Tampa Bay Interested In & "Doing Homework" on Marcus Stroman

12 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

It's becoming rapidly apparent that the Cubs have two of the hottest commodities on the trade deadline market in Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger, especially with the Angels gaining new life and sweeping the Yankees, returning to the fringes of the American League Wild Card race.

During an episode of the Onto Waveland Podcast (29 minute mark), it is mentioned that while the Rays do not appear to be interested in Cody Bellinger, they are interested in acquiring Stroman.

The Rays are floundering a bit lately, losing their season-long hold on first place in the American League East. They need starting pitching and have a farm system that is miles-deep in typical Rays fashion.

 

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Pretty safe to say Mead, Bradley and Caminero are very unlikely to be available. Manzardo is the guy I think I'd insist on. He's more hit tool than pop, even so, he's still likely a 20, maybe even 25 HR guy. The Cubs probably have to sweeten the deal a bit, but he fills a hole and the timeline. 

Man, I just posted how the Rays are a great Stroman match; they have SP depth issues, and a great infield defensively.  Someone hire me for the front office in Tampa Bay...

Okay, enough, of that.  I'll say, I think Curtis Mead is possibly in play here.  I think it's your high-end win in a trade, requires the Cubs to eat Stroman's contract, but I think he's in play with the market, where the Rays are, the fit with Stroman, and the kind of good, but not great season Mead has had.  I agree, Caminero and Bradley are off the table, but I think with the real season Caminero is having, with Paredes at 3b...I think Mead is in a weird space between the two.   He's blocked in LF with Arozarena, they have Ramirez at DH (sometimes Yandy).   Maybe I'm just hopeful, though.  

(If Mead is on the table, he's easily my favorite return the Cubs could get.  This includes Baltimore) 

I'm still skeptical that even in a seller's market that a prospect like Mead is in play for Stroman.  The Rays would potentially be a team that might be willing to take on a prospect with a Stroman in the right deal to make value align though.  Given their farm system depth it would have to be something far from the 40 man/Rule 5 line though, so my preferred guys in this space(Alcantara, maybe Herz) wouldn't be fits.

For me, the Rays play* is Aranda.  He's a good quality prospect but has had enough initial failure to cast doubt, and he doesn't have a clear path to a role  I think you throw him and Mervis at 1B/DH for the rest of the year you have pretty good odds of feeling confident you have one of those spots covered well in 2024 heading into the offseason.

*I'd also check to make sure they aren't completely soured on Baz, but that's likely wishful thinking.

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm still skeptical that even in a seller's market that a prospect like Mead is in play for Stroman.  The Rays would potentially be a team that might be willing to take on a prospect with a Stroman in the right deal to make value align though.  Given their farm system depth it would have to be something far from the 40 man/Rule 5 line though, so my preferred guys in this space(Alcantara, maybe Herz) wouldn't be fits.

For me, the Rays play* is Aranda.  He's a good quality prospect but has had enough initial failure to cast doubt, and he doesn't have a clear path to a role  I think you throw him and Mervis at 1B/DH for the rest of the year you have pretty good odds of feeling confident you have one of those spots covered well in 2024 heading into the offseason.

 

*I'd also check to make sure they aren't completely soured on Baz, but that's likely wishful thinking.

I waffle on how I feel about Mead's availability there.  I think I settle on the "I think it's wishful thinking, but it's not entirely unrealistic" as of today.  Like I said, I think there's reasons to believe he could  be available.  And I wouldn't be shocked to see the Cubs send something back...I think a Daniel Palencia could make sense here, possibly a Merryweather (due to control, despite being 32) as well ...the Rays love them some BP arms and it's hard to tell sometimes just what they will value in these situations.  

Aranda is fun, but I think the Cubs would need something else pretty enticing to go along with him.  He's kind of sitting in the same category as Matt Mervis right now, dominated AAA but no success in limited MLB time.  As a 1b as well, the path to MLB relevancy is so narrow.  I would think the Cubs can do better than a 1-1 Stroman/Aaranda swap on the market.

33 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I would think the Cubs can do better than a 1-1 Stroman/Aaranda swap on the market.

I'm not certain this is true, Fangraphs put a 50 on Aranda if he were still eligible and that's about the peak I can imagine getting for Stroman, but even setting that aside I think it's closer when you consider roster fit and availability.  With corner OF and middle IF spoken for, plus Morel and Amaya clouding things further, it's harder than it was a year ago to plug and play a prospect.  And on the availability side, you have folks like Bowden already saying that basically the Orioles Top 10 is off limits, a couple teams who are excellent matches for Stroman but have very little quality/roster fit to offer(Philadelphia, Arizona), and the range of good matches to help them in the short and long term dwindle a fair amount.

