's a terrible option for the rotation.

 

Get over ERA? That is the stat that defines pitchers. ERA is a very good jusdge of how good a guy is. If they give up runs, which help the other team, ERA will show just how many runs a guy gave up. Runs are the name of the game and ERA shows just how good or bad someone is at not giving them up.

 

ERA is a result of several factors, pitching ability, defensive ability, pitching ability of other pitchers, and luck. I'm not saying to ignore it, but to use it as the only support for saying that this guy or that guy isn't half bad, is wrong.

[JeffH]

Whether you believe Batista is "terrible", "decent", or "mediocre", paying $15-$20 million for Igawa would be an awful, awful decision.