is phil rodgers nuts?

[goonys evil twin]

1) Tejada is not past his prime. He's not even 30 yet, and a player's "prime" generally begins in hhis late twenties and lasts until 33 or 34.

 

Wrong, especially for middle infielders.

 

Peak is 27. There is some variance in either direction, maybe 26 or 28 here and there. Regardless, Tejada has peaked, and will be getting worse in his 30's. He'll still be good, but not as good as he was before.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

if this is true the cubs are insane. guzman cant even stay healthy through a season of minor leauge ball and they expect him to be able to start in the majors? at least see how healthy he is the 1st half of the year before bringing him up.

 

I realize this is a big IF, but if Guzman is healthy, I want him starting over Rusch. His stuff is amazing. I have no issues with letting him develop in the bigs. The upside is HUGE.

 

so is the risk to his health. what is the most innings he has pitched in a season in the minors? if he is healthy he has got to build up his endurance in the minors imo or he will just end up getting hurt again.

 

The most IP for him was 94 at Daytona in '02 and 89+ at West Tenn in '03 (15 starts each). That's what rehab, winter ball, and ST are all about for him right now -- the endurance. And like I said, this is all a big if.

[RynoRules]

1) Tejada is not past his prime. He's not even 30 yet, and a player's "prime" generally begins in hhis late twenties and lasts until 33 or 34.

 

Wrong, especially for middle infielders.

 

Peak is 27. There is some variance in either direction, maybe 26 or 28 here and there. Regardless, Tejada has peaked, and will be getting worse in his 30's. He'll still be good, but not as good as he was before.

 

I completely diagree with that assessment, especially since athletes take much better care of themselves than they have in years past. I would bet that MIFers in the upper echelon (such as Jeter and Kent, and historically, Ryno and Ozzie Smith, as examples) either maintained or increased their production as they entered their thirties (i.e., 30-34).

 

Point is that Tejada cannot be judged against the statiscal trends of the Neifi Perezs of the world. he's head-and-shoulders above that level, and if he has 4 or 5 more seasons like the last few, is highley likely to be an HOFer.

[RynoRules]

First of all SS right now is not necessarily a need. We have Cedeno who at the very least can play good defense there. If anything, it is best to look for a RF which is our biggest hole right now. Giving up Z or Prior for Tejada would be asinine.

 

I disagree with your hyperbolic assesment of the situation, but agree that it is an arguable point, especially in light of the gaping hole in RF.

[YearofDaCubs]

First of all SS right now is not necessarily a need. We have Cedeno who at the very least can play good defense there. If anything, it is best to look for a RF which is our biggest hole right now. Giving up Z or Prior for Tejada would be asinine.

 

I disagree with your hyperbolic assesment of the situation, but agree that it is an arguable point, especially in light of the gaping hole in RF.

Hyperbolic assesment? Please. Starting pitchers that can give you a mid 2 era do not grow on trees. Tejadas power can be had from a corner OFer. Also consider the age difference and it's not hyperbolic at all.

[ZMovieman]

Only two guys I'd consider getting rid of Prior or Z for are Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. That's it. No one else.

[goonys evil twin]

1) Tejada is not past his prime. He's not even 30 yet, and a player's "prime" generally begins in hhis late twenties and lasts until 33 or 34.

 

Wrong, especially for middle infielders.

 

Peak is 27. There is some variance in either direction, maybe 26 or 28 here and there. Regardless, Tejada has peaked, and will be getting worse in his 30's. He'll still be good, but not as good as he was before.

 

I completely diagree with that assessment, especially since athletes take much better care of themselves than they have in years past. I would bet that MIFers in the upper echelon (such as Jeter and Kent, and historically, Ryno and Ozzie Smith, as examples) either maintained or increased their production as they entered their thirties (i.e., 30-34).

 

Point is that Tejada cannot be judged against the statiscal trends of the Neifi Perezs of the world. he's head-and-shoulders above that level, and if he has 4 or 5 more seasons like the last few, is highley likely to be an HOFer.

 

Disagree all you want, it's been proven time and time again. The rare exceptions, Bonds, only prove the rule. Tejada has already peaked, he's not going to get any better, and he will start to decline in his early 30s. Zambrano hasn't approached his peak.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Zambrano hasn't approached his peak.

