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Batting Average on Balls In Play (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)

 

EDIT: From an article from last April that approaches BABIP from the pitcher's perspective...

 

One of the oddest discoveries of the recent baseball statistics revolution came from a man with the unlikely name of Voros McCracken. While attempting to figure out how much of a pitcher's performance should really be credited to his team's defense, McCracken (now a Boston Red Sox consultant) made a startling discovery: If you take out strikeouts, walks, and home runs - in other words, look only at fair balls hit in play - the number of hits that pitchers give up is virtually random from year to year, whether you're talking about Greg Maddux or Todd Van Poppel.

 

McCracken concluded that most of what separates an elite pitcher from a waiver-wire candidate is strikeouts, walks, and home runs - the holy trinity known to stats analysts as a pitcher's "peripheral" stats. But as far as whether balls hit in play land in a glove or find a gap, for pitchers good enough to pitch in the bigs, it's a matter left to his fielders, his ballpark, and to a large extent, plain old luck.

 

The corollary is that pitchers who had bad years thanks largely to a high batting average in balls in play, or BABIP, were just "hit-unlucky"; these poor saps can often be expected to bounce back. Pitchers who excelled thanks to low BABIPs, meanwhile, were presumably benefiting from lots of balls hit at fielders; all else being equal, they should fall victim to the law of averages.

Posted
Batting Average on Balls In Play (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)

 

EDIT: From an article from last April that approaches BABIP from the pitcher's perspective...

 

One of the oddest discoveries of the recent baseball statistics revolution came from a man with the unlikely name of Voros McCracken. While attempting to figure out how much of a pitcher's performance should really be credited to his team's defense, McCracken (now a Boston Red Sox consultant) made a startling discovery: If you take out strikeouts, walks, and home runs - in other words, look only at fair balls hit in play - the number of hits that pitchers give up is virtually random from year to year, whether you're talking about Greg Maddux or Todd Van Poppel.

 

McCracken concluded that most of what separates an elite pitcher from a waiver-wire candidate is strikeouts, walks, and home runs - the holy trinity known to stats analysts as a pitcher's "peripheral" stats. But as far as whether balls hit in play land in a glove or find a gap, for pitchers good enough to pitch in the bigs, it's a matter left to his fielders, his ballpark, and to a large extent, plain old luck.

 

The corollary is that pitchers who had bad years thanks largely to a high batting average in balls in play, or BABIP, were just "hit-unlucky"; these poor saps can often be expected to bounce back. Pitchers who excelled thanks to low BABIPs, meanwhile, were presumably benefiting from lots of balls hit at fielders; all else being equal, they should fall victim to the law of averages.

 

Thanks, that made very little sense without the edit.

Posted
Batting Average on Balls In Play (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR)

 

EDIT: From an article from last April that approaches BABIP from the pitcher's perspective...

 

One of the oddest discoveries of the recent baseball statistics revolution came from a man with the unlikely name of Voros McCracken. While attempting to figure out how much of a pitcher's performance should really be credited to his team's defense, McCracken (now a Boston Red Sox consultant) made a startling discovery: If you take out strikeouts, walks, and home runs - in other words, look only at fair balls hit in play - the number of hits that pitchers give up is virtually random from year to year, whether you're talking about Greg Maddux or Todd Van Poppel.

 

McCracken concluded that most of what separates an elite pitcher from a waiver-wire candidate is strikeouts, walks, and home runs - the holy trinity known to stats analysts as a pitcher's "peripheral" stats. But as far as whether balls hit in play land in a glove or find a gap, for pitchers good enough to pitch in the bigs, it's a matter left to his fielders, his ballpark, and to a large extent, plain old luck.

 

The corollary is that pitchers who had bad years thanks largely to a high batting average in balls in play, or BABIP, were just "hit-unlucky"; these poor saps can often be expected to bounce back. Pitchers who excelled thanks to low BABIPs, meanwhile, were presumably benefiting from lots of balls hit at fielders; all else being equal, they should fall victim to the law of averages.

Thanks for that, TT.

 

There is a lot of data that supports the notion of just how often luck comes into play in baseball. That's what makes teams like the Braves who have been able to win consistently over a lot of years so amazing to me.

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