The Top 23 Cubs Prospects 23 & Under

[CubsWin]

Since the present day Cubs leave a lot to be desired, I figured a thread dedicated to the Cubs prospects with the brightest futures would be good right now. I know, potential Cub contributors like Rich Hill and Angel Guzman can't be included on this list, but so what, we've talked a lot about them already. The 21st, 22nd and 23rd names might be a challenge to identify, but that's part of fun.

 

1. Sean Gallagher - AA (20)

 

Commanding a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s at age 20 with a repertoire of breaking pitches that also has the scouts talking, Sean Gallagher has to have the brightest future of any Cubs prospect at the moment.

 

2. Felix Pie - AAA (21)

 

I almost put Felix at #1, but his struggles at AAA are cause for concern. Of course, then I remembered that he is two years too young for his level and that he's got plenty of time. His mix of age, work ethic, attitude, physical skills, past performance and undiscovered ceiling more than qualify him for the #2 slot and possibly have him top this list.

 

3. Ronny Cedeno - ML (23)

 

He might not be considered a prospect anymore, but since he is still just 23, that's a good thing. Through the first 2 1/2 months of his first full major league season, he is hitting right around the .300 mark. His athleticism is eye-popping. His range at SS is remarkable and he has yet to be thrown out stealing in 5 attempts. In 310 career ABs, his line reads .297/.330/.394. He is on pace to strike out 100 times this season, but at age 23, he's got time to improve in that area and add some power.

 

4. Carlos Marmol - ML (23)

 

Even if he was still in West Tenn, his numbers would justify a high ranking on this list, but seeing his stuff first hand and seeing the success he's having at the ML level pushes him even higher, for now. We'll see how he does in today's game...

 

5. Sean Marshall - ML (23)

 

Much like Marmol, Marshall's performance at the ML level, though mixed, has to place him high on a list like this one. He doesn't possess the electric stuff that Marmol has been flashing, but his poise, intelligence, excellent curve and fastball that tops out in the low 90s have him being seen as a fixture in the Cubs rotation for years to come.

 

6. Mark Pawelek - Short Season A (19)

 

Only because of his age is he this high. He has pitched very little since joining the Cubs, but being left-handed, 19 and very talented is a deadly combination. The little we have seen of him has looked good and in the "what have you done for me lately" world of message board prospect rankings, that's good enough.

 

7. Donnie Veal - Low A (21)

 

The Don is beginning to figure out the MWL and should be promoted soon. He's got all the right stats headed in the right direction. He just earned his 5th win last night to go 5-3 on the season through 14 starts averaging just over 5 innings per. He has allowed only 44 hits in 73 2/3 IP while striking out 86. His WHIP is now down to 1.14. He's a power lefty who can make 'em miss. That's pretty rare. And if he gets promoted this season, he'll be ahead of schedule.

 

8. Mark Reed - Low A (20)

 

Mark turned 20 back in April and has been hitting ever since. He has posted a line of .323/.374/.404 while being a year too young for his level. He is proving he can stick at the catcher position which makes him all the more valuable, as does being a left-handed hitter with a bit of pedigree.

 

9. Randy Wells - AA (23)

 

Wells has better numbers than Marmol did at West Tenn so far this season. Heck, he's got better numbers than Mark Prior did at West Tenn back in '02, but he needs to do what he is doing a little longer before I become a believer. Still, 4-2 with a ERA of 1.12 and a WHIP of 0.89 through 11 starts can't be overlooked.

 

10. Mitch Atkins - Low A (20)

 

Mitch won't turn 21 until October, and he is dominating the MWL with a 6-1 record, 2.24 ERA and a WHIP of 1.08.

 

Other names still to be ranked: Eric Patterson - AA (23), Juan Mateo - AA (23), Jake Fox - High A (23), Brian Dopirak - AA (22), Jae Kuk Ryu - AAA (23), Geovany Soto - AAA (23), Scott Taylor - Low A (19), Ryan Harvey - High A (21), Jonathon Mota - Low A (19), Jon Mueller - AAA (22), Scott Moore - AA (22), Dylan Johnston - Low A (19), Robinson Chirinos - Low A (22), Darin Downs - Short Season A (21), Nate Spears - High A (21), Grant Johnson - High A (23), Miguel Negron - AA (23), Billy Petrick - Inj. (22), Todd Blackford - Low A (21).