24 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm not certain this is true, Fangraphs put a 50 on Aranda if he were still eligible and that's about the peak I can imagine getting for Stroman, but even setting that aside I think it's closer when you consider roster fit and availability.  With corner OF and middle IF spoken for, plus Morel and Amaya clouding things further, it's harder than it was a year ago to plug and play a prospect.  And on the availability side, you have folks like Bowden already saying that basically the Orioles Top 10 is off limits, a couple teams who are excellent matches for Stroman but have very little quality/roster fit to offer(Philadelphia, Arizona), and the range of good matches better fits to help them in the short and long term dwindle a fair amount.

If the Orioles aren't even willing to move guys like Basallo, Norby, Povich, etc. then they just aren't interested in acquiring anyone worth having, but have fun wasting those years of control for the guys they wont be able to pay later. 

22 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm not certain this is true, Fangraphs put a 50 on Aranda if he were still eligible and that's about the peak I can imagine getting for Stroman, but even setting that aside I think it's closer when you consider roster fit and availability.  With corner OF and middle IF spoken for, plus Morel and Amaya clouding things further, it's harder than it was a year ago to plug and play a prospect.  And on the availability side, you have folks like Bowden already saying that basically the Orioles Top 10 is off limits, a couple teams who are excellent matches for Stroman but have very little quality/roster fit to offer(Philadelphia, Arizona), and the range of good matches better fits to help them in the short and long term dwindle a fair amount.

I'm pretty hesitant to use FG rankings currently.  They get updated at random intervals and don't seem to follow any sort of rule set.  There was a time and a date FG rankings were my top, go to, but I'm not sure I'd put Aranda as a 50 FV myself.   That ranking is also from 2022, he's graduated off the prospect list.  I also would just flat out ignore Jim Bowden.  Jim Bowden is probably the worst "insider" in media today (did you see his "proposal" for the Cubs and Astros trade?  It read laughably like something I'd expect on an Astros fanboard).  His opinions are...out there.  And I rarely find myself in any sort of agreement with him.  

With the market we're looking at, I expect Stroman to actually bring back a very solid return.  More-so than other prospects.  The SP is pretty non-existent at the top tier; Ohtani is a unicorn, Snell might be available, then it's a drop off to Giolitio.  Teams like Baltimore (13th in xFIP), Tampa Bay (leading in xFIP but thin rotation after top-3), Arizona (23rd in xFIP), the Dodgers (15th in xFIP), Toronto (11th in xFIP), Texas (17th in xFIP)  will all, probably, be sniffing around the SP market.  Houston is reportedly interested.  There's a few teams like the Reds (26th), Yankees (20th), Milwaukee (19th) who could jump in there as well if they decide to go for it.  That's not to say all are specifically Stroman markets, but that the limited resource of good SP's just wont be enough for teams to all get something.  Bellinger is the player I expect to bring back a kind of...lacking return.  I think we'll be disappointed on the Bellinger return, but get a pretty darn solid return on Stroman.  

With Aranda for me it's "is he a 1b only type or do you believe he can play something else?"  As a 1b only...I'd need something else coming back.  Honestly, he profiles as a hitter with similar questions and wonders like Mervis.  He's someone who's dominated AAA every chance he's gotten there, and in a similar amount of PA's at the MLB level has questions on LA and questions on hitting MLB breaking balls.  These are common issues with MiLB talents first making their way to the MLB, but more concerning for players who have to hit.  I'm still on team "The Cubs shouldn't give up on Mervis" but I also think there's a bit of a difference on not giving up on someone, and them being the primary return in this kind of a trade.

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

If the Orioles aren't even willing to move guys like Basallo, Norby, Povich, etc. then they just aren't interested in acquiring anyone worth having, but have fun wasting those years of control for the guys they wont be able to pay later. 

This was the specific quote

Quote

5. Baltimore Orioles

Trade partner: St. Louis Cardinals
Target: LHP Jordan Montgomery

The Orioles are committed to trading for a starting pitcher at the deadline, but they’re also committed to not trading any of their top prospects, including Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Jordan Westburg, Heston Kjerstad, Joey Ortiz, Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo or even DL Hall. However, their farm system is so deep, a deal could still get done for a pitcher such as Montgomery, perhaps with a package of something like lefty Cade Povich and third baseman Max Wagner. Povich, 23, has an eye-popping 115 strikeouts in 76 1/3 innings this season in Double A, with a 4.83 ERA in 17 starts. Wagner, 21, has hit .240/.374/.409 with 10 doubles, nine homers and 23 stolen bases in 69 games in High A.

