anemic offense

from: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=rogers_phil&id=2305617 Let me get this straight. An enigmatic pithcer who smatters a few good seasons in between years of mediocre to horrid performance deserves $60 million dollars over 5 years??? I'm surprised Jaques Jones didn't make his list.[/url]

I agreed with what you said Diffusion, until I got to this part: Although I readily admit I'm a Cedeno optimist, there is little reason to think he'll be anywhere near as bad as Neifi is. His AAA stint last year was impressive. He was better in his limited MLB time despite how Dusty played him. And now he has had a very impressive winter ball season, especially when considering he was coming off injury. Not to mention, he is already fundamentally superior to Neifi, even though he's only 23. Not that Ronnie couldn't fall on his face, rather there is virtually no reason to think this would happen. Neifi isn't good enough to hold Ronnie's jock strap...and that's right now.

I think Pie getting up to 200 means the Cubs will look to re-sign Pierre, with the belief that Felix can play a corner (most likely RF with his arm). I'd still like Pie to be the CF in 2007. I would like to see him get some ABs in the 2-hole next season. I'd start him at AA again, and call him up to AAA about midseason. Starting him at AA may end up being the best option, but I wouldn't draw any definitive conclusions until he gets through spring training. In fact, his subpar winter ball outing should have somewhat been expected being he had little to no playing time the last 3 months of the season. If he can regain his hitting stroke by end of spring training I think it does little good to put him back in a league he had considerable success in for the 05 season. However, if he struggles throughout most of March they could always send him back for West Tenn for a couple months. Its not like he figures to play much this year anyway (unless he blows up AAA), that is until they expand the rosters late in the season (in which case he'd still pry rot on the bench).

He's got to get playing time first. And we all know he's not one of Dusty's "boys".

Not the point. Go back and read a few of his articles over the last several years and you'll see what I'm talking about. It's not this one article in particular (which I don't have a problem with, because its accurate), rather its the sum of the parts. If you still don't see where I'm coming from, then I'll reference Rob Neyer as an example. I don't agree with a lot of his assessments sometimes (I'm not a huge stat guy, altthough I willingly acknowledge their importance), but I'll have to admit is opinions are rarely biased and rooted in fact. With that said, it is abundantly clear his Twins bias rears its head at least once every year. Not that I have a problem with that, it just goes to show most journalists have a positive or negative bias towards some teams. In Perry's case, I've always got the impression he just doesn't like the Cubs. Sometimes its content, sometimes its his tone, but I think its quite obvious. You can agree/disagree with that all you like. That's a little odd considering he's been a Royals fan his entire life. And he doesn't hesitate to rip into them for terrible moves they make. beat me to it. Really?? Hmmm could have swore it was him. But even if he isn't a Twins fan you'd still think he was one by reading his articles. He always seems especially optimistic when it comes to their rebounding players, such as Kubel and Mourneau.

I thought the Reds would still have Dunn under control? What the hell is your avie all about OO?? About gives me a headache. LOL

Makes you wonder when one of the "best hitting prospects in all of baseball" gets traded twice in one off season, especially when the initating team was the Braves. How many times have they been wrong on their own prospects??? It'd be enough to make me leary.

Not the point. Go back and read a few of his articles over the last several years and you'll see what I'm talking about. It's not this one article in particular (which I don't have a problem with, because its accurate), rather its the sum of the parts. If you still don't see where I'm coming from, then I'll reference Rob Neyer as an example. I don't agree with a lot of his assessments sometimes (I'm not a huge stat guy, altthough I willingly acknowledge their importance), but I'll have to admit is opinions are rarely biased and rooted in fact. With that said, it is abundantly clear his Twins bias rears its head at least once every year. Not that I have a problem with that, it just goes to show most journalists have a positive or negative bias towards some teams. In Perry's case, I've always got the impression he just doesn't like the Cubs. Sometimes its content, sometimes its his tone, but I think its quite obvious. You can agree/disagree with that all you like.

Not that it isn't true, but I wouldn't put much stock in what Perry says. This guy's got a hard on for several teams, and the Cubs definately aren't one of them. After reading his articles over the last several years, I'm thoroughly convinced he wouldn't like the Cubs even if they assembled an All Star cast. I think I respect him the least of ALL the baseball journalist. Excpet maybe Phil Rogers.