 

Did I miss anyone? Have at it, Cubs fans...

Edited June 18, 2006 by CubsWin

[NCCubFan]

If Cedeno and Marshall can be included, why can't Hill and Guzman? The only reason for saying they can't be included would be due to the amount of time they've already spent in the majors, which would also rule out Cedeno and Marshall.

 

I think Patterson and Fox would be the first ones I'd include other than the ones you have ranked 1 through 10. Fox especially is really coming on this year (Patterson was already highly regarded after last year). Another intriguing possibility based on the progress he's made this year is Hoffpauir. His batting average is lower since his promotion to Iowa, but he has 5 home runs in 95 at-bats in addition to his earlier explosion at West Tenn. And I think 95 at-bats is a bit too few to make any conclusions about the batting average.

[Mephistopheles]

I still don't see Gallagher being better than a #3 or so starter. Sure he's improved, but he still does not have projection.

[Mephistopheles]

If Cedeno and Marshall can be included, why can't Hill and Guzman? The only reason for saying they can't be included would be due to the amount of time they've already spent in the majors, which would also rule out Cedeno and Marshall.

 

Neither are 23 and under.

[NCCubFan]

If Cedeno and Marshall can be included, why can't Hill and Guzman? The only reason for saying they can't be included would be due to the amount of time they've already spent in the majors, which would also rule out Cedeno and Marshall.

 

Neither are 23 and under.

:oops: Doh, it would help if I actually read the title of the thread and not just the post. :D

[Outshined_One]

I still don't see Gallagher being better than a #3 or so starter. Sure he's improved, but he still does not have projection.

 

I'm somewhat inclined to agree, but if he keeps putting up the numbers he has been as he moves along in the minors, I think there definitely is a bright future ahead of him. Heck, guys like Marshall and Marmol were always projected as possible 2/3 guys.

 

Felix Pie is still top dog in the farm system, imo.

 

As for your list, CubsWin, I'd throw Billy Petrick, Tyler Colvin, and Jeff Samardzija onto it.

[KingKongvs.Godzilla]

Does Gallagher really throw that hard?

 

What kind of stuff do Atkins and Wells have?

[Outshined_One]

Does Gallagher really throw that hard?

 

What kind of stuff do Atkins and Wells have?

 

Gallagher's been sitting comfortably at 90-93 this year and has touched mid-90s on his fastball. Apparently he managed to clock triple digits on one gun during a start in the FSL, but that gun was likely a few notches fast.

 

Atkins has mostly relied on changing speeds and location thus far, but he throws low 90s stuff. I'm not sure about what secondary pitches he throws, though.

 

As for Wells, I'll go directly to the source:

 

I usually sit at 88 to 92, somewhere in that range. I throw a slider and a changeup. My changeup is my second-best pitch. I use it a lot more than the slider. I use the slider in fastball counts along with the changeup, the slider to put away righties and backdoor to lefties. I use my changeup any time and in any count when things are going good.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

In your mentionables, you put Scott Moore at high A, but I thought he was at AA West Tenn.

[Outshined_One]

In your mentionables, you put Scott Moore at high A, but I thought he was at AA West Tenn.

 

He is.

[Rob]

1. Pie

2. Pawelek

3. Cedeno

4. Marshall

5. Marmol

6. Reed

7. Veal

8. Patterson

9. Dopirak

10. Gallagher

 

Pie and Pawelek have to be the top dogs, any way you cut it. They have huge ceilings and decent chances of getting there.

 

Then of course there's the 3 at the ML level right now. All three have a chance to be solid role players, but I don't see any of them becoming stars like Pie or Pawelek could do.

 

Perhaps I'm rating Reed a bit higher than I should, but I just have a thing for catching prospects with decent bats. If he sticks at catcher, his bat will definately play.