20 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm not certain this is true, Fangraphs put a 50 on Aranda if he were still eligible and that's about the peak I can imagine getting for Stroman, but even setting that aside I think it's closer when you consider roster fit and availability.  With corner OF and middle IF spoken for, plus Morel and Amaya clouding things further, it's harder than it was a year ago to plug and play a prospect.  And on the availability side, you have folks like Bowden already saying that basically the Orioles Top 10 is off limits, a couple teams who are excellent matches for Stroman but have very little quality/roster fit to offer(Philadelphia, Arizona), and the range of good matches better fits to help them in the short and long term dwindle a fair amount.

I hope Orioles fans are putting pressure on the front office and ownership because the way they’ve handled the past eight months is embarrassing. They have a rock bottom payroll, did basically nothing in the off-season, and now they’re saying their top ten is off limits?

Get out of here. 

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I hope Orioles fans are putting pressure on the front office and ownership because the way they’ve handled the past eight months is embarrassing. They have a rock bottom payroll, did basically nothing in the off-season, and now they’re saying their top ten is off limits?

Get out of here. 

The funny part is they have the fan support. They're ready to ride into the playoffs with what they have if they can't land upgrades for guys like Prieto. It's prospect hugging at a level not even we hit in 2015-2017.

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm pretty hesitant to use FG rankings currently.  They get updated at random intervals and don't seem to follow any sort of rule set.  There was a time and a date FG rankings were my top, go to, but I'm not sure I'd put Aranda as a 50 FV myself.   That ranking is also from 2022, he's graduated off the prospect list.  I also would just flat out ignore Jim Bowden.  Jim Bowden is probably the worst "insider" in media today (did you see his "proposal" for the Cubs and Astros trade?  It read laughably like something I'd expect on an Astros fanboard).  

I get the skepticism, and I'm not gonna put a hard sell on Aranda in particular.  I like FG better than the other options(Pipeline) that put grades on everyone, and it ties into the FG valuation stuff via fWAR well, so while it's far from infallible I like it as a first stop. FWIW all teams are currently updated, and the 50 on Aranda is from this year. And while I think Bowden's understanding of trade value is stuck in 1996, I think what he said there is representative of how teams have hoarded prospects in recent years, particularly for rentals.  I'd love to be wrong and someone like Mead or Mayo or in my deepest dreams Painter is accessible for Stroman, but after multiple years of finding that the rentals the Cubs had to sell simply didn't have the juice they would have had a decade ago, I've tried to be more measured for my own excitement's sake.

9 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I get the skepticism, and I'm not gonna put a hard sell on Aranda in particular.  I like FG better than the other options(Pipeline) that put grades on everyone, and it ties into the FG valuation stuff via fWAR well, so while it's far from infallible I like it as a first stop. FWIW all teams are currently updated, and the 50 on Aranda is from this year. A while I think Bowden's understanding of trade value is stuck in 1996, I think what he said there is representative of how teams have hoarded prospects in recent years, particularly for rentals.  I'd love to be wrong and someone like Mead or Mayo or in my deepest dreams Painter is accessible for Stroman, but after multiple years of finding that the rentals the Cubs had to sell simply didn't have the juice they would have had a decade ago, I've tried to be more measured for my own excitement's sake.

There are parts of Fangraphs I adore.  They're easily the best website for data, I find fWAR far superior to bWAR in almost every single way, they're adding OAA and RAA to their defensive stuff, they have ZiPS integrated and STEAMER.  I'm as much of a FG-stan you can find for that stuff.  For years they should have paid me for the advertising I've done at their behest (I kid).  But their prospect stuff has been...frankly, awful for about 2+ years now comparative to so many others.  Prospects Live, BA, and simply finding (insert team here)'s version of Smith/Zumach/Huss I find far more compelling lately.   I am speculating here, but FG feels like there's a financial crunch (how many times have they advertised for funding recently?) and it's hitting the scouting/prospect end first.  The Cubs top-50 list they put out was...IMO, about the worst list I've seen.  Not because they were mean to the system (it was pretty kind) but it just didn't make sense and was all over the place, as an example.  And this goes back to stuff I've noticed from 2021, where Logenhagen had super outdated information on guys like Caleb Killian post-TDL.  And it kills me because I really have liked Logehagen over the years so this isn't meant to be like, an anti-Eric thing, I think he's doing the best with what he has, but it feels like what he has is...less than needed.  

But to clarify, he mentions he's a 50, but there's been no recent update for 7 months other than a small throw away comment, and the FV on his page is from 2022.

/rant over.  Do forgive.

The prospect stuff has taken a very noticeable nose dive. Case and point, I'm as big a Triantos fan as there is on this website, but even I find it laughably stupid to have Triantos as the #2 prospect in the system, while Cade Horton is #7 and Matt Mervis is #46. 