To me the bolded part is where the Cubs have to invest more in. I don't know if it is dollars or people or both. Unfortunatley, I think a lot of our failure is in the instruction. When several publications (noteably BA) consistently rate your drafts well over a five year period, it gives a good indication you're getting the talent. The problem is, these players (maybe its attitude, or their work ethic) remain SO inept at the fundamentals of the game, like strike zone judement, base running, situational contact, etc. that they have little chance to succeed. It would be different if it was a few players here and there, but most every one of our touted prospects (positional) have proven inadequate. That's not to say some of the blame shouldn't fall on the scouting deparment. It's obvious they've made some mistakes. But I think a lot of is our lower level instruction. It'd be hard to name an organization who fails to get players (hitters) to improve as much as this one does. Whatever the case, it definately has to be fixed.

Thanks for the report Roast. Even though most of the responses were the typical run-around garbage.

I think Jock should have consulted with the GREAT Atodda the Hundley before he made this prediction. IIRC, "If people don't think I'll hit 40 HRS this year they're crazy". No Todd, it was YOU who was crazy. Though I'll have to admit, I got the feeling this one's actually going to happen.

I see what you're saying but that logic simply does not work. There are so many factors, such as caliber of players hitting around him, OBP at the top of the order, number of capable RBI guys in the lineup (we had Alou and Sosa, Thome would have just taken away/or lost RBIs/runs to those two), etc. etc. that make it IMPOSSIBLE to assume equal production on two totally different teams. You're also negating to factor in his salary. Althought he Tribco had MORE than enough to get Thome, it would have meant less money would have been available for other players. Maybe this means not being able to add Aramis and Lofton. Maybe it means we couldn't afford to trade for Grudz and Karros (I believ they added at least a few mil to the payroll even though they were expiring contracts). The addition of Thome would have changed the whole dynamic of the team, and not neceassarily for the better. Thome was once a great player and one of the games most feared hitters. But not signing Thome was one of the BEST things this organiztion ever did. It would have saddled this team with an albatross contract which would have been impossiblt to move. Not only that, I don't think any one would argue the Phillies got equal value production for the dollars in the contract. And, with hindsight being 20/20, the Phillies probably wouldn't do that deal again. At least I bet they wouldn't.

Last year it went to Baltimore, because the fans were never going to take him back after he ran out on the team. I understand that. But that’s over now. Where does all that money go for next season? Apparently into the new bleacher seats, which will not help if winning a championship is on the to do list for the foreseeable future. Eyre, Howry, Jock, Prior raise, Z raise, and Pierre's salary. Like it or not that's where it went (and then some).

Not only that, but there's so many places to hide cash in the corporate umbrella. Then figure in a lot of the peripherals, as in Premium Tickets (or whatever the bogus ticket scalping "biz's" name was), and the Cubs national television exposure (being TribCo owns WGN, therefore the TV rights go back into the same pocket) and you have even more money. My guess is, the Cubs/Tribco. make SO MUCH off things which aren't included in the actual profitability/revenue sheets, that it would be virtually impossible to calculate the real value. Bottom line, the Cubs are a cash cow. Plain and simple. Can you back that up with some facts and figures? The Cubs are profitable, but hardly a "cash cow". Their spending is in line or above comparable teams not named the Yankees or Red Sox. Every other team in their revenue range is also associated with a cable outlet. ANd if they make any profits from their ticket agency, it's likely it's in the 6 digit range, not 7 digits. Yes, there are some things that companies do to get the desired bottom line, but the net revenues recognized by baseball is 170 mil, and the player costs of 106 mil is indisputable. They still have a front office and have to pay MacPhail, Hendry, dusty, and all of the scouts; the people in the ticket office; security, ushers; toilet papaper, water for the urinals, repairs etc. Forbes estimates are based on tax records and information from MLB baseball, so the profit numbers should be pretty close. I've got nothing to back it up aside from common sense (not intended to sound arrogant). But if you don't want to take my word for it, take it from the rest of the MLB. If I'm not mistaken, many a baseball execs were clamoring over how the Cubs were able to shield revenue being that the TribCo owns both. Maybe that has been resolved since then, but I'm sure it was a problem. As for the other aable networks (which don't even come CLOSE to WGNs coverage, as it is offered is the basic cable/satellite packages across much of the US), its kind of hard to compare them to WGN since their SOLE PURPOSE of existence is to broadcast the team's games. Not only that, but I believe the team's own the cable site which means MLB can monitor the ENTIRE channel's revenue as a source of income. With WGN this is not the case. The Cubs are simply a part of the programming package, which in my estimation, would make it MUCH more difficult to scrutinize the specific revenue. By no means am a proclaiming to know EVERYTHING, but I don't think it's to drastic in suggesting the Cubs have more ways to funnel money than most teams. IMO, the Cubs have maybe the most uniquely structured franchise (as is WHO owns them, and what that means for exposure) in all of sports. The only reasonable comparison (in my mind) may be the Braves.