 

Veal is another one of those guys with a huge ceiling, but his walk rates scare me.

 

Patterson is just a pimp. He can do everything fairly well, and I could see him putting up a .315 batting average one year that helps make him one of the most valuable players in the league.

 

Dopirak is still a good prospect, but I'm just not convinced he'll ever get close to his potential.

 

Gallagher I love, but I'm afraid I don't see him as becomming much more than a number three starter in the big leagues. As such, I can't rate him much higher than he is now.

[ChiefsVoice]

Until he actually throws a pitch above rookie ball, let alone posts 20 wins in his first 25 decisions, I don't know how anyone in their right mind could have Pawelek ahead of Gallagher.

 

Sean has proven he already knows how to pitch AND win at two levels and if last night is any indication he can hold his own at a 3rd level too.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

1. OF Felix Pie

2. RHP Carlos Marmol

3. LHP Sean Marshall

4. SS Ronny Cedeno

5. RHP Sean Gallagher

6. LHP Mark Pawelek

7. 2B Eric Patterson

8. RHP Jae-Kuk Ryu

9. RHP Randy Wells

10. LHP Donnie Veal

11. 1B Brian Dopirak

12. RHP Mitch Atkins

13. C Jake Fox

14. C Mark Reed

15. RHP Mark Holliman

16. RHP Juan Mateo

17. 3B Scott Moore

18. RHRP Michael Phelps

19. RHP Justin Berg

20. RHP Billy Petrick

21. RF Ryan Harvey

22. RHP Scott Taylor

23. C Geovany Soto

 

EDIT: Added Soto, took out Dylan Johnston.

Edited June 17, 2006 by CaliforniaRaisin

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Atkins has mostly relied on changing speeds and location thus far, but he throws low 90s stuff. I'm not sure about what secondary pitches he throws, though.

 

Low 90s fastball, change and curve.

[Mephistopheles]

Using W's to analyze SPs in the majors is pretty worthless. Using it to grade pitchers in the minors is even worse. The jump from A+ to AA is considerable.

[CubsWin]

In your mentionables, you put Scott Moore at high A, but I thought he was at AA West Tenn.

I also put Dopirak at High A. It was late, so late it was early.

[CubsWin]

I still don't see Gallagher being better than a #3 or so starter. Sure he's improved, but he still does not have projection.

 

I'm somewhat inclined to agree, but if he keeps putting up the numbers he has been as he moves along in the minors, I think there definitely is a bright future ahead of him. Heck, guys like Marshall and Marmol were always projected as possible 2/3 guys.

 

Felix Pie is still top dog in the farm system, imo.

 

As for your list, CubsWin, I'd throw Billy Petrick, Tyler Colvin, and Jeff Samardzija onto it.

I added Petrick. Good call.

 

I'll gladly add Colvin and Samardzija when they are officially signed.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Until he actually throws a pitch above rookie ball, let alone posts 20 wins in his first 25 decisions, I don't know how anyone in their right mind could have Pawelek ahead of Gallagher.

 

Sean has proven he already knows how to pitch AND win at two levels and if last night is any indication he can hold his own at a 3rd level too.

 

Well, it comes down to which you consider more important in a prospect (and how much you value each) - ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling.

 

Then again, if Gallagher's pitch velocity has indeed reached the mid-90s and his breaking pitches become the plus pitches I think they will, I think his ceiling will be higher than a #3 pitcher.

[CubsWin]

I still don't see Gallagher being better than a #3 or so starter. Sure he's improved, but he still does not have projection.

During his AA debut last night, he was hitting 94 with some regularity and touched 96. How much more projection does he have to have?

 

He is a 20-year-old pitching at AA who by all scouting reports is able to locate a low-to-mid 90s fastball with consistency and has a good curve, good slurve and a good changeup. I'm not saying his ceiling is similar, but that scouting report sounds a lot like Mark Prior's.

 

Given his age, his level and the fact that he is currently performing well, he and Pie are the top two prospects in my mind.

