Realistic lineup projections -- Can they score enough?

[wastra]

If we sign Soriono I hope Piniella isn't dumb enough to bat him leadoff.

Unless he enjoys flushing RBI's down the toilet.

 

I don't know how many different threads this argument needs to span before it gets read, but this is a poor observation.

 

Please go and study Sorianos career splits and then reconsider your opinion. His best numbers are continually demonstrated at leadoff, with mediocre to poor numbers in the 3 and 5 hole (respective to what you want out of those slots).

 

The big-time flashy numbers that make Soriano attractive occur at leadoff, and it is easily his best lineup split for his career.

 

Sometimes a spade is a spade - Washington figured that out.

 

Where did he bad in 2002 and 2003? Granted his best numbers occured this season but was that due to him batting leadoff, or just improving as a ballplayer?(or sadly a contract season)

 

I simply can't agree with putting that kind of RBI potential at leadoff.

 

 

Didn't BP produce a study that indicated your best hitters should be in the 1, 3 and 4 spots of the lineup? I know for sure that 1 and 3 were two of the spots but can't remember if the 4-spot is the 3rd. Having Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez in those 3 spots is exactly what should happen if that study has merit.

 

I don't know about BP, but Bill James has written and spoken about his studies of lineup construction literally scores of times. Statistically, the best hitters should, according to James, hit 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 in the order. Basically, the more at bats you can secure for your better hitters, the more runs they'll likely create over time.

 

 

It's important to note, I think, that this ignores situational issues. It may create the most runs over a full season, but cannot speak to the liklihood of scoring in any particular situation. hence, there ARE times when a team might want to construct a lineup SLIGHTLY differently, as James himself admits, but by-and-large, best to worst is the best theoretical lineup.

[hardcorecubfan]

I'll take a shot as goofy as my guess will be, almost as good as anyone elses. the big changes will be in the pitching staff.

 

Theriot

Pierre-Yes he will be back

A Rod

Lee

Ramirz

Murton

Barrett

jones

Zambrano

 

 

rotation: Schmidt/Matsusaka, Zambrano, Hill, Prior, Miller/Marshal Miller is signed cheap so they can save money for Schmidt.

 

Marshal and Miller could be held for trade bait if Wade is looking good in ST. It will be Schmidt or or Matsusaka that will be the blockbuster FA deal.