Baker on Cedeno in suntimes

[CubsWin]

Pagan or Restovich should be on the team over Grissom. This has a "Lenny-esque" feel to it though.

 

 

I like the thought of Restovich being our right handed corner outfield bat off the bench. He has far more potential than Grissom, I think, LOL. He;s not a prospect, but he looks like he could be coming into his power.

Clearly, Grissom hasn't earned a spot on the Cubs roster as of now. So, I've been thinking about Pagan and Restovich and who would be better? I like Pagan. I like that he is still only 24 and has speed as well as some power. It is interesting to note that of the three, Grissom, Restovich and Pagan, Pagan is the only one currently on the 40-man roster. The only problem is that as a player type, he is very similar to Hairston and would basically be duplicating him on the roster. The Cubs lack power off the bench and thus have a greater need for someone like Restovich.

 

But, at this point, its anybody but Grissom for me.

 

Pagan is having a nice spring, but the guy has over 2200 Minor League PA's and has a SLG of .373 and an awful .095 IsoP. I wouldn't count on many XBH's from him. My preference is Restovich, because he has minor league performance in addition to the tools that got him(and Pagan) drafted so high, and he isn't redundant with another player on the roster like you said.

I didn't say that Pagan had some power because of how he is hitting this spring. I said it because of the numbers he put up last season at AAA. Pagan clearly isn't in the same power catagory as is Restovich, but as a 24-year-old, his power numbers will be better than when he was younger thus, his career minor league SLG% doesn't hold a lot of water with me.

 

At this point, my preference is Restovich as well for the reasons I laid out in the previous post. But I think Pagan has the potential to hit 10-15 HRs, 10-15 triples and plenty of doubles. That's not too shabby when it comes to SLG%.

[stitchface]

choosing pagan makes even less sense than grissom.

[stitchface]

but as a 24-year-old, his power numbers will be better than when he was younger thus, his career minor league SLG% doesn't hold a lot of water with me.

 

what makes you think he'll suddenly hit for power? its not like he is slugging .450 with a ton of doubles. I don't think a lot of players suddenly gain power at 24 or 25 unless they get hooked up.

[treebird]

i'm a big fan of not looking at a player's spring training numbers when assigning jobs.

 

i'm NOT a big fan of not looking at a player's major/minor league numbers from recent seasons, especially the most recent season in the case of guys who are way old.

 

one out of two isn't bad.

[CubsWin]

but as a 24-year-old, his power numbers will be better than when he was younger thus, his career minor league SLG% doesn't hold a lot of water with me.

 

what makes you think he'll suddenly hit for power? its not like he is slugging .450 with a ton of doubles. I don't think a lot of players suddenly gain power at 24 or 25 unless they get hooked up.

Come on, stitchface.

 

I never said that he would hit for power, just that he would have some power, meaning more than Otis Nixon. Go back and read it again, its there, twice. Plus, I also already explained on what I based that assessment, his numbers last season at AAA.

 

In 516 ABs, he had 8 HRs, 10 triples and 20 doubles. Those numbers, given a full season leading off over 162 games instead of the shortened minor league season, could translate to what I described (10-15 HRs, 10-15 triples and plenty of doubles) given that he fulfills his potential, successfully adjusts to the major leagues and takes his talent to the next level.

 

As far as his career minor league SLG% not holding a lot of water, it doesn't because much of those numbers were put up when he was younger and thus skinnier and less powerful. Now that he is 24, he is probably about as powerful as he is going to get, and so I based his potential power numbers on what he most recently has accomplished, not what he was doing when he was younger.

Edited March 24, 2006 by CubsWin

[CubsWin]

i'm a big fan of not looking at a player's spring training numbers when assigning jobs.

 

i'm NOT a big fan of not looking at a player's major/minor league numbers from recent seasons, especially the most recent season in the case of guys who are way old.

 

one out of two isn't bad.

Totally agree. That's what I've been saying.

 

Disregard Pagan's numbers this spring and look at what he did most recently over a full season to get the more accurate view of what he is capable of.

[CubsWin]

choosing pagan makes even less sense than grissom.