[CubsWin]

Until he actually throws a pitch above rookie ball, let alone posts 20 wins in his first 25 decisions, I don't know how anyone in their right mind could have Pawelek ahead of Gallagher.

 

Sean has proven he already knows how to pitch AND win at two levels and if last night is any indication he can hold his own at a 3rd level too.

 

Well, it comes down to which you consider more important in a prospect (and how much you value each) - ceiling and the likelihood of reaching that ceiling.

 

Then again, if Gallagher's pitch velocity has indeed reached the mid-90s and his breaking pitches become the plus pitches I think they will, I think his ceiling will be higher than a #3 pitcher.

I thinking about the same thing.

 

This list is a little different than a straight prospects list in that it is the best that are under 23, which, to me, means less of an emphasis on current performance and a little more emphasis on youth and ceiling.

 

However, a mixture of both would be ideal. Gallagher possesses that mixture while Pawelek simply hasn't pitched enough at high enough levels to show what he can do. He may indeed be better than Sean and simply hasn't had a chance to prove it, but Sean has been given those chances and is performing well, so, for the moment, I think Gallagher or Pie have to top this list. If Sean's performance sours in West Tenn, that would likely change.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

He is a 20-year-old pitching at AA who by all scouting reports is able to locate a low-to-mid 90s fastball with consistency and has a good curve, good slurve and a good changeup. I'm not saying his ceiling is similar, but that scouting report sounds a lot like Mark Prior's.

 

His curve and slider still need some work (consistancy) to be above average pitches. I don't think his changeup is anymore than average, even with the improvements to it (it was below average last year). The scouting report, especially the physical frame of the two pitchers, doesn't sound like Prior. His control and the quality of his pitches isn't at Prior's 2002 level yet.

 

Given his age, his level and the fact that he is currently performing well, he and Pie are the top two prospects in my mind.

 

I think Guzman and Marmol are ahead of Gallagher too.

 

I do think Gallagher rates as higher than a #3 pitcher if the improvements he has made (in terms of the quality of his breaking pitches and changeup) remain, along with the better velocity on the FB. But even comparing just his scouting report to 2002 Prior is getting ahead of ourselves, for now.

[CubsWin]

Given his age, his level and the fact that he is currently performing well, he and Pie are the top two prospects in my mind.

 

I think Guzman and Marmol are ahead of Gallagher too.

 

I do think Gallagher rates as higher than a #3 pitcher if the improvements he has made (in terms of the quality of his breaking pitches and changeup) remain, along with the better velocity on the FB. But even comparing just his scouting report to 2002 Prior is getting ahead of ourselves, for now.

Guzman is 24 and thus can't be considered for this list. Marmol is a better pitcher than Gallagher is right now, but he is also 23 while Gallagher is just 20. How much better will Sean get in the next 3 seasons?

 

As far as Prior is concerned, I qualified my statement when I first made it by saying that I was not comparing the two pitcher's ceilings. I don't think that can be compared really. I never compared their frames either. So I agree with you on both counts. But they are similar in their abilities to locate a low-to-mid 90s fastball.

 

And, perhaps the source is a little biased, but to read Gallagher's own comments and more importantly BA's comments on his breaking pitches and changeup, they sounded a little further ahead than you described.

BA: The fastball aside, managers in the Midwest League rated your curveball as the best in that league last year. We've gotten varied reports on what kind of pitch it really is, so what is your overall assessment of that pitch at this point?

 

SG: Well, that's probably because I throw two different kinds. One is a loopy curve that I know I can get over for a strike when I need to. And it's not bad loopy, it's something that has been keeping hitters a little off balance, which is always good. The other one is a hard snapper I'll throw when I'm 0-1 or 0-2 in the count. My confidence in both of them is definitely there, but I really had a lot of trouble with it early on. I was using a slider a lot late in the season last year, and I tried to bring it back again this season. But when I started throwing the slider, I started to lose my feel for my curveball. I made the decision to scrap it completely and two starts later my curveball was all the way back to where it was before.

