I'm taking a sidestep from the roster construction discussion for a moment to reflect on the upside potential of the dynamic duo of Pete-Crow Armstrong and Michael Busch.  Although the media has fallen in love with PCA already, they have been strangely silent about Busch. 

Well, there's at least one clear reason for it: baseball media has greatly devalued the first base position in recent years. I mean, look at Pete Alonso's struggle to land a 30 million dollar year. Advanced statistics really don't give much value to a first base glove, even if Gold Glove caliber. In essence, nobody wants a liability at the position, but nobody wants to pay a glove premium, especially if the guy lacks the elite bat. A big part of this is that few 1B are among the top 50 hitters in the league and aren't making up for it with enough circus catches. 

Busch already ranks as approximately the 10th best glove at the position.... rare for a rookie year. The Cubs media didn't get jazzed about this. Strangely, we keep seeing articles everywhere that STILL Argue for the Cubs picking up Alonso and moving Busch to 2nd. Bizarre. 

So let's look at hitting numbers. Here's the top 1B hitting list. Guess who is #8 in wOBA? The rookie Busch! Also note his .322 BABIP and 11.1 BB%. #6 Alonso barely outhit Busch, mainly in slugging. Alonso was a bottom-half starter in terms of glove.  

In 2024, only 4 first basemen had an OPS that exceeded .800. This is quite bad for a position that historically was your first or second best hitter. We can see this also in the projected annual value of these players based on WAR. only 6 players had 3 or higher WAR value!!! That's terrible.  

Busch projects as three-way tied as the 6th best first Baseman in 2025. 

It's rare for a 26 year old to plateau in their Rookie year. Based on age and other factors, here's my projected 1B rankings for 2025,: 

1) Guerrero  2) Freeman  3)  Harper  4)  Olson  5) Walker 6) Busch/Perez/Naylor.

Alonso will likely outhit him with a worse glove, whereas Santana and Lowe will outfield him but not outhit. Perez is close to a dead tie because his "positional" score is kind of a statistical fluke that inflates his value over other first basemen, and I don't expect it to recur. 

Things get really interesting when we compare Busch to Walker, Olson and Lowe, each who barely bested his wOBA in 2024.  First, Walker is already facing a plateau at his age, as he's turning 34. Second, by many measures, Olson is arguably the 3rd best 1B after Guererro and Freeman; still, in a down 2024 year, his numbers were virtually identical to the rookie Busch. Third, Nethaniel Lowe is being treated by the market more like a risky leadoff hitter than a real deal slugger. He relied mainly on a 12.6% walk rate and brisk .265 BA to outhit Busch. His OPS was just .762 since he lacks the fundamental slugging you want from the position. Finally about Naylor: he's practically Busch's twin thus far, but I see more upside in Busch's power fundamentals.  

Keep in mind, Busch will likely be hitting behind the killer duo of Tucker and Suzuki. That should help raise his batting average a notch. 

What is holding him back, if anything?  

Strikeouts, pure and simple. His was the highest K% on the entire leaderboard. However, I forgive this from a rookie who can really take a walk and work a count. I expect him to be basically the same player next year but with a reduction from 28.6% to about 24% in strikeouts, translating into more roundtrips on the diamond and more RBI. 

I project a healthy Busch at .260/.345/.470 with about 30 HR (per 162 games), 100 RBI, and .815 OPS. 

Conclusion: Is there a guy we would rather have?

Only Guerrero would be worth a roster shakeup - and even then, not with the $500MM price tag he will be commanding (Personally I think he's going to outhit Soto across his career!). So the answer is no -Busch is OUR GUY and the closest thing to a Matt Olson out there. No, I would not rather have Alonso. Yes, I think Busch rounds out the list of seven true multi-tool stars at the position for 2025-2027. while under team control. Alonso, Perez, Naylor, and Lowe are scratching at his back, but in terms of contract status, I'd not trade Busch 1-for-1 for any of them. 

So, Cubs fans, please get pumped for a perennial "All-Star alternate" type hitter with the occasional NL gold glove. He'll have a 2.5 to 3.5 WAR range year with many "no doubters"!