2005; A Year Later; The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.

[Quakers]

I would like to see an article that follows up on last years draft, pointing out who was sucessful, who wasn't, and why and why not. T2E, Craig, raw??

[goonys evil twin]

I would like to see an article that follows up on last years draft, pointing out who was sucessful, who wasn't, and why and why not. T2E, Craig, raw??

 

It might be a little more realistic to make the judgement on the 2004 draft. 2005 was too recent to get a solid understanding of the winners and losers.

[Outshined_One]

I would like to see an article that follows up on last years draft, pointing out who was sucessful, who wasn't, and why and why not. T2E, Craig, raw??

 

It might be a little more realistic to make the judgement on the 2004 draft. 2005 was too recent to get a solid understanding of the winners and losers.

 

I like this idea. I've been meaning to find something to use as an excuse to procrastinate, so I'll try whipping something up tonight.

[Outshined_One]

Alright, time to go over these guys... I'll skip over a few of the lower round guys who didn't end up doing much.

 

2nd Round RHP Grant Johnson

Thoughts: It took him awhile to sign, but he's had a few injury troubles trip him up before he was able to make his debut this past season. According to sources, he was bothered all season with a quad injury, affecting his performance. The potential is definitely there for him to make an impact in the majors (I'm guessing as a reliever because of his slider), but this is a wait and see case. There's a lot to like, though.

 

3rd Round C Mark Reed

Thoughts: Highly touted as an offensive prospect, but he hasn't quite shown that yet. I know a broken hand ended his season prematurely last year, but his numbers this past season were quite underwhelming. Although, word is he is doing a fair job behind the plate and could stick there given time.

 

4th Roundp LHP Chris Shaver

Thoughts: 6'7 hulking lefty from College of William & Mary. I don't quite know if his stuff ever improved from the 88-90 mph readings from prior to him getting drafted or what, but his numbers don't blow me out of the water.

 

5th Round OF Adrian Ortiz

Thoughts: This is probably the guy I was most disappointed in the Cubs missing out on. Tremendous speed demon with excellent potential. I hear he stumbled at Pepperdine last season, but I still think he might be a good one.

 

6th Round LHP Tim Layden

Thoughts: Reliever down in Peoria this past season. Some decent numbers, but we'll see how he progresses.

 

7th Round RHP Mitch Atkins

Thoughts: He's been floundering down in Boise and gives up a lot of home runs. However, he's still young and could make something of himself.

 

8th Round 2B Eric Patterson

Thoughts: Probably the best player out of this class. People are legitimately excited about his potential as the second baseman of the future. He still has some kinks to work out in his patience and gets a bit too homer-happy, but it seems like the Cubs are being much more careful with him than his brother. Could see some major league action at the end of the '06 season if he does well in West Tenn/Iowa.

 

9th Round 1B Ryan Norwood

Thoughts: Followed in the footsteps of Brian Dopirak and Ryan Harvey as the Boise power hitter du jour in 2004. Suffered a nasty injury at the start of this season that kept him out for the year. Great power potential, but he has all of the problems that came along with it.

 

10th Round OF Sam Fuld

Thoughts: Put up some pretty good numbers last season, although was rather old for Peoria. Most people see him as a potential utility OF, kinda like Adam Greenberg.

 

11th Round RHP Jonathan Hunton

Thoughts: A 6'9 righty who hasn't racked up much in the way of strikeouts and kept hits down during his time in Peoria and Boise.

 

12th Round RHP Sean Gallagher

Thoughts: Numbers-wise, quite possibly the best pitcher the Cubs had in the minors last season. Excelled in Peoria despite double jumping from Mesa. Has an excellent breaking ball, but his fastball and change give one pause when contemplating his future. Still, given how advanced he is, he could move quickly through the system from here on out now that he has a full healthy season under his belt.

 

After this point, there are a lot of unsigned and unspectacular guys, although a few stand out. This is true of most drafts, needless to say. I'll go over the notables.

 

14th Round OF Eli Iorg

Thoughts: Unsigned...freakin' Hochevar. Iorg is currently with Houston and seems to be on their fast track thanks to his success.

 

15th Round OF Alfred Joseph

Thoughts: Down in Mesa making the conversion to pitcher. No idea how he'll do in that role.