You might be right. Then again, Grissom is getting old...fast. He had a huge drop-off last season and that is his most recent performance. It is possible that he will bounce back, absolutely. But most trends continue in the same direction as a player nears 40. Grissom will be 39 in a month.

 

Pagan is 24 and may continue to improve over the next couple of years. Many players don't reach their peak performance years until they turn 27 or 28 (Derrek Lee). Pagan may also not improve, but he has more speed now than does Grissom, will be a superior late-inning defensive replacement, he put up a better OBP last year at AAA than Grissom averaged over the course of his career, and he isn't coming off of a hugely disappointing season last year.

 

That said, I still think Restovich makes the most sense, at this point. Pagan would be a good guy to have in AAA in case Hairston goes down with an injury.

[stitchface]

choosing pagan makes even less sense than grissom.

You might be right. Then again, Grissom is getting old...fast. He had a huge drop-off last season and that is his most recent performance. It is possible that he will bounce back, absolutely. But most trends continue in the same direction as a player nears 40. Grissom will be 39 in a month.

 

Pagan is 24 and may continue to improve over the next couple of years. Many players don't reach their peak performance years until they turn 27 or 28 (Derrek Lee). Pagan may also not improve, but he has more speed now than does Grissom, will be a superior late-inning defensive replacement, he put up a better OBP last year at AAA than Grissom averaged over the course of his career, and he isn't coming off of a hugely disappointing season last year.

 

That said, I still think Restovich makes the most sense, at this point. Pagan would be a good guy to have in AAA in case Hairston goes down with an injury.

 

You make some good points - keep in mind I'm no fan of grissom. Players peak at 27 but that doesn't mean they are on a linear growth curve until then. the improvement from 24 to 27 is likely to be far smaller than from 21 to 24.

[imb]

I sure wish we had a guy that could put up a .348/.367/.870/.1237 line. Didnt we have a guy like that last year?

 

Oh wait, we did. His name was Scott McClain and he is freaking terrible. Spring training numbers dont mean a thing, and the numbers these losers have been putting up have been against the collective dead weight that were not only not on WBC rosters, but were just spring training trash.

 

Restovich, Pagan or Grissom. Who cares, whoever wins that battle, we lose.

[CubsWin]

I sure wish we had a guy that could put up a .348/.367/.870/.1237 line. Didnt we have a guy like that last year?

 

Oh wait, we did. His name was Scott McClain and he is freaking terrible. Spring training numbers dont mean a thing, and the numbers these losers have been putting up have been against the collective dead weight that were not only not on WBC rosters, but were just spring training trash.

Perhaps I missed something, but has anyone in the last few pages of this thread based anything on anyone's spring training numbers? People keep mentioning that basing your opinion of a player on his spring training numbers is a bad idea but no one is doing that, are they?

 

Restovich, Pagan or Grissom. Who cares, whoever wins that battle, we lose.

True, is any team's 25th man someone to get excited over?

[nilodnayr]

I sure wish we had a guy that could put up a .348/.367/.870/.1237 line. Didnt we have a guy like that last year?

 

Oh wait, we did. His name was Scott McClain and he is freaking terrible. Spring training numbers dont mean a thing, and the numbers these losers have been putting up have been against the collective dead weight that were not only not on WBC rosters, but were just spring training trash.

 

Restovich, Pagan or Grissom. Who cares, whoever wins that battle, we lose.

 

If by lose you mean win by not having Jose Macias on the team and dusty batting him second once a week and pinch hitting every game in important situations, then yes, we totally lose.

[CuseCubFan69]

I sure wish we had a guy that could put up a .348/.367/.870/.1237 line. Didnt we have a guy like that last year?

 

Oh wait, we did. His name was Scott McClain and he is freaking terrible. Spring training numbers dont mean a thing, and the numbers these losers have been putting up have been against the collective dead weight that were not only not on WBC rosters, but were just spring training trash.

 

Restovich, Pagan or Grissom. Who cares, whoever wins that battle, we lose.

 

Just so you know Mr. McClain had a game winning hit for Oakland the other day. He is the King of Spring.