Pick a player

[Jake]

Chris Duffy

Our starting center fielder, lead off batter is hardly underutilized.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

With all the Pirates being listed, you'd think they actually had a decent team. :P

[goonys evil twin]

With all the Pirates being listed, you'd think they actually had a decent team. :P

 

They're mediocrity must just be highly underappreciated.

[indifferent]

With all the Pirates being listed, you'd think they actually had a decent team. :P

 

They're mediocrity must just be highly underappreciated.

 

I think I saw one Card on the list, I guess they're highly overappreciated. Marquis' been mentioned in a lot of trade rumors, but I'd have to say rightfully so.

[ManCrushOnNomar]

Does Zach Duke count?

 

If so definitely him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Chris Duffy

Our starting center fielder, lead off batter is hardly underutilized.

 

The Cubs played Walker at 2B last year, and hit him near the top of the order, yet he appears on the list because the organization doesn't value him. Murton made a Cards fan's list and he's our starting LF.

[Jake]

So, basically what I'm saying here, is Kip has done more in the majors than Ollie, yet no one here has mentioned him.

 

My understanding is that Kip Wells has never been a young lefty with Randy Johnson stuff and ridiculous strikeout numbers, and probably never will be.

Really, not the point.

 

Furthermore, my understanding is that Kip Wells has never even be genuinely good for a middle aged right handed pitcher with plus stuff. Even in 2003, his Fielding Independent ERA: 4.44. His career ERA: 4.36.

What is a fielding independant ERA? I'm not familiar with that one. And, his career ERA is lower than Ollie's.

 

So when Kip Wells learns how to get hitters to only hit .259 off him (2003) when they put the ball in play, as opposed to his perfectly normal .299 career mark, which is what made the difference for him that year, then maybe he's worth paying attention to.

 

Until then, or until he gets lucky again, or until he becomes that young lefty with Randy Johnson stuff and so on, not so much.

No, it's once he lears to harness his fastball. By his own admission, he doesn't know where it's going 1/2 the time. But, that's not really the point. While one can't take away last year, take away the year before when he was hurt. He's a pretty damn good pitcher. He's not a Randy Johnson type pitcher (There seems to be only two of them, only one of them seems destined for the hall of fame.)

 

But, this still belies (sp?) my point. Ollie has only had one really good year. Yes, his upside is higher than Kips today. Yet, Kip has had more success. And, on a decent team, I'd suspect he'd have even more success. Which, we'll know for sure comes 2007.

[Jake]

Chris Duffy

Our starting center fielder, lead off batter is hardly underutilized.

 

The Cubs played Walker at 2B last year, and hit him near the top of the order, yet he appears on the list because the organization doesn't value him. Murton made a Cards fan's list and he's our starting LF.

Suffice it to say we value him rather highly right now.

[Diffusion]

So, basically what I'm saying here, is Kip has done more in the majors than Ollie, yet no one here has mentioned him.

 

My understanding is that Kip Wells has never been a young lefty with Randy Johnson stuff and ridiculous strikeout numbers, and probably never will be.

Really, not the point.

 

Of course it's the point. Do you think if Perez was an old right-hander with rubbish stuff and a low strikeout rate that anyone would be at all excited about him? No, of course they wouldn't. Luckily for Perez, and luckily for the Pirates, he's the exact opposite of all of those things. And that's why he's thought of so highly, and rightly so. Kip Wells though isn't any of those things though, and that's why he gets overlooked.

 

Furthermore, my understanding is that Kip Wells has never even be genuinely good for a middle aged right handed pitcher with plus stuff. Even in 2003, his Fielding Independent ERA: 4.44. His career ERA: 4.36.

What is a fielding independant ERA? I'm not familiar with that one.

 

Fielding Independent ERA approximates what you'd expect a pitcher's ERA to be based on the peripheral numbers of home runs allowed, walks allowed and strikeouts racked up. In my experience, for pitchers with a decent number of innings thrown, any kind of stuff and a reasonably neutral ballpark, it's disturbingly accurate after groundball, flyball, line-drive etc. tendencies are separately considered. As such, it gives you a more accurate picture of a pitcher's true ability at any moment in time than anything else out there, and is about as good a statistical predictive tool as there is out there, certainly far better than just ERA, or W/L, or any other metric you'll find the mainstream media mention.

