Hey all! 

I appreciate all the readers of my first blogpost. I won't typically post twice in two days. I figured I'd keep this new blog momentum rolling, though, with a fun topic. In my first post I argued that Paul Dejong would be the best 1 year sub at 3B because of his combination of glove and power. In this Scenario, Shaw starts at Second for Hoerner and then slides into a platoon at 3rd with DeJong. We still haven't sorted out the other two bench spots: 1) The 5th outfielder; 2) The lefty utility glove smallball guy to replace Mastrobouni. Now, I doubt the latter will move the needle noticeably in our quest to win the division, so I'll ignore the Mastrobouni issue. Who cares about a role that is typically worth less than 1 WAR?  On the other hand, we could squeeze a 96+ win season if we have a killer platoon bat on the outfield bench. 

QUESTION: 
On our quest for 96+ wins, who should replace Alexander Canario as the 5th outfielder on the squad? I want a guy who can produce 1.5 - 2 WAR off the outfield bench. Let's go over the logic at play. 

In a team with a stacked outfield, this is a luxury, one might say. Indeed, our top three outfielders are top 5 MLB defenders at their positions. All of our top four are starter quality. All four can hit AND steal, and all four are expected to top 20 HR.  Let that sink in- this is the best outfield we've had since Sammy Sosa was on the team. However, there may be ways for a 5th guy to justify his playing time. Let's go over them. 

1) Our top 3 guys are lefties. Common sense would dictate the next guy up would be a righty. Well, we have that in Seiya Suzuki, who was the Cub's best hitter last year and is the default DH.  Suzuki's splits are fairly balanced, too. Happ is a switch hitter, and Tucker is a superstar, so neither needs to come off the field. This leaves Pete Crow-Armstrong. Well, his splits are classically lefty: He was a roughly .600/ .700 OPS against lefty/righty pitching last year. If my 5th guy sees any serious playing time, he'll be subbing for PCA somehow. To justify removing an elite glove from center field, the 5th guy needs to really MASH against lefty starters.   

Conclusion: A righty platoon specialist makes tons of sense. 

2) Our 5th guy doesn't need to play center. Happ can cover center, Suzuki has the corners. Suzuki can cover both corners with "meh" defense, but you're not actually afraid to give him the assignment. He was a Japanese gold glove type before he bulked up for power in the majors. Something tells me he could easily bounce back and play plus defense in his quest to be a superstar. His arm is solid anyhow. Now, Happ can slide over and cover center quite well - i don't get this narrative that Happ isn't enough glove at center if PCA goes down. Happ is, by some measures, THE BEST LF glove in MLB. He's a plus center fielder. So, the 5th guy really doesn't need to play the field much. He's a DH while Suzuki subs.    

Conclusion: I'll take a righty who can play left field; however, I want my next guy up from the minors (6th outfield) to be a LEFTY, in case of a long-term injury. His name is Owen Caissie BTW. 

3) How good must he be to take PCA off the field? We still look great with Suzuki(LF), Happ(C), and Tucker(RF) out there, so glove doesn't concern me. However, we really need as much hit and power tools as we can get to face teams like the Dodgers and Phillies. PCA could have an upside potential of hitting .700 against lefty pitching, and we want him to get some of those reps; however, PCA is not projected for a high batting average. Our 5th man doesn't need to run because we are stacked with those guys.

Conclusion: This guy should reliably hit over .800 OPS against lefties with power- the more hit tool, the better. 

4) How many at-bats are we talking? Many veterans avoid bench contracts because it drags down their lifetime expected earnings. They will, however, play the bench temporarily for a juggernaut contender. It can be tricky to find a guy at the START of a season who is a reliable bench slugger. This is why most teams have a Canario type guy and promote from within. Let's say this guy gets 100 at bats to cover for Happ, Tucker, and/or Suzuki's minor injuries, and another 150 platooning with PCA. He'll also get another 50 pinching for catchers or other position players. 

