CuseCubFan69

It's tough not to as he's saying all the right things but it is the honeymoon period! Hey...even just saying the right things is an improvement over the past. You got that right. I'm trying for the life of me to remember the things Dusty said in his first spring for the Cubs. Maybe I just blocked them out for my own sanity. Lou did seem a little fiesty with the press about Soriano didn't he? I had a feeling the press would look for flaws in CF and jump on the tiniest of details.

Nope, the ritual continues.

It's tough not to as he's saying all the right things but it is the honeymoon period!

I'm not trying to kill your buzz, just dreaming up realistic possibilities for getting ARod on board. I've been trying to think of ways to get him here since '99. I just pictured you as JD on Scrubs going into a daydream at work thinking about this. If Z is not going to sign a 3 year or more deal I'd still look into trading him to the Yanks for ARod before opening day as long as ARod agrees on a long term with the Cubs. I'd probably do it with or without the agreement. Odds are once he's here, the Cubs can convince him to stay. If Prior and Guzman could step up this would be a no brainer. How many productive years do you think ARod has ahead of him?

Thanks craig. What's he top off at?

I'm not trying to kill your buzz, just dreaming up realistic possibilities for getting ARod on board. I've been trying to think of ways to get him here since '99. I just pictured you as JD on Scrubs going into a daydream at work thinking about this. If Z is not going to sign a 3 year or more deal I'd still look into trading him to the Yanks for ARod before opening day as long as ARod agrees on a long term with the Cubs.

Interesting. If Lou is dead set on a lefty in the 2 slot here I'd rather see what Pagan could do there than Izturis. Pagan's not an option for the two spot on a regular basis though-it's Murton, Jones, DeRosa, or Izturis-Piniella said he is looking for patience there and the ability to hit fastballs and hit the ball to all fields. I don't mind Izturis there for now-if he shows those abilities, then that's great. If he doesn't, let's find it out in ST and not during the regular season. I agree but I would rather see him get some AB's to show what he has or doesn't have. Ahh-yeah, I'd definitely put him in front of Blanco-it's not like Blanco's AB's are really going to be important in spring. I do think Lou cares more about finding the proper lineup order though then evaluating the different possible 25th man candidates-it's an interesting question of which is more important right now. Well let's hope that Lou's son tells him how bad of a hitter Izturis really is!

Interesting. If Lou is dead set on a lefty in the 2 slot here I'd rather see what Pagan could do there than Izturis. Pagan's not an option for the two spot on a regular basis though-it's Murton, Jones, DeRosa, or Izturis-Piniella said he is looking for patience there and the ability to hit fastballs and hit the ball to all fields. I don't mind Izturis there for now-if he shows those abilities, then that's great. If he doesn't, let's find it out in ST and not during the regular season. I agree but I would rather see him get some AB's to show what he has or doesn't have.

Interesting. If Lou is dead set on a lefty in the 2 slot here I'd rather see what Pagan could do there than Izturis.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-070301cubs,1,3625276.story?coll=chi-sportstop-hed I think this is an interesting article. I would like to see Soriano call off Jones in those instances but it is just the beginning. I'm really happy the way Lou goes about preseason games. Keep getting better and learn from your mistakes.

Would you mind if we move this to baseball discussions because I think we have some pretty good info here.

I've already