 

How scary of a thought is that?

[RynoRules]

1) Tejada is not past his prime. He's not even 30 yet, and a player's "prime" generally begins in hhis late twenties and lasts until 33 or 34.

 

Wrong, especially for middle infielders.

 

Peak is 27. There is some variance in either direction, maybe 26 or 28 here and there. Regardless, Tejada has peaked, and will be getting worse in his 30's. He'll still be good, but not as good as he was before.

 

I completely diagree with that assessment, especially since athletes take much better care of themselves than they have in years past. I would bet that MIFers in the upper echelon (such as Jeter and Kent, and historically, Ryno and Ozzie Smith, as examples) either maintained or increased their production as they entered their thirties (i.e., 30-34).

 

Point is that Tejada cannot be judged against the statiscal trends of the Neifi Perezs of the world. he's head-and-shoulders above that level, and if he has 4 or 5 more seasons like the last few, is highley likely to be an HOFer.

 

Disagree all you want, it's been proven time and time again. The rare exceptions, Bonds, only prove the rule. Tejada has already peaked, he's not going to get any better, and he will start to decline in his early 30s. Zambrano hasn't approached his peak.

 

Then how do you explain the continued production of the players I cited above? Ryno, for instance, showed a major increase in his power nos. after age 30. I think you might becorrect about MIFers who are middling or worse, but guys like Tejada who are the class of their position do not typically dropp off until later.

[Andy]

Z for Tejada/Gibbons/Bedard/Cabrera then maybe we can start talking. Z PLUS other people for Tejada? Give me a break.

 

Zambrano hasn't approached his peak.

 

How scary of a thought is that?

 

That thought keeps me hopeful of the Cubs' future. Prior/Z could be a fantastic tandem for the next decade-plus if the Cubs organization doesn't screw it up.

[goonys evil twin]

Then how do you explain the continued production of the players I cited above? Ryno, for instance, showed a major increase in his power nos. after age 30. I think you might becorrect about MIFers who are middling or worse, but guys like Tejada who are the class of their position do not typically dropp off until later.

 

Power is one part of their game. Sandberg was at his best overall in the mid 80's, when he was in his mid 20's. His peak SLG was at age 30, but it's not like he didn't have power before. He had a resurgent year in the early 90's I believe, when he was 30. And while power increased, other parts of his game declined in his early 30's, like speed and defense. That's why it hurts MI more. 1B can stand there and not be hurt by a decline in speed. But a 32 year old SS can't do what he did at 26. I'm not saying a 32 year old SS can't have a career year. It happens now and then. But the point is the average player, star or not, hits his peak performance from 26-28, levels off then declines. By the way, Jeter has declined from his peak, which was probably earlier than most people. ARod, both younger and better than Jeter, probalby hit his peak at 24 and is still right around there at 29, but he has slowed a bit, and probably can't field at SS like he used to. Nomar started his decline in his late 20's. We're talking about guys at the elite status. They still stay very good as they start to decline, but they do decline. Ripkin was a bit of an up and down guy, after seemingly peaking in his early 20's, he had a couple of less than stellar seasons at 26 and 28 (surrounding a good year 27 season). But he "repeaked" at 30, and quickly fell off from there. Of course you can also look at Ernie Banks, who was fabulous from 25-29, still really good at 30, but then much less special every year after. Renteria, really good at 26, peaked at 27, hasn't come close to that since.

 

Kent is a rare breed. He wasn't great in his mid 20s, he had his peak years in his early 30's, which is rare. Because it is so rare I wouldn't go after guys expecting it to happen. Kent is also a crappy defensive 2B and should be playing 1B, where his hitting is less of a novelty and more expected.

 

Tejada will start to decline, soon. But he is elite and will still be very good for a few years. And I'd love to have him on my team. But not if it means trading a great pitcher who hasn't approached his peak, when pitching is also a concern on this team. Although I'm not as familar with the numbers, I believe pitchers' peaks are usually a little later than hitters, somewhere around 29.

Edited December 12, 2005 by goony's evil twin

[jjgman21]

I think any discussion about predictions of the durability of Tejada must include the fact that he insists on playing in the Carribean WS every year. the guy doesn't take any time off from baseball and that additional wear and tear will hasten his decline, IMO.