Cause he's an idiot. I know some people will try to come to Corey's defense, but he has PROVEN to be completely clueless. He's been in the league 4 years yet still runs the bases like a third grader (not knowing when/how to steal, poor bunting, getting picked off base, etc.). At the plate, he is equally inept. He has ZERO strike zone judgement and swings as though he's one of the the game's elite power hitters. But it gets worse. Not only is Corey not very good, he consistently refuses to acknowledge the fact he needs to improve. His arrogance is nauseating. Simply put, Corey is substandard in most every facet of the game, despite his immense talent. It's time for the Cubs and Corey to move on. He can stink it up somewhere else.

I'm so wary of all of Hendry's potential moves at this point that I'd be happy if he just stood pat. CF-Pierre LF-Murton 1B-Lee 3B-Ramirez RF-Jones C-Barrett 2B-Walker SS-Cedeno P-Z P-Prior P-Williams P-Maddux P-Rusch/Wood RP-Howry RP-Eyre RP-Ohman RP-Novoa RP-Wuertz CL-Dempster B-Hairston B-Perez B-Blanco B-Mabry B-Patterson At this point, fine by me, even though we don't have a 5th hitter. Better that than deal Prior, or absolutely gut the farm system, though. If somehow Baltimore wants to deal Tejada for prospects, fine. Ditto with Dunn or Abreu, although I doubt it happens. Really, though, I just don't see any deal where we get another everyday player coming down the line, so I'd just as soon Hendry lose his cell phone for a couple months. Although, I do see Walker, Patterson and Wellemeyer being dealt. Probably just for prospects or a bench guy or two, though. You're SP lineup is a little out of whack. Remember, even though Maddux is the fourth best pitcher on this team (I wouldn't be surprised if he's the worst) Dusty will put him #2 as to split up his hard throwers. It doesn't matter that he'd potentially be giving one of his WORST starters an extra start or two over the course of the season because using Maddux as a change of pace between his two stars is worth at least 4-5 wins. At least that's the logic (or lack thereof) Dusty will emplore.

I don't see how that would work. Jones and Pierre are locks at their respective positions, while Murton is a cheap (seemingly) viable option at his. Although this lineup could use another LH bat (a quality one, not one of Dusty's "just for the sake of having one" guys), it would make little sense to add much payroll (which is what they'd end up doing) with where the overall is at now (and the Cubs still have to give increases to Prior and Z). Then factor in you'd be giving away at least 2 prospects (pry Murton, and someone else the org. can ill afford to lose) and a deal simply wouldn't make sense. Not that I wouldn't be open to one, its just that the Cubs made there beds (as in LITTLE affordable flexibility) when they signed Jones.

Not only that, but there's so many places to hide cash in the corporate umbrella. Then figure in a lot of the peripherals, as in Premium Tickets (or whatever the bogus ticket scalping "biz's" name was), and the Cubs national television exposure (being TribCo owns WGN, therefore the TV rights go back into the same pocket) and you have even more money. My guess is, the Cubs/Tribco. make SO MUCH off things which aren't included in the actual profitability/revenue sheets, that it would be virtually impossible to calculate the real value. Bottom line, the Cubs are a cash cow. Plain and simple.

I'd like to know where they think they are going to get the money for this. From what I've heard, the economy in the NW (Portland specifically) is extremely (even relative to national standards) weak. Many events are losing longtime sponsors simply because the companies don't have the money, or can't draw enough patrons (because THEY don't have the money) to justify the expense. Then couple this with the fact the Portlant market isn't overly big, and you have yourself a VERY slim margin for success. If the team can establish itself outside the 2-3 year honeymoon period, then maybe it would have a chance to stabilize. But if it doesn't, then Portland will find itslef in the same predicament as the Colorado Rockies, the difference being Denver is much larger. Personally, I see this as a disaster waiting to happen.

If Z ever learns to how to be more consistent with his control (ala like Carptenter did last year) he'll be the best pitcher in baseball. I don't even think it will be close.

I can't ever say I've wished injury on a Cubs player before, but I seriously hope Neifi gets hurt. Nothing extreme, rather a nagging injury that keeps him out of action for a significant period of time. Right now, I just don't see any other way.