Conclusion: Now we've got it narrowed to 300 at bats.

5) How much money are we talking?  This is the key question for a tightwad organization. If I'm willing to contend, I want a guy with a 3+ WAR projection per 162 games, who is willing to play only 40% of the time, typically at DH. He will want to be paid a premium to sit and platoon. He's also good enough to start at DH full-time we lose a player for the season, or else he wouldn't be worth the dough. The Cubs have the cash to burn on a 1 year deal for this exact type of player. 

Conclusion: I'm looking for a $10-$15 MM guy who strikes fear into the hearts of left-handed pitchers but can handle righties if necessary. I'm also willing to take him on a 2-year 30 MM contract if he's THAT good, especially if he can take over for DH in 2026 if Suzuki replaces Tucker in RF. I don't believe in arbitrarily making room for prospects that aren't ready during a contention year - that is a true small market philosophy and shouldn't be at the heart of Cubs roster building strategy.    

The Big Reveal: Who Fits this Profile?

As you might guess, a handful of guys could fill this role via trade, now or mid-season. However, among the available free agents there is one specific guy:

Randal Grichuk. 

The 33-year-old had a landmark season for the D-backs. He hit .291 with 12 home runs, 46 RBIs and an .875 OPS (140 OPS+) in 106 games. He absolutely dominated lefties while sharing a platoon role with the elite righty killer Joc Pederson. Here are his 2024 splits from Fangraphs: 

Arguments Against Grichuk. 

1) It's too much spend on the outfield. I disagree with this. We are blessed to have very few holes on the 26 man roster. The biggest need is more bat, and I'll spend for that because we haven't proven ourselves yet at the plate. This is one of only three places you can spend that money. Depth outfielders don't get hurt much compared to pitchers. So spend it on a killer platoon! Besides, he worked wonders for the Diamondbacks last year. 

2) He won't want to play bench anymore. Aye, this is a problem. He had such a monster year that like the Pirates are begging for the guy as a full-time player. Our best counter-argument is that he's not getting any younger or better at defense. Grichuk projects as a 0 to -.5 WAR defender for the future. He's better off where he can focus more on the DH role and contend immediately. 

3) We've got other young bats at no additional cost- stretch them out. If money was a concern, I wouldn't even be writing this. However, we've got it to burn this year. The only player we are really stifling is Canario. Alcantara needs 1 more year of seasoning to be anything but a glove. Caissie hasn't even burned options yet, and his lefty bat makes him a better injury replacement at DH than an Opening Day 5th man. I have both of them pencilled in as competing for 5th man in 2026, not 2025. 

4) Suzuki would get madder.  Meh, this one doesn't concern me. Suzuki is the next GLOVE up- most of the time he's playing, Grichuk will be DH, with 3 of the top 4 guys playing the field. Suzuki should get as many glove reps as Grichuk gets DH reps. 

5) Maybe we need a glove? If we want to lock down the #1 outfield defense in the majors, we could go with lefty Alex Verdugo. However, this WOULD make Suzuki mad, indeed, because it would remove any chances of him getting serious reps in the outfield. It would also defeat the purpose of platoon reps. I don't like it at all.  

6) Wait until mid-season.  Let's go back to conventional wisdom - let the young guys get their cups of coffee in the outfield and then go get your veteran bat at the All-Star Break. Why don't I like this idea? Lately, rental bats haven't been very effective. I much prefer rental pitchers. Furthermore, I'd rather spend the money than the prospects for a rental bat. I want to only deal prospects for pitching because arms are what we lack in the low levels of the minors.  

Verdict: Grichuk could be had for maybe 2 years, 20 million, or 1 year, 12 million. He'll definitely outhit Canario, especially because of his much lower strikeout rate and higher walk rate.  It would be a bold statement that we are really going for it and won't let anyone ride out a mid-season hitting slump in our outfield. 

Please comment below if you have other suggestions. I will run a poll if we get enough interest!