Shocking Player Signing.... (Chris Huseby)

[goonys evil twin]

Compare this with the money thrown at Miller in the hopes that he would regain his ability. Wade had actually shown a lot of greatness at the major league level and is still at an age where he could be helpful. The downside is you really only get 1 year to get something of value (plus whatever goodwill you build up by giving him that contract in that situation). This kid got a little more money, and it's debatable whether he has the same odds of ever being a great major league pitcher. The difference is you get more years to find out with him, but there's much less history to base your opinions on.

 

In general, I'd rather see bets like this, hoping for stars, rather than overpaying mediocrity and especially ineptitude.

[CubsWin]

Compare this with the money thrown at Miller in the hopes that he would regain his ability. Wade had actually shown a lot of greatness at the major league level and is still at an age where he could be helpful. The downside is you really only get 1 year to get something of value (plus whatever goodwill you build up by giving him that contract in that situation). This kid got a little more money, and it's debatable whether he has the same odds of ever being a great major league pitcher. The difference is you get more years to find out with him, but there's much less history to base your opinions on.

 

In general, I'd rather see bets like this, hoping for stars, rather than overpaying mediocrity and especially ineptitude.

I agree. I, too, would rather see bets like this instead of overpaying for mediocrity and ineptitude, though thats not saying much. Who wouldn't?

 

That said, comparing contracts is a tricky proposal. Unfortunately, a player's specific contract isn't always, or even often, determined by his worth as a player, it is determined by the economics of the situation meaning the team's perceived need for a specific kind of player, how much money that team has to spend at the time, the player's willingness to sign with that team, etc. Only one factor determining the dollar amount a player makes is his level of performance.

 

So Huseby's motivation to go to Auburn and not really wanting to sign with a big league club unless he got 1st round money had a lot to do with the money he got. Factor in that Wilken liked what he saw when scouting him this spring, thought he was worth the gamble and had the money to spend and it all adds up. Miller, on the other hand, had completely different market forces leading up to his contract.

 

Thus, comparing the two or justifying one using the other is problematic because they really weren't created on a level playing field. I agree with your conclusion, but the method used to get there is a slippery one.

 

I think you have to take each contract on its own terms to determine whether someone was overpaid or not. In the case of Huseby, there were more than the usual amount of factors at play. The fact that he was drafted in the 11th round had more to do with his recent injury, the fact that he wasn't heavily scouted leading up to the draft due to that injury, his committment to Auburn and his belief that if he were allowed to play college ball that he would eventually wind up a 1st round selection. When you factor in the Cubs situation of not having a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round selection, Wilken scouting him and liking what he saw and the Cubs being a rather wealthy organization to start with, the contract appears to be a gamble worth taking.

[goonys evil twin]

I agree. I, too, would rather see bets like this instead of overpaying for mediocrity and ineptitude, though thats not saying much. Who wouldn't?

 

Jim Hendry and Dusty Baker for starters (and a lot of others). Baseball is littered with people who want to guarantee mediocrity and don't have the balls to risk failure in the pursuit of greatness.