 

16th Round LHP J.R. Mathes

Thoughts: Unspectacular stuff, old for his league, but got results down in Daytona. Journeyman LOOGY is a distinct possibility.

 

17th Round RHP Jerry Blevins

Thoughts: Reliever with decent stuff. I may be confusing him for some one else, but I believe this guy skyrocketed up to Iowa from Peoria this season. Can't find his numbers, though.

 

19th Round RHP/OF Micah Owings

Thoughts: Another one that got away. *Sighs* Currently in Arizona's system as a pitcher.

 

20th Round LHP Trey Taylor

Thoughts: Re-drafted and signed in 2005.

 

30th Round 3B Russ Canzler

Thoughts: Very, very, very intriguing player. Spent the past two seasons down in the AZ League and put up some impressive numbers as a hitter. I think his major problem is a lack of a position, but I could be mistaken. Has good sleeper potential this season.

 

31st Round RHP Jesse Estrada

Thoughts: Another hulking (6'8) pitcher who seems to have unspectacular stuff. His numbers weren't all that great last season.

 

33rd Round OF Randy Brown

Thoughts: Spent last season down in Mesa and put up unspectacular numbers...except for 5 3Bs and 8 SBs (with 7 CS). If he's as speedy as those numbers indicate, he could develop into something.

 

48th Round C Olin Wick

Thoughts: The biggest Olin Wick fan on the planet!

 

Overall: It's too early to tell at this point which of these guys have All Star potential and which will wile away in the minors. Gallagher and Patterson both had tremendous seasons this past year and seem to be on the fast track to the majors. How well they will succeed if they reach the Cubs is anyone's guess.

 

The number of unsigned top guys also hurt. It would be really nice to have Iorg, Owings, and Ortiz in the system right now, especially considering that their signings would have likely made this a very good draft for the Cubs. Without them, this group doesn't make me feel particularly excited. I think it's a solid group of guys, but none of them strike me as guys who could jump to the top of the prospect charts.

 

Could I be wrong in that judgment? Of course! A lot of these guys are still trying to reach their ceilings and could end up being pleasant surprises for the Cubs in the next year or two.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Eli Iorg. :(

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Eli Iorg. :(

 

seconded

[craig]

Time will tell, but I'd guess the 2004 draft will largely depend on Johnson, Patterson, and Gallagher. Those would seem to be the three with still a shot to become starting players. I'd think Shaver and Layden have a shot to become fringe lefties, and Reed perhaps to make it as a fringe catcher. Atkins, still too early to know. I probably wouldn't see the odds at better than 50/50 that the 2004 draft provides even one average starter, though.

 

2005 draft, early results are very favorable, to answer your original question, Quaker. All the early feedback on Pawelek and Veal is extremely favorable, Phelps looks like a possible steal, and Billek, Holliman, Johnston, and Taylor all look interesting at this point. Yes, it's early. But nobody has come up with a bad arm, and none of the pitchers have shown oh-my-goodness-I-never-guessed-he'd-be-so-wild kind of thing. Dylan Johnston's horrible K-problem in Mesa is the only guy who looked bad in early results, but Cubs were pretty positive about him after fall instrux.

 

Of course, the good early feeling from the 2005 draft should be kind of expected. It was a very pitching heavy draft (Johnston was the only high-round player taken; not surprisingly he's the only guy who looked overmatched).

 

Unless pitchers show up with bad arms (as often happens, see Clanton and Brownlie...), I usually trust their arms and they usually start out pretty fast (See Blasko, Hagerty, Jones, Petrick...). Usually it takes longer to evaluate a pitcher-rich draft, simply because it takes time to find out how many will get weeded out by injury.

 

Also, 2005 draft looks good because we had all of our picks plus one extra 3rd rounder for Clement. In the three surrounding years, we've always been short. (Johnson, no 1st rounder.) Harvey draft, no 2nd rounder. Upcoming draft, no 2nd, 3rd, or 4th rounder. Given that the Cubs are normally drafting short-handed, it's tougheer for them to keep up with other organizatons that have full drafts or have extra picks.

 

But until some of the 2005 pitchers start requiring surgery, I'm very, very optimisitc about the 2005 draft.