Slap Nasty pimps for Walker

[goonys evil twin]

Given those things, I don't think a guys HBP numbers can be somewhat predictive if the guy has been in the league for awhile. I don't think it's totally flukish.

 

Do you mean you do think a guy's HBP numbers can be somewhat predicitive?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I thought Hairston was a decent OBP guy who knew how to take pitches? I, like most, prefer Walker, but I don't think Hairston would be the worst thing to ever happen.

 

I'd be interested to see if Hairston's OBP last season was inflated by his HBPs. He'd definitely be a better option than Neifi.

 

                   AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS
Hairston          380   51   98   24    2    4  138   30   31   46  0.258  0.332  0.363  0.695

 

If you subtract out Hairston's 11 HBP's, that OBP drops to .314.

 

what if he's just good at getting hbp? a walk is a walk. should people count that against guys like Bonds or Biggio too?

 

I second that. On Base Percentage is not a statistic looking forward, it's a statistic that looks at what you've done. It doesn't matter if getting hit by a pitch is a skill. All that matters is that you were hit by the pitch and that you got on base. Getting rid of HBP from on base percentage would be like taking triples out of batting average because triples are fluky, lucky hits that don't happen often.

 

If Hairston had gotten hit 30 times, then it would be a valid point in projecting what he could do going forward. The hitter has much less control over a HBP than hitting a triple, or even drawing a walk. If a guy has a high number of HBP, then it's a logical and worthwhile point to see if it's flukish.

 

Is it that much more flukish than BABIP? Couldn't that fluctuate just as much if not more than getting HBP? Doesn't it seem like the same guys always seem to be getting HBP? It may not necessarily a skill but it seems like it would be a result of an approach to hitting. If a player is not likely to change his approach to hitting shouldn't his HBP remain relatively constant?

 

That's the point I was making. Hairston has some ability to get hit, and since he didn't get hit a ginormous amount of times, it was consistent with the rest of his career. Had he gotten hit 30 times, that would be much more flukish, and his regression back to the norm would have much more impact on his OBP.

[Jehrico]

Given those things, I don't think a guys HBP numbers can be somewhat predictive if the guy has been in the league for awhile. I don't think it's totally flukish.

 

Do you mean you do think a guy's HBP numbers can be somewhat predicitive?

 

Somewhat, although I would concede it's less predictive than most other facets of the game. One pitch can turn that around for a guy too. If a guy gets a good one in the head, he may be more willing to get out of the way in the future, if you know what I mean. If a guy gets a doctor to authorize him to wear body armor (like Baroids), then he may become more inclined to stick that elbow out there and take one.

[bmkhawk]

Of course HBP numbers can be somewhat predictive.

 

Look at what Biggio did year in and year out as far as getting hit by pitches went.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Of course HBP numbers can be somewhat predictive.

 

Look at what Biggio did year in and year out as far as getting hit by pitches went.

 

Yeah, I think some players have some innate "ability" to get hit. Biggio because he wears Terminator's elbow as protection. In Hairston's case, he wears an elbow guard and doesn't shy away from the plate, and his movement in his stance may cause more pitchers to be momentarily distracted and hit him. IIRC he also has his front foot closer to the plate than his back foot, which increases the likelihood of him being hit through proximity or optical illusion to the pitcher. I don't think it holds true with all players, but Hairston's had a long enough career that I think we can attribute that to him.