27 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The funny part is they have the fan support. They're ready to ride into the playoffs with what they have if they can't land upgrades for guys like Prieto. It's prospect hugging at a level not even we hit in 2015-2017.

If they do that, I hope they're swept out of the first round.

6 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The prospect stuff has taken a very noticeable nose dive. Case and point, I'm as big a Triantos fan as there is on this website, but even I find it laughably stupid to have Triantos as the #2 prospect in the system, while Cade Horton is #7 and Matt Mervis is #46. 

I didn't realize they had Triantos second.

9 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

I didn't realize they had Triantos second.

I think the list was made, sometime, in late-May to very early June.  I'm just guessing, but that's right around when Triantos came back healthy, before Horton really took off at SB, PCA wasn't walking, and right when Mervis was really showing his struggles at the MLB level.  I then think the article sat for a month, ran threw editing, and then they post these things every few days too really stretch out the content.  It felt incredibly outdated right off the bat.  

Personally, it was a pretty bad list.  I wouldn't have had my list in anyway reflective of that.  I'll throw a personal list together for ya'll post TDL.  Everyone can feel free to ignore the horsefeathers out of it.  I mostly do it for me, but ya'll get to read it.

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Personally, it was a pretty bad list.  I wouldn't have had my list in anyway reflective of that.  I'll throw a personal list together for ya'll post TDL.  Everyone can feel free to ignore the horsefeathers out of it.  I mostly do it for me, but ya'll get to read it.

By the way, we have a really cool voting page here and our prospect list is community-voted. We'll be opening another round of voting shortly after the trade deadline so keep an eye out for it and be sure to participate.

Here is the thread from the last round of voting: 

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

By the way, we have a really cool voting page here and our prospect list is community-voted. We'll be opening another round of voting shortly after the trade deadline so keep an eye out for it and be sure to participate.

Here is the thread from the last round of voting: 

 

One of the first things I saw!  I'm big on the MiLB side of things; I threw together a quick, 1600 word prospect list for PSD pre-season ranking my top, like, 50 or so guys.  Glad to see a good MiLB side of things here!  Like the fan voting.

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

One of the first things I saw!  I'm big on the MiLB side of things; I threw together a quick, 1600 word prospect list for PSD pre-season ranking my top, like, 50 or so guys.  Glad to see a good MiLB side of things here!  Like the fan voting.

Those words don't go together, man.

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

Those words don't go together, man.

I'm a teacher by trade, but writing has always been a passion.  I can bang out a few pages in like 30 minutes.  The real work is trying to fight through these damn MiLB streams to watch these guys.  I swear my Galaxy phone has better resolution.

16 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm a teacher by trade, but writing has always been a passion.  I can bang out a few pages in like 30 minutes.  The real work is trying to fight through these damn MiLB streams to watch these guys.  I swear my Galaxy phone has better resolution.

You interested in trying your hand at front page stuff? We could really use some MiLB coverage. We can pay a little but not much, as we're still building out the site and traffic. No huge obligation, just whatever suits your fancy.

2 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You interested in trying your hand at front page stuff? We could really use some MiLB coverage. We can pay a little but not much, as we're still building out the site and traffic. No huge obligation, just whatever suits your fancy.

Honestly, maybe, yeah.  Let me think on it a bit, but I'll probably take you up on that; payment isn't really all that important.  I just like to write.

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Honestly, maybe, yeah.  Let me think on it a bit, but I'll probably take you up on that; payment isn't really all that important.  I just like to write.

We try to compensate the best we can, it's kind of "our thing" as a way to keep the model sustainable and not become exploitative (glares at SB Nation). Some of our writers donate their earnings to various minor league funds or a charity if that's the route you'd like to take.

2 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

You interested in trying your hand at front page stuff? We could really use some MiLB coverage. We can pay a little but not much, as we're still building out the site and traffic. No huge obligation, just whatever suits your fancy.

This is a great idea. Sign me up for all of 1908’s content. When I learned PSD was shutting down, I messaged 1908 privately to make sure I didn’t lose touch with him. I wanted to make sure I went to the same message board as him. He’s incredibly gifted and knowledgeable and he’s completely changed the way I view players and the game of baseball, whether he knows that or not. Every time he posts, I learn something new. 

6 minutes ago, JD94 said:

This is a great idea. Sign me up for all of 1908’s content. When I learned PSD was shutting down, I messaged 1908 privately to make sure I didn’t lose touch with him. I wanted to make sure I went to the same message board as him. He’s incredibly gifted and knowledgeable and he’s completely changed the way I view players and the game of baseball, whether he knows that or not. Every time he posts, I learn something new. 

This is entirely too kind and more than just appreciated, JD.