I really like Juan Pierre. He isn't the greatest lead-off hitter. But a team could do a lot worse, too. He needs to walk a lot more than he does to raise his OBP, but his floor is pretty high as floors go. He is a very safe bet to give you a .330 OBP with 50 SBs and a decent defensive CF. I like that. But I don't love it. Nor would I pay 8 million to retain it. I think in the short-term you might be right, even though as recently as last year he was below .330 OBP (and has been below 50 SB 3 times). But I think he's not far from having a much lower floor. He has already declined from his age 25 and 26 level of production, and seems to have set a new lower range of productivity. Plus, his prolonged slump to start 2006 was definitely not a fluke, it was a sign of things to come. He should probably be able to match his 2005 and 2006 numbers next year, at 30. But how much longer will that last? Another slow start in 2007 and he could easily end at career lows. At 31, in 2008, and the guy could be a complete noose around the neck of an offense, putting up sub .300 OBP and sub .340 SLG. Then you're talking Neifi territory. This guy's entire game is predicated on speed. He does nothing else. He does not hit balls hard. He is bound to get worse in his 30's. The question is how quickly and how far he will fall. Maybe he repeats his 2006 in 2007 (or maybe his 2005 becomes the standard), and that is bad enough. But he could be pretty bad, pretty soon. If Pierre could hit 320 or better I'd be fine with it but he doesn't and I don't like the fact that pitchers know they can throw strikes to him and not worry about any damage power wise, it reduces the amount of pitches and sets the tone for the game IMO.