Cubs Will Target Soriano, Schmidt

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

According to this, Soriano is going to ask for a lot of moola!

 

Several executives said during this postseason that they expect Soriano to ask for at least $18 million per season for a deal that could last five or six seasons, though he could end up signing a deal worth slightly less.

I've been saying to get Soriano for CF for months now, but at 18 million? I'd have to think hard about doing that. It's an extra 3 million more than what I'd like to sign him for, but is it really worth letting him walk and getting a worse CF and other bench players for that 18M?

 

The Cubs need to add another bat. Period. If an extra 3-4 million is going to stop them from signing the best bat on the market, then they're nowhere near as serious about winning at all as they have been saying.

 

The big issue is that it's a dry market. There's really not much there. On top of that, many teams have money to spend. The bad contracts signed in 2000 are now off the books of most teams. Many teams have 30-40 million to spend. With few targets, the bidding will rise because most teams know they won't get but one of these guys anyway.

 

I like the fact that the Cubs seem willing to spend. I fear that it still won't be enough.

 

Or they'll waste too much of it on the mediocre types and notice that most of the money has already been spent and Plan B From Outer Space once again takes over. Hendry has to keep Ramirez and nail 2 impact guys right away.

 

I'm not sure that's possible. A lot of the impact guys will wait it out. Allowing more GM's to grow nervous. While it makes since for teams to want to sign the big names early, it doesn't always make sense for the big names to sign early.

[CuseCubFan69]

According to this, Soriano is going to ask for a lot of moola!

 

Several executives said during this postseason that they expect Soriano to ask for at least $18 million per season for a deal that could last five or six seasons, though he could end up signing a deal worth slightly less.

I've been saying to get Soriano for CF for months now, but at 18 million? I'd have to think hard about doing that. It's an extra 3 million more than what I'd like to sign him for, but is it really worth letting him walk and getting a worse CF and other bench players for that 18M?

 

The Cubs need to add another bat. Period. If an extra 3-4 million is going to stop them from signing the best bat on the market, then they're nowhere near as serious about winning at all as they have been saying.

 

The big issue is that it's a dry market. There's really not much there. On top of that, many teams have money to spend. The bad contracts signed in 2000 are now off the books of most teams. Many teams have 30-40 million to spend. With few targets, the bidding will rise because most teams know they won't get but one of these guys anyway.

 

I like the fact that the Cubs seem willing to spend. I fear that it still won't be enough.

 

Or they'll waste too much of it on the mediocre types and notice that most of the money has already been spent and Plan B From Outer Space once again takes over. Hendry has to keep Ramirez and nail 2 impact guys right away.

 

I'm not sure that's possible. A lot of the impact guys will wait it out. Allowing more GM's to grow nervous. While it makes since for teams to want to sign the big names early, it doesn't always make sense for the big names to sign early.

 

I disagree Vance, I think they'll be the first offered the mega bucks and the money will dwindle down from there.

[TheDude]

Here's the problem with this discussion. The Cubs organization will get criticized for not pulling the trigger on any high-end, top FAs year after year. and yet, when the pricetage actually gets announced, the majority of fans back-peddle, and start the the 'not-at-that-price' line.

 

It can't be both ways. Either you admire the fiscal responsibility of the front office and try to win with all-stars (not quite superstars), kids, and average veterans, or you get on them for never paying the price it takes.

 

Soriano's pricetage will cripple a lot organizations (there's always that stat regarding % of payroll on one talent and lack of WS rings), but I don't see the Cubs as one of them, assuming the reported 10-15 increase is real.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Here's the problem with this discussion. The Cubs organization will get criticized for not pulling the trigger on any high-end, top FAs year after year. and yet, when the pricetage actually gets announced, the majority of fans back-peddle, and start the the 'not-at-that-price' line.

 

It can't be both ways. Either you admire the fiscal responsibility of the front office and try to win with all-stars (not quite superstars), kids, and average veterans, or you get on them for never paying the price it takes.

 

Soriano's pricetage will cripple a lot organizations (there's always that stat regarding % of payroll on one talent and lack of WS rings), but I don't see the Cubs as one of them, assuming the reported 10-15 increase is real.