 

Want to see how disturbingly accurate it is? Kip Wells has a career 4.36 ERA and a career 4.57 FIPS ERA, which means that his ERA is right where you'd expect it to have been considering his big peripheral numbers and his nicely above average career 1.49 GB/FB ratio.

 

And, his career ERA is lower than Ollie's.

 

For what it's worth, which isn't much, that's not true...

 

4.26 ERA - O.Perez

4.36 ERA - Wells

 

So when Kip Wells learns how to get hitters to only hit .259 off him (2003) when they put the ball in play, as opposed to his perfectly normal .299 career mark, which is what made the difference for him that year, then maybe he's worth paying attention to.

 

Until then, or until he gets lucky again, or until he becomes that young lefty with Randy Johnson stuff and so on, not so much.

No, it's once he lears to harness his fastball. By his own admission, he doesn't know where it's going 1/2 the time.

 

Fair enough, but that was all thrown in under the "and so on" comment. Point is, there's absolutely no reason to believe that the same Kip Wells we've seen over the last few years is a particularly good pitcher, just a lucky one as far as 2003 goes. So, we'll need to see a different Kip Wells before anyone should acclaim him as being any good. He certainly has potential to make that kind of change though, because he's got good stuff. But he's not exactly a spring chicken anymore and just having good stuff isn't any guarantee that it'll eventually happen for you.

 

But, that's not really the point. While one can't take away last year, take away the year before when he was hurt. He's a pretty damn good pitcher.

 

In that case, let's just take away Kerry Wood's last two years and declare him still the best pitcher in all of baseball. But that's one thing that Kerry Wood isn't right now, and if there's one thing Kip Wells isn't right now either it's a "pretty damn good pitcher". In this case at least, like most cases, you can't justify throwing out two years of a pitcher's career, especially the last two, especially when the pitcher's not particularly young, and then make hyperbolic statements about their ability. It'd be no fairer for me to throw out 2002 and 2003 and declare Kip Wells a career 4.98 ERA pitcher. Truth is, Wells hasn't been that bad, but he's not been that good either, and the truth lies somewhere in. Somewhere around his career ERA even.

 

 

Perez is a different beast. Everyone knows the story about last year: told not to throw over the off-season, literally doesn't do any throwing, reports in the Spring with his arm completely out of shape, spends months playing catchup trying to regain the velocity of his fastball and the bite on his slider, frustratingly slow progress, takes it out on a laundry cart, season over. So what he's only had one really good year? He's 24. He's not been in the big leagues long. His minor league record prior to getting called up (as in I'm not counting an 10 inning spell in Triple-A last year) was impeccable, with a 2.86 ERA over 258 innings in which he struck out 307, walked 107 and allowed 213 hits, always very young for his league. He has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in the majors. Really the only concern is his mechanics, and how that relates to his control and his chances of injury. Little else stands in his way except for, perhaps, the psychological and whether or not he responds the right way to 2005. All the reports about how he's been going about things this offseason is encouraging in that regard. I'm extremely bullish on the guy.

 

And really the reason isn't just 2004. Judging Perez by the same metrics as Kip Wells, to be fair, Perez' FIPS ERA in 2004 was 3.46, a half-run higher than his actual ERA, and Perez is a pretty extreme flyball pitcher, which means that not only is it likely that he'll continue to give up 20 home runs per full season, but that by rights his FIPS should undershoot. His 2004 in that context wasn't great. But it was very encouraging for a 22-year old with the package that Perez has. A high strikeout rate is the best indicator of a pitcher that will stick around for a long time and have a successful career, and Oliver Perez, psychology and injury allowing, will.