 

It's just been over the last couple starts that I've brought the slider back a little bit. I'll just drop it in there every now and then to get in a hitter's head.

 

BA: A scout we talked to said your changeup had come a long way from last season. Have you done anything different to improve it?

 

SG: It's been a lot better than it was. Early on in my career it was basically a BP fastball, which wasn't fun. But that was because I was trying to get it to dance and sink with my arm action--I didn't really mess with the grip. It turned out to be the grip that it needed to make it more effective. My arm action was fine, I just smoothed it out a little bit and focused on the grip. If I let the grip do the action, it's got some nice sink and fade at the end.

 

And this from another scout quoted by Baseball Prospectus...

"Give him credit, he's found a lot more on the fastball, which is 92-93 mph now and he just pounds the strike zone with it," said the scout. "The breaking ball is hard and sharp, the body is still a little square-ish, but he's strong and durable--it's a pretty nice overall package."

[ChiefsVoice]

Using W's to analyze SPs in the majors is pretty worthless. Using it to grade pitchers in the minors is even worse. The jump from A+ to AA is considerable.

 

so you'd rather they lose? that makes a lot sense. Why even have Low A and High A then if you are just gonna discount everything the players do here and just go off potential?

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Given his age, his level and the fact that he is currently performing well, he and Pie are the top two prospects in my mind.

 

I think Guzman and Marmol are ahead of Gallagher too.

 

I do think Gallagher rates as higher than a #3 pitcher if the improvements he has made (in terms of the quality of his breaking pitches and changeup) remain, along with the better velocity on the FB. But even comparing just his scouting report to 2002 Prior is getting ahead of ourselves, for now.

Guzman is 24 and thus can't be considered for this list. Marmol is a better pitcher than Gallagher is right now, but he is also 23 while Gallagher is just 20. How much better will Sean get in the next 3 seasons?

 

I was referring to Guzma on an overall Cubs top prospect list.

 

Marmol has also only been pitching for 4 years, so he still has a way to go in improvement. How much better will Carlos get in the next 3 seasons? His ceiling is higher than Gallagher's.

 

As far as Prior is concerned, I qualified my statement when I first made it by saying that I was not comparing the two pitcher's ceilings. I don't think that can be compared really. I never compared their frames either. So I agree with you on both counts. But they are similar in their abilities to locate a low-to-mid 90s fastball.

 

My point was that Prior at AA was able to locate his fastball better than Gallagher has so it's not a fair comparison.

 

And, perhaps the source is a little biased, but to read Gallagher's own comments and more importantly BA's comments on his breaking pitches and changeup, they sounded a little further ahead than you described.

 

I took into account both comments when I was talking about his slider, curve and change. I want to see more consistancy on Sean's curve, especially given the problems he has mentioned in regards losing his feel for it. Also, I don't think his "loopy" curve (used for location) will be effective at higher levels.

 

All in all, I don't think it's far fetched to imagine Sean with a low-90s fastball, a plus slider, plus curve and an average change, along with good control in the big leagues. But I get the feeling his breaking pitches still need some work, and part of his higher ranking by you is based on how advanced those pitches are.

Edited June 17, 2006 by CaliforniaRaisin

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Using W's to analyze SPs in the majors is pretty worthless. Using it to grade pitchers in the minors is even worse. The jump from A+ to AA is considerable.

 

so you'd rather they lose? that makes a lot sense. Why even have Low A and High A then if you are just gonna discount everything the players do here and just go off potential?

 

Wins are a poor metric to rate a pitcher by anywhere, but especially in the low minors where pitchers don't go as long and relievers aren't always the best.

 

Kc wasn't talking about wins or losses as a team stat but just that they are an incomplete and poor stat to judge a pitcher with. I'd rather judge a pitcher based on peripheral stats involving walk and strikeout rates, WHIP, BAA, etc. At the lower levels of the minor leagues, scouting and "potential" is still very important since the players haven't played professionally for long and have a ways to reach a finished product. Also at the lower levels, prospects can be playing against far less advanced competition which will allow them to rack up the stats.