Why should the Cubs do this? It just makes no sense. Let's compare Adam Kennedy and Jerry Hairston. Adam Kennedy has hit .290/.349/.407 over the last four years (the most favourable split for him), Jerry Hairston .274/.346/.378. Jerry Hairston has hit .277/.354/.379 over the last three years (the most favourable split for him), Adam Kennedy .282/.350/.392. I think it's fair to conclude then that Kennedy is slightly better with the bat, but that the difference is very slim. The fact that Kennedy bats left-handed is useful too. Defensively both are slightly above average at second base, maybe a slight edge to Kennedy. Kennedy is also a better basestealer, though he's maybe not as fast as Hairston. I think it's fair to come to a conclusion that, overall, Kennedy is fractionally better than Hairston. Kennedy being four months older than Hairston, that's not really much of a factor, and because Kennedy's reasonably priced at $3.35m for 2006 (before becoming a free agent), salary doesn't really come into it either. Hairston's also a free agent next winter by the way. But what this boils down to is do you trade Walker/prospect for Kennedy and go with Kennedy(2B)/Hairston(Util), or do you go with Hairston(2B)/utility player to be named later (via FA, presumably, or Greenberg maybe), trading Walker, as part of a package if necessary, for the pitcher the Cubs are supposed to be looking for. There's simply no contest. You go for the latter option. I'd probably do the first part of the deal as it is, though I'd try and exploit the Rich Hill supposed untouchable-ness and first inquire as to whether Seattle might throw in, say, Asdrubal Cabrera too. He's pretty surplus in the Seattle system, because they're just loaded with shortstops: Yuniesky Betancourt, Mike Morse, Jose Lopez and Adam Jones are all ahead of Cabrera on the depth chart right now, but Cabrera's a very young gold-glove shortstop with a really promising bat: .272/.330/.427 in 2004 aged 18 in short-season ball (239 AB), .318/.407/.474 in 2005 aged 19 at Low-A (192 AB), then .284/.325/.418 in 2005 still aged 19 at High-A (225 AB). As for the second part of the deal, forget about it. We'd be much better off sticking with Reed, trading Pierre. One option would be to trade him for pitching (apparently he's worth a lot of that: Nolasco, Pinto and Mitre). Alternatively, try using Pierre, Williams and Cedeno or something like that to get Tejada, then the lineup would really be smoking: Barrett at C, Lee, Hairston, Tejada, Ramirez across the infield, Reed in CF and some combination of Ibanez/Jones/Murton in the corners. Plus Asdrubal Cabrera at Double-A maybe. What would become of Asdrubal then? With Tejada pretty much locked in at short for 4 more years I'm assuming you'd move him to 2B (or move Miggy over if/when this kid is ready). But then we also have Epatt. My guess is you'd be wanting to see which one of the two pans out the best leaving the oddman out as future trade bait for Hendry.

I like the first deal. Although I'm not (by ANY means) extremely familiar with Kennedy's overall game, I think he'd be an upgrade in both defense and speed (not that he's fast but he's faster than Walk). Also, in looking at his fairly high OBP numbers, he should be a pretty good number two hitter on this team. As much as I'd like to see Cedeno (or even Murton) in the spot that is something I can live with. He is also (I believe) a few years younger than Walk, which could be an added bonus. As far as the second deal is concerned, not only do I not like it, I think it makes little sense (from a Cubs point of view) whatsoever. Granted, many of Hendry's deals defy the laws of logic, but if Hendry viewed Murton as strictly a platoon player then why hasn't his name surfaced in any of the rumored deals??? If Hendry DOESN't view Murton as a platoon player, then he'd be setting his development back a full year in making him platoon with Jones (especially after all the time he got last year). Not to mention, if Hendry does/would bring in Ibanez, just what exactly are his OF plans for the future?? Does this put him in "wait and see mode" with Ibanez and Pierre, providing Pie doesn't fall on his face in AAA this season? Or does he view either or as permanent replacements, with the other OF prospects becoming trade bait? I'm trying pretty hard, but I just don't see how the number 2 deal makes any sense whatsoever. And that's not even considering the negaitve ramifications of bringing Clement back on board.

41) Shammy going to the Pirates is worth 1-2 to wins. 40) Darren Baker is now old enough to reason with his old man. He becomes the defacto manager and his pitching moves become a thing of brilliance. He also leaves Macias and Neifi on the bench most of the time, which is where they should be. Alltold, his extra presence nets us an extra 5-6 wins.