[Jake]

His minor league record prior to getting called up (as in I'm not counting an 10 inning spell in Triple-A last year) was impeccable, with a 2.86 ERA over 258 innings in which he struck out 307, walked 107 and allowed 213 hits, always very young for his league. He has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in the majors.

Here's the thing though. However good his minor league record was, and however fast his fastball was, he was NOT looking like a major league pitcher. He needed to learn how to get major league hitters out, which he couldn't do. He had the stuff to get past guys who weren't going to make it.

 

That's one of the reasons he was even brought north in 2004. There was a quote by McClendon about how he knew how to get out minor leageu hitters, but the only way he'll learn about the Majors is to pitch up here. Something of an admission that he didn't make the team but they were taking him north anyway.

 

And, last year, it wasn't just that he was out of shape, although that certainly accounts for at least 80% of the problem. He lapsed into his old form, his old problems, his old mistakes. Patterns that will get you a .286 ERA in the minors but will get you pummelled in the majors.

 

Sorry, but I'm not entirely sold yet on Ollie. On a team that loses 95 games, it's hard to call someone untouchable. Zach Duke is our most untouchable, with Bay second. Ollie is third. No way I'd trade him unless I'm overwhelmed. But, I don't offer him an extended contract like Jason Bay received.

 

Oh, Kip Wells goes for the first decent offer. Too many good pitchers waiting in the wings. But, I still think he's going to be a very good major league pitcher. And, at 29, he should have 5 more good years at least.

[Diffusion]

His minor league record prior to getting called up (as in I'm not counting an 10 inning spell in Triple-A last year) was impeccable, with a 2.86 ERA over 258 innings in which he struck out 307, walked 107 and allowed 213 hits, always very young for his league. He has the stuff to be one of the best pitchers in the majors.

Here's the thing though. However good his minor league record was, and however fast his fastball was, he was NOT looking like a major league pitcher. He needed to learn how to get major league hitters out, which he couldn't do. He had the stuff to get past guys who weren't going to make it.

 

He looked like a major league pitcher in 2004, and he was getting major league hitters out, so he clearly could do it, with the stuff to get past guys who had already made it. You're ludicrously talking about Oliver Perez as though he's never experienced success at the major league level, as though 2004 had never happened.

 

There was a quote by McClendon about how he knew how to get out minor league hitters, but the only way he'll learn about the Majors is to pitch up here.

 

That's true for absolutely every minor league player though, that no matter how much success they have in the minors, it's only through actually playing in the majors that they'll ever stand a chance at learning to master the top level. It's a tautology. Luckily for Oliver Perez, he made the transition well, went a long way to mastering things in 2004. The upside is there and it's tangible, because he's gotten close to it once already and he's still only 24.

 

And, last year, it wasn't just that he was out of shape, although that certainly accounts for at least 80% of the problem. He lapsed into his old form, his old problems, his old mistakes. Patterns that will get you a 2.86 ERA in the minors but will get you pummelled in the majors.

 

I really don't know what you're on about. Last year he didn't even have the same kind of stuff to make the same mistakes as when he was a young, inexperienced pitcher without a clue as to how to harness this superlative stuff. He was adapting to pitching with a lot less velocity and with a lot less effective a slider, battling terrible control/release point problems, most of which was to do with his arm being out of shape through his own fault. That doesn't reflect well on him, but how you can compare the way he performed last year to the way he performed before breaking out in 2004 I really don't know. Completely different pitcher, completely different circumstances. Certainly, the end results in terms of the numbers were somewhat similar, but all that tells you is the limitations of statistical analysis.

 

No way I'd trade him unless I'm overwhelmed. But, I don't offer him an extended contract like Jason Bay received.

 

You don't need to offer him an extended contract though. Indeed, what with the question marks over whether his mechanics hold up probably means that it's not necessary a move you should make even if 2005 had never happened. The new questions as to whether or not he'll recover from his biggest psychological blow to date throw another spanner in the mix, and they probably mean that Perez wouldn't be willing to settle for a contract extension now even if you wanted to sign him to one. From his perspective, not a great idea to sign a deal when his value's in the troughs.