Zambrano's Last Two Outings - Solid...and Lucky?

[TheDude]

I'm trying to figure if Zambrano's last two outsings were a return to form or infused with much needed luck. I didn't get to watch either game, being on the East Coast. I'm not hip to the generation of those types of pitching splits over a handful of starts, so maybe someone more keen than I could put them up.

 

What causes me to raise my brow and ask the question is the base stat line:

 

15 IP, 8 BB, 16 K, 9 Hits Against

 

It's great to see 15 IP and 1 ER, but 8 bloody walks in incredible. He's still wild as hell, but for the first two times all season the walks didn't bite him. I don't understand why any opposing team right now would bother swinging the bat against him.

 

I really just want to see if the splits show a turn-around in performance for future indicator or good defense behind balls that didn't find holes.

 

Results are results, and being the stopper of the losing streak is important. So great job Zambrano and keep it up.

[RyCubsFan]

I'm trying to figure if Zambrano's last two outsings were a return to form or infused with much needed luck. I didn't get to watch either game, being on the East Coast. I'm not hip to the generation of those types of pitching splits over a handful of starts, so maybe someone more keen than I could put them up.

 

What causes me to raise my brow and ask the question is the base stat line:

 

15 IP, 8 BB, 16 K, 9 Hits Against

 

It's great to see 15 IP and 1 ER, but 8 bloody walks in incredible. He's still wild as hell, but for the first two times all season the walks didn't bite him. I don't understand why any opposing team right now would bother swinging the bat against him.

 

I really just want to see if the splits show a turn-around in performance for future indicator or good defense behind balls that didn't find holes.

 

Results are results, and being the stopper of the losing streak is important. So great job Zambrano and keep it up.

 

 

I don't think it's luck. 17 Walks/hits in 15 IP is a very good WHIP...and doesn't make for a lot of runs by an opponent. Also, a k an inning is a good indication that he's throwing the ball well.

 

That said, I'd certainly like to see big Z cut down on his walks.

[goonys evil twin]

Some of his walks yesterday were the result of a ridiculous strike zone. Even SF announcers called a few a gift from the umpire. Zambrano also pitched around a couple of at-bats, with bases open.

 

Yes, control is an issue, but I think it's getting better. I think he's getting over his post WBC slide and will keep improving.

[TheDude]

Also, a k an inning is a good indication that he's throwing the ball well.

 

He had more than a K per inning in the first 6 starts also. In Z's case, that is not an indicator of performance. He's going to get a K per inning in both good and bad outings.

[rocket]

Zambrano's stuff did look the nastiest I've seen all year. His pitch that got Bonds looking should be outlawed in its unfairness.

[TheDude]

Zambrano's stuff did look the nastiest I've seen all year. His pitch that got Bonds looking should be outlawed in its unfairness.

 

That's the only pitch of the game I saw, when it was replayed on Sports Center. That was a devastating pitch. Too bad half the time it won't be called a strike for Zambrano due to his wildness.

[kente777]

Apparently, him and Rothschild looked over some old tapes and "Z" found he wasn't using his legs as much --mostly arm.

 

I think the last two starts are since he made those form changes. I think this is a real good omen.

 

Ken

[jjgman21]

the walks are disconcerting, but as mentioned the big problem was yesterday with the small zone. however, Z was extremely lucky yesterday, particularly in the first inning, when he gave up two walks and several really hard hit balls that managed to find fielders.

[Mark_R]

Zambrano's stuff did look the nastiest I've seen all year. His pitch that got Bonds looking should be outlawed in its unfairness.

 

That's the only pitch of the game I saw, when it was replayed on Sports Center. That was a devastating pitch. Too bad half the time it won't be called a strike for Zambrano due to his wildness.

 

If it was called on Bonds, who has the strikezone of a midget at the plate, then Z will consistently get it called.

[snoodmonger]

yikes. i just saw that bonds K. nasty.

[TheDude]

Zambrano's stuff did look the nastiest I've seen all year. His pitch that got Bonds looking should be outlawed in its unfairness.

