Matt Boyd, now Colin Rea: What is This Strategy Anyway? 

Let's get right into it, shall we? Many fans were disappointed by this dual signing of backend starters. Fans ALWAYS want to fill from the top of the depth chart - they wanted a new #1 or #2 (Max Fried, Garret Crochet) or at least a #3 to leapfrog Taillon (Walker Buehler, Luis Castillo). But there's more reasons to NOT do this than to do this - especially given the organization's strategy to cap salary at the tax line. Let's reflect on arguments in favor of the Hoyer Strategy. He wants to win "just enough wins" to take the division and go from there, without overspending, and without worsening the future roster. He clearly doesn't expect to win the World Series; still, it is his sworn duty to beat the Brewers this year if he wants to return to his Cubs role in 2026.  

1) The price of #1-#3 starting pitchers is currently well exceeding the WAR value. Luxury spending teams are paying absurd premiums on 2025 pitching. The Mets are giving Sean Manea a salary about 50% over his WAR value...and then paying a tax on top of that! 

2) Prices over/under WAR value are mostly determined by a short-term pitching scarcity.  The entire league is stockpiling extra pitching due to injury trends. They are still in process of adjusting their roster building strategies at the minor league level. This all leads to short-term over-bidding on starters. It's simply a bad year to be going nuts on pitching, especially if you like what you're developing internally. Take, for example, the absurd Red Sox proposition of a 21 MM PILLOW CONTRACT for a weak-throwing version of Buehler - about 50% over the expected price. Also, the 50% inflated example of the A's and Severino: a 3-year 66MM deal to play Ace when he's not better than our #3 Taillon. Frankly, any organization that can work around this pitching bubble deserves credit, as fans adjust to the realization that top arms are sitting out entire seasons lately.  

3) The price of starting pitching will be more rational mid-season. Let's face it - when the primary cause of pitching prices is injury rates, the best time to buy pitching is mid-season. It allows young talent to emerge - and every year about 1/3rd of popular free agent arms are surpassed by lesser known or injured names. In fact, that's how Boyd ended up getting paid by the Cubs. He emerged from injury to have a killer run from August to October. As professionals know, most teams snag about 2 impactful pitchers later on, to push for contention. 

in 2024, the Cubs did a phenomenal job in recovering their bullpen mid-season with cheap but excellent pitchers. I expect them to find such pieces in 2025 later on, especially in the LH closing dept. Also, don't forget that Cade Horton and Cody Poteet both have a real shot of stealing a rotation slot by August. 

4) Workhorse starters should have a high floor, not high ceiling. To win a 162 game season, you want starting depth that can eat innings but need not be relied on to start in the postseason. These are 1 to 1.5 WAR players who fill out the #4 to #8 ranks of the depth chart. Their job is to NOT MESS UP. 

The cubs have 4 guys who rightly fit this formula: Boyd, Assad, Rea, Poteet, and in a pinch, Wicks. Perhaps you want your #9 and #10 guys to be the youngsters with compelling high-upside. Well, we've got those in #9 (Horton) and #10 (Brown), although the team insists Brown is a bullpen guy for 2025.   

5) Workhorse starters should profile as very healthy. You don't want hot young fireballers who blow out their arm. You want guys with mediocre stuff, whose pitching style focus on control and complexity offerings, with low risk of injury. You especially want them to have plausible narratives of having put any injuries behind them well BEFORE the season. 

Boyd and Rea fit this bill nicely. Both project to be very healthy and to be pitching their career-best ball in 2025. Both can maintain this pattern because they don't rely on stuff, and they both had their elbow reconstruction already and look great health-wise ever since. They both unlocked new strategies in 2024 that maximize their 5 pitch arsenals to create confusion for hitters. And, they both have low walk rates, which means they can stay in the game for 1-2 more outs than average. 

6) Workhorse starters should have a good WAR price. Because these guys are somewhat expendable for the post-season, and won't sell many jerseys, they should be good deals. This is a classic area of the roster for saving money when on a tight budget. 

Boyd @ 1.5 WAR for AAV of $14.5 MM/year is not inflated, due to his upside of 2.5 WAR. Rea @ 1 WAR for $5 MM is actually cheap- his projected value is $7-8 MM. 