[back2backjax]

guys, i disagree with you about rogers; i think he makes a good point. having tejada in the lineup for 162 games per season is going to lead to more wins than having Z start 30 games. besides, he doesn't say trade Z straight up for tejada. he advocates trading Z, cedeno, cpatt for tejada and cabrera then signing a FA pitcher like millwood or washburn. keep in mind millwood led the AL in ERA last year. which difference is greater, Z to millwood or cedeno to tejada?

 

you're also acting like Z is clemens. keep in mind his ERA was 3.26 last year. even if his replacement in the rotation (hill, millwood, cabrera, rusch, jwill) has an ERA of 4.00 in 2006, the upgrade in offense of tejada from neifi last season would more than make up for it.

 

all of you on this board saying the cubs should unload the farm system for tejada are the ones on crack. we just let go of 3 pitchers for pierre and you're saying let's trade 3 or 4 more for tejada? you'll be the same ones on here in 2 years complaining because one of those guys is lighting it up for another team (a la dontrelle).

[goonys evil twin]

all of you on this board saying the cubs should unload the farm system for tejada are the ones on crack. we just let go of 3 pitchers for pierre and you're saying let's trade 3 or 4 more for tejada? you'll be the same ones on here in 2 years complaining because one of those guys is lighting it up for another team (a la dontrelle).

 

The difference is Dontrelle was traded for Alfonseca (who sucked) and Clement (who Florida was dumping in a salary move and who never was that good for the Cubs). I'd gladly acquire Tejada if it meant giving up a guy who might have the success of Willis in a couple years.

 

Zambrano is just as young, or younger than some of the possible pitchers the Cubs will trade (Guzman, Hill) and much more accomplished. He hasn't hit his peak yet. We're not trading 2005 Zambrano for 2005 Tejada, (which by the way, I would argue wouldn't have made the Cubs any better), and all these theoretical free agent pitchers are all significantly worse than Zambrano, and signficantly more expensive. The Cubs don't have anybody who comes close to Zambrano's quality in their system right now. Trade him and Cedeno for Tejada, then sign a free agent pitcher. You now have no money left over, and still no RF. Trade Walker for a mediocre RF, and you now have Neifi starting everyday at 2B, a weakened pitching staff, and no financial resources to fix the problems that will arise.

[WrigleyinEngland]

gooney i agree with all you said except clement. He did an excellant job in the rotation when prior and wood were hurt he held us togethter and received little or no help from our pathetic offence.

[goonys evil twin]

gooney i agree with all you said except clement. He did an excellant job in the rotation when prior and wood were hurt he held us togethter and received little or no help from our pathetic offence.

 

He was well liked by the fans, had a brief moment stretch of time when he was pretty good and had bad luck, but he was no more than a 3rd starter, and a terribly unreliable 3rd starter at that. Basically, he doesn't compare to Tejada, which negates the downside of trading away a future star.

[da bears]

Pitching wins, meaning trading Z would be stupid. As a previously mentioned, I only trade Big Z or Prior for Pujols or Cabrera. I'm especially not trading one of our pitchers for someone who is at least 5 years older than them. I Hendry does trade one of them for Tejada, he should be immediately fired.

[BleedCubbieBlue81]

Only two guys I'd consider getting rid of Prior or Z for are Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. That's it. No one else.

Amen.

 

guys, i disagree with you about rogers; i think he makes a good point. having tejada in the lineup for 162 games per season is going to lead to more wins than having Z start 30 games.

I couldn't disagree with you more. Tejada's an above average hitter, but how many above average hitters are on teams with average pitching, and are consistently sitting in the back of the pack. Sure we have Lee and Ramirez, but I'd take the pitching over Tejada right now. Ramirez is an injury risk, and Lee has had one amazing season. As much flack as I might take for this, we still must consider the possibility that last year was a fluke. (I hope to God it wasn't). Now look at the White Sox. They won the World Series with their pitching. Their offense was alright, but not that great.

 

Zambrano is all of 23/24 years old (I think just 23). He's already proven he's a top tier starter, and he's the only guy we can count on besides Maddux to hit the mound every 5th game.