 

That's the only pitch of the game I saw, when it was replayed on Sports Center. That was a devastating pitch. Too bad half the time it won't be called a strike for Zambrano due to his wildness.

 

If it was called on Bonds, who has the strikezone of a midget at the plate, then Z will consistently get it called.

 

I don't think so. Strike zone is a big issue for Zambrano. In a perfect world, I think he has quite a few less walks given strike zone tightness. But when a pitcher is wild to the tune of 4-5 walks per game, umpires generally don't give that guy the close call as often as someone with good command.

 

Fewer walks and border calls go hand in hand. Maddux benefitted for years on an extended zone, which was built on a reputation of minimal walks.

 

It's not uncommon for fans to constantly complain about their teams' pitchers getting squeezed, particularly in a loss. Perhaps it's just my perception, but the complaints about getting squeezed occur more frequently with Zambrano than any other Cubs pitcher. Unconscious movement and a reputation for lack of command will inflate the perception even more.

 

So honestly, I am surprised he got he call, and am generally surprised he gets any close calls right now.

[CubinNY]

Zambrano's stuff did look the nastiest I've seen all year. His pitch that got Bonds looking should be outlawed in its unfairness.

 

That's the only pitch of the game I saw, when it was replayed on Sports Center. That was a devastating pitch. Too bad half the time it won't be called a strike for Zambrano due to his wildness.

 

If it was called on Bonds, who has the strikezone of a midget at the plate, then Z will consistently get it called.

 

I don't think so. Strike zone is a big issue for Zambrano. In a perfect world, I think he has quite a few less walks given strike zone tightness. But when a pitcher is wild to the tune of 4-5 walks per game, umpires generally don't give that guy the close call as often as someone with good command.

 

Fewer walks and border calls go hand in hand. Maddux benefitted for years on an extended zone, which was built on a reputation of minimal walks.

 

It's not uncommon for fans to constantly complain about their teams' pitchers getting squeezed, particularly in a loss. Perhaps it's just my perception, but the complaints about getting squeezed occur more frequently with Zambrano than any other Cubs pitcher. Unconscious movement and a reputation for lack of command will inflate the perception even more.

 

So honestly, I am surprised he got he call, and am generally surprised he gets any close calls right now.

 

I think that is a load of garbage. The umpires don't care who is at the plate or on the mound. I think they do their best to call a consistent strike zone, but they are human.

 

The questteck numbers they have been keeping for the past couple of years bear that out.

[ltb]

zambrano currently leads the majors in both strikeouts (54) and walks (33)

 

haha

[goonys evil twin]

zambrano currently leads the majors in both strikeouts (54) and walks (33)

 

haha

 

That's kind of strange. Despite the reputation, Zambrano isn't really that much of a strikeout pitcher. I mean, he gets his fair share, but he's not really a threat to lead the league in K's unless he leads the league in innings pitched as well. In the minors he was at around 7.4 K/9, in the pros he's been around 7.7 K/9. This year he's been at 9.99 K/9.

[stitchface]

zambrano currently leads the majors in both strikeouts (54) and walks (33)

 

haha

 

That's kind of strange. Despite the reputation, Zambrano isn't really that much of a strikeout pitcher. I mean, he gets his fair share, but he's not really a threat to lead the league in K's unless he leads the league in innings pitched as well. In the minors he was at around 7.4 K/9, in the pros he's been around 7.7 K/9. This year he's been at 9.99 K/9.

 

does anyone have the numbers on his peformance relative to his walks? It seems like when he gets a lot of ks he struggles but that might be a biased perception.

[ltb]

does anyone have the numbers on his peformance relative to his walks? It seems like when he gets a lot of ks he struggles but that might be a biased perception.

 

Date - Opp - K/BB

4/3 - @CIN - 5/5

4/8 - STL - 5/4

4/13 - CIN - 8/3

4/18 - @LA - 3/5

4/24 - FLA - 12/3

4/30 - MIL - 5/5

5/5 - @SD - 10/3

5/10 - @SF - 6/5

 

doesn't look like he struggles with control when he gets a lot of k's (see 4/24 and 5/5), but it is interesting to note that he has 0 games with under 3 walks this year.