 

Admittedly, in previous offseasons I was all about not overpaying for FA's. However, I've changed my thinking a bit to the point where if a player is really good and he's got age on his side(pre-prime, entering prime), then he's worth overpaying for. To me, Soriano isn't that player, and there probably isn't a player like that on this FA market. There is no Beltran, no Vlad, all the top FA's are pushing 30 years old or more.

[TheDude]

Admittedly, in previous offseasons I was all about not overpaying for FA's. However, I've changed my thinking a bit to the point where if a player is really good and he's got age on his side(pre-prime, entering prime), then he's worth overpaying for. To me, Soriano isn't that player, and there probably isn't a player like that on this FA market. There is no Beltran, no Vlad, all the top FA's are pushing 30 years old or more.

 

I agree with you there. But we must also respect that these are incredibly slim parameters, and only two or three players per generation ever really fit the bill.

 

I think it's very hard to be tough on any GM for not getting the right big ticket guy when they only come along once every few years.

 

If I were a GM, I'd probably still pull the trigger on Soriano because of his athleticism. If you are going to gamble 'on the wrong side of 30', you do it with a guy whose athleticism might carry the age appropriately.

[frostwyrm]

Here's the problem with this discussion. The Cubs organization will get criticized for not pulling the trigger on any high-end, top FAs year after year. and yet, when the pricetage actually gets announced, the majority of fans back-peddle, and start the the 'not-at-that-price' line.

 

It can't be both ways. Either you admire the fiscal responsibility of the front office and try to win with all-stars (not quite superstars), kids, and average veterans, or you get on them for never paying the price it takes.

 

Soriano's pricetage will cripple a lot organizations (there's always that stat regarding % of payroll on one talent and lack of WS rings), but I don't see the Cubs as one of them, assuming the reported 10-15 increase is real.

 

Soriano is coming off a career year, not surprisingly also a contract year. His numbers from 2002-2005 were .275/.329/.519/.848. If he regresses back to that level he'll be a lousy bargain at $18M per year. Bear in mind he'll be 31 next January, so he could easily regress to below his 2002-2005 level. I want Soriano on the team at CF or 2B but not for $18M and a 5 year committment.

[erik316wttn]

According to this, Soriano is going to ask for a lot of moola!

 

Several executives said during this postseason that they expect Soriano to ask for at least $18 million per season for a deal that could last five or six seasons, though he could end up signing a deal worth slightly less.

 

Why, that's Sammy money!!

 

Edited because I can't bleepin read.

Edited October 30, 2006 by erik316wttn

[TheDude]

Here's the problem with this discussion. The Cubs organization will get criticized for not pulling the trigger on any high-end, top FAs year after year. and yet, when the pricetage actually gets announced, the majority of fans back-peddle, and start the the 'not-at-that-price' line.

 

It can't be both ways. Either you admire the fiscal responsibility of the front office and try to win with all-stars (not quite superstars), kids, and average veterans, or you get on them for never paying the price it takes.

 

Soriano's pricetage will cripple a lot organizations (there's always that stat regarding % of payroll on one talent and lack of WS rings), but I don't see the Cubs as one of them, assuming the reported 10-15 increase is real.

 

Soriano is coming off a career year, not surprisingly also a contract year. His numbers from 2002-2005 were .275/.329/.519/.848. If he regresses back to that level he'll be a lousy bargain at $18M per year. Bear in mind he'll be 31 next January, so he could easily regress to below his 2002-2005 level. I want Soriano on the team at CF or 2B but not for $18M and a 5 year committment.

 

His numbers have been discussed many times in previous threads. Being an optomistic person anyway, I tend to view the Cubs reported interest in Soriano, and his splits according to that interest.

 

Soriano was not a good run producer in the 3rd or 5th spot of the lineup at any point in his career, with over 500 ABs at each. His production as a leadoff hitter is stellar and that's where the Cubs reported interest lies.

 

If he puts up numbers equal to (or even slightly less than) his leadoff splits for his career (not just last year), then he will be worth the contract.

 

[edit - leadoff splits career: .291/.340/.544/.884]