7) The Cubs starters were good enough for the postseason in 2024, except for Hendricks. So, fans keep underestimating how hard it is to rank 6th in rotation ERA when you've got Hendricks throwing over 6. Hendricks' WAR was -1.6.

Replacing his innings for Boyd @1.5 WAR is a positive swing of about 3. That's big. Rea's 1 WAR replacing 0.2 WAR Drew Smyly gets us yet another win. The combined cost of Boyd/Rea is also much cheaper than Hendricks/Smyly !  

😎 Rea is a swingman - but he can push Assad. Despite Assad's success, his fundamentals are poor, especially his walk 9.9% rate. Rea has a very low walk rate and pounds the strike zone.  This is a great combo, because whenever Assad's junk approach falters, you've got a guy you can trust to throw strikes behind him. I've said it before - Assad needs to develop a true strikeout pitch. Maybe a Japanese-style splitter? While he figures that Out, Rea is a stable option. 

9) Cubs need to hit. Period.  2024 was a tough year for hitters. Still, the top teams (Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Orioles) all had high slugging percentages. Many of the top pitching squads like Braves, Mariners, Tigers, Guardians, Brewers, AND CUBS didn't have the bat success to make it. When league batting averages are low, the big bats are the place to be spending. 

By only spending $15MM in 2025 on Boyd/Rea, they can and should redirect that money for fixing their hitting weaknesses.

10) 3B is a solvable problem and the bigger problem. If Hoyer fails, the pitchforks are coming. So, after thoroughly defending Hoyer's pitching strategy, let's go to the real question: will he spend enough to finish the team? Let's suppose Hoyer stashes extra money for pitching mid-season, and so only spends 220MM on Opening Day Payroll. Where do you spend it?   

I think me and everyone else would be okay with Alex Bregman, but that doesn't fit their spending strategy. So, let's assume they go for serious power bat on a short-term contract at 3B, so that Shaw can ease into the majors and the Cubs can solve their slugging dilemma. Problem is, they instead loaded up on cheap, sub-par LH hitters with gloves for camp, such as Gage Workman and Vidal Brujan, who are only playable as platoon hitters and can't hit a homer. There's really only one FA left with HR pop AND a glove, and that fit a 1-year profile: Paul DeJong. He projects as a .230 /.280/.440 hitter at Wrigley, with 30 HR per 162. He's a superb glove at 3B and only average at SS. I have him as a 2 WAR guy at the hot corner, with 1 coming from the glove and the other from his HR swing. His hitting splits are reverse: last year he was .730 against righties, which makes him a potential platoon with Shaw. Because the Cubs were -1 WAR at the position last year, this would be a 3 WAR swing, with a sticker price hopefully in the 8-10 million range. This would be EXACTLY where we need to be to aim for a 220 MM roster, assuming Hoyer spends the rest on a contract extension for Steele - the only guy I think will sign an extension soon.     

So: is it a good strategy?

Mostly, but I have a few concerns. Let's ADD THE WAR and find out. I have the Cubs as a much-improved team, in the 92-93 WAR range, even with the "weak signings" of Boyd/Rea. Carson Kelly gives you net 1 WAR at catcher. Tucker is about 3 net WAR. You expect PCA and Busch to combine for +2 WAR over last year. At least +3 from Boyd/Rea, although I'm expecting +4. And, +1 for starting the season with a closer/setup Hodge/Miller who will outperform Alzolay/Neris. This all takes us from about 83 wins to at least 93, even before we evaluate third base. We still have budget to upgrade the bench with a killer combo like DeJong/Shaw, which would add enough additional slugging to swing us into the 95 win level like the Phils and Orioles. Or, miracle of miracles, Jed pulls the trigger on Bregman and we are a 96 win team with exceptional fielding chemistry, 

Now, if Hoyer fails to do enough, its unlikely the rotation. Blame it on a "meh" approach to bolstering our team slugging, and the glove-only infield bench. Should we really trust Canario as the OF bench solution, or would you have preferred moving him for an experienced player? I'm not sure on this. The catcher position still has a lot riding on it to improve - all the greatest teams have great catchers right now. 

Conclusion

If you like this kind of analysis, you'll like what I have planned for future articles on fornorthsidebaseball.com! I may even crack the odd joke or tell the odd story, but my writing style is on deeper analysis of publicly available facts that tell a better story.