[Proven Veteran]

I thought he had nasty stuff last night. I agree with Goony, several of the walks were pretty much intentional, and the zone was questionable. I thought Rich Hill got some strikes taken away the other night also. On his curve, batters would bail out even though the ball would end up over the plate, and the umpire would call it a ball.

[goonys evil twin]

zambrano currently leads the majors in both strikeouts (54) and walks (33)

 

haha

 

That's kind of strange. Despite the reputation, Zambrano isn't really that much of a strikeout pitcher. I mean, he gets his fair share, but he's not really a threat to lead the league in K's unless he leads the league in innings pitched as well. In the minors he was at around 7.4 K/9, in the pros he's been around 7.7 K/9. This year he's been at 9.99 K/9.

 

does anyone have the numbers on his peformance relative to his walks? It seems like when he gets a lot of ks he struggles but that might be a biased perception.

 

6.1 BB/9 this year. 4.25 in the minors, 3.92 in the majors.

 

2005 was his highest k/9 year of his career (8.14) and the lowest BB/9 and WHIP year of his career (3.47/9 - 1.15).

[jjgman21]

Zambrano's stuff did look the nastiest I've seen all year. His pitch that got Bonds looking should be outlawed in its unfairness.

 

That's the only pitch of the game I saw, when it was replayed on Sports Center. That was a devastating pitch. Too bad half the time it won't be called a strike for Zambrano due to his wildness.

 

If it was called on Bonds, who has the strikezone of a midget at the plate, then Z will consistently get it called.

 

I don't think so. Strike zone is a big issue for Zambrano. In a perfect world, I think he has quite a few less walks given strike zone tightness. But when a pitcher is wild to the tune of 4-5 walks per game, umpires generally don't give that guy the close call as often as someone with good command.

 

Fewer walks and border calls go hand in hand. Maddux benefitted for years on an extended zone, which was built on a reputation of minimal walks.

 

It's not uncommon for fans to constantly complain about their teams' pitchers getting squeezed, particularly in a loss. Perhaps it's just my perception, but the complaints about getting squeezed occur more frequently with Zambrano than any other Cubs pitcher. Unconscious movement and a reputation for lack of command will inflate the perception even more.

 

So honestly, I am surprised he got he call, and am generally surprised he gets any close calls right now.

 

I think that is a load of garbage. The umpires don't care who is at the plate or on the mound. I think they do their best to call a consistent strike zone, but they are human.

 

The questteck numbers they have been keeping for the past couple of years bear that out.

 

I think that is a load of garbage. first, stars and control pitchers get better calls. I remember the WBC game with Clemens on the mound against South Africa, and Sutcliffe's comment was something to the effect of "you know Rocket is used to getting that call with Major League umpires." saying otherwise is admirable in the sense that you will accept no quarter, but its pretty damn naive at the same time.

 

furthermore, questech was not designed to measure, and could not possibly be interpreted as determining, what players are getting better calls. it measures the umpires ability to get balls and strikes correct without regard for the players, teams, and situations. in my opinion that has always been the biggest problem with the system.

[TheDude]

I think that is a load of garbage. The umpires don't care who is at the plate or on the mound. I think they do their best to call a consistent strike zone, but they are human.

 

The questteck numbers they have been keeping for the past couple of years bear that out.

 

Do you ever have it in you to disagree with someone without being so nasty?

 

You mention umpires are human like everyone else and yet you are also suggesting they aren't succeptible to perception or reputation like all other people :?.

 

But even if I accept the reputation-plays-no-factor element of your point just for argument's sake (which I don't), it still doesn't account for "in-game" perception of that performance, regardless of permanent perception or reputation.

 

Strike zones get establsihed during the game. Pitchers that pound the strike zone get more strikes called throughout the game, including border calls. A pitcher that comes out in the 1st inning and throw 15 balls and 5 strikes often won't get those border calls throughout the rest of the game because they have already demonstarted wildness and lack of command. That's just the way it is.

[CubinNY]

I think that is a load of garbage. The umpires don't care who is at the plate or on the mound. I think they do their best to call a consistent strike zone, but they are human.

 

The questteck numbers they have been keeping for the past couple of years bear that out.

 

Do you ever have it in you to disagree with someone without being so nasty?

 

You mention umpires are human like everyone else and yet you are also suggesting they aren't succeptible to perception or reputation like all other people :?.

 

But even if I accept the reputation-plays-no-factor element of your point just for argument's sake (which I don't), it still doesn't account for "in-game" perception of that performance, regardless of permanent perception or reputation.

 

Strike zones get establsihed during the game. Pitchers that pound the strike zone get more strikes called throughout the game, including border calls. A pitcher that comes out in the 1st inning and throw 15 balls and 5 strikes often won't get those border calls throughout the rest of the game because they have already demonstarted wildness and lack of command. That's just the way it is.

 

That is simply not true.

 

Just so I get your analysis down here. You are saying a pitcher who throws strikes will get strikes called?

 

If a guy is wild, balls will be called if he throws strikes, strikes will be called.

 

You or anyone else cannot tell if a ball is in the strike zone or not sitting in your home watching on TV. The angle of the camera is not centered.

 

Everyone makes mistakes, but there is no reward system for being around the plate most of the time in the early going. That is pure mythology born of ex-ballplayer broadcasters.

 

That's just the way it is.

[srbin84]

I think that is a load of garbage. The umpires don't care who is at the plate or on the mound. I think they do their best to call a consistent strike zone, but they are human.

 

The questteck numbers they have been keeping for the past couple of years bear that out.

 

Do you ever have it in you to disagree with someone without being so nasty?

 

You mention umpires are human like everyone else and yet you are also suggesting they aren't succeptible to perception or reputation like all other people :?.

 

But even if I accept the reputation-plays-no-factor element of your point just for argument's sake (which I don't), it still doesn't account for "in-game" perception of that performance, regardless of permanent perception or reputation.

 

Strike zones get establsihed during the game. Pitchers that pound the strike zone get more strikes called throughout the game, including border calls. A pitcher that comes out in the 1st inning and throw 15 balls and 5 strikes often won't get those border calls throughout the rest of the game because they have already demonstarted wildness and lack of command. That's just the way it is.

 

That is simply not true.

 

Just so I get your analysis down here. You are saying a pitcher who throws strikes will get strikes called?

 

If a guy is wild, balls will be called if he throws strikes, strikes will be called.

 

You or anyone else cannot tell if a ball is in the strike zone or not sitting in your home watching on TV. The angle of the camera is not centered.

 

Everyone makes mistakes, but there is no reward system for being around the plate most of the time in the early going. That is pure mythology born of ex-ballplayer broadcasters.

 

That's just the way it is.

 

The Braves pitchers always got an extra inch or so off the plate. Some umpires are a little more liberal with a guy who is consistently painting the corners.

[CubinNY]

I think that is a load of garbage. The umpires don't care who is at the plate or on the mound. I think they do their best to call a consistent strike zone, but they are human.

 

The questteck numbers they have been keeping for the past couple of years bear that out.

 

Do you ever have it in you to disagree with someone without being so nasty?

 

You mention umpires are human like everyone else and yet you are also suggesting they aren't succeptible to perception or reputation like all other people :?.

 

But even if I accept the reputation-plays-no-factor element of your point just for argument's sake (which I don't), it still doesn't account for "in-game" perception of that performance, regardless of permanent perception or reputation.

 

Strike zones get establsihed during the game. Pitchers that pound the strike zone get more strikes called throughout the game, including border calls. A pitcher that comes out in the 1st inning and throw 15 balls and 5 strikes often won't get those border calls throughout the rest of the game because they have already demonstarted wildness and lack of command. That's just the way it is.

 

That is simply not true.

 

Just so I get your analysis down here. You are saying a pitcher who throws strikes will get strikes called?

 

If a guy is wild, balls will be called if he throws strikes, strikes will be called.

 

You or anyone else cannot tell if a ball is in the strike zone or not sitting in your home watching on TV. The angle of the camera is not centered.

 

Everyone makes mistakes, but there is no reward system for being around the plate most of the time in the early going. That is pure mythology born of ex-ballplayer broadcasters.

 

That's just the way it is.

 

The Braves pitchers always got an extra inch or so off the plate. Some umpires are a little more liberal with a guy who is consistently painting the corners.

 

I don't think this is true.

[Mark_R]

I think that is a load of garbage. The umpires don't care who is at the plate or on the mound. I think they do their best to call a consistent strike zone, but they are human.

 

The questteck numbers they have been keeping for the past couple of years bear that out.

 

Do you ever have it in you to disagree with someone without being so nasty?

 

You mention umpires are human like everyone else and yet you are also suggesting they aren't succeptible to perception or reputation like all other people :?.

 

But even if I accept the reputation-plays-no-factor element of your point just for argument's sake (which I don't), it still doesn't account for "in-game" perception of that performance, regardless of permanent perception or reputation.

 

Strike zones get establsihed during the game. Pitchers that pound the strike zone get more strikes called throughout the game, including border calls. A pitcher that comes out in the 1st inning and throw 15 balls and 5 strikes often won't get those border calls throughout the rest of the game because they have already demonstarted wildness and lack of command. That's just the way it is.

 

That is simply not true.

 

Just so I get your analysis down here. You are saying a pitcher who throws strikes will get strikes called?

 

If a guy is wild, balls will be called if he throws strikes, strikes will be called.

 

You or anyone else cannot tell if a ball is in the strike zone or not sitting in your home watching on TV. The angle of the camera is not centered.

 

Everyone makes mistakes, but there is no reward system for being around the plate most of the time in the early going. That is pure mythology born of ex-ballplayer broadcasters.

 

That's just the way it is.

 

The Braves pitchers always got an extra inch or so off the plate. Some umpires are a little more liberal with a guy who is consistently painting the corners.

 

I don't think this is true.

 

Then you're wrong.

[CubinNY]

I think that is a load of garbage. The umpires don't care who is at the plate or on the mound. I think they do their best to call a consistent strike zone, but they are human.

 

The questteck numbers they have been keeping for the past couple of years bear that out.

 

Do you ever have it in you to disagree with someone without being so nasty?

 

You mention umpires are human like everyone else and yet you are also suggesting they aren't succeptible to perception or reputation like all other people :?.

 

But even if I accept the reputation-plays-no-factor element of your point just for argument's sake (which I don't), it still doesn't account for "in-game" perception of that performance, regardless of permanent perception or reputation.

 

Strike zones get establsihed during the game. Pitchers that pound the strike zone get more strikes called throughout the game, including border calls. A pitcher that comes out in the 1st inning and throw 15 balls and 5 strikes often won't get those border calls throughout the rest of the game because they have already demonstarted wildness and lack of command. That's just the way it is.

 

That is simply not true.

 

Just so I get your analysis down here. You are saying a pitcher who throws strikes will get strikes called?

 

If a guy is wild, balls will be called if he throws strikes, strikes will be called.

 

You or anyone else cannot tell if a ball is in the strike zone or not sitting in your home watching on TV. The angle of the camera is not centered.

 

Everyone makes mistakes, but there is no reward system for being around the plate most of the time in the early going. That is pure mythology born of ex-ballplayer broadcasters.

 

That's just the way it is.

 

The Braves pitchers always got an extra inch or so off the plate. Some umpires are a little more liberal with a guy who is consistently painting the corners.

 

I don't think this is true.

 

Then you're wrong.

 

prove it.

 

At some point in our lives we all have to wake up a question if what we are told is true.

 

Then again maybe it is only some people that do that.

Edited May 11, 2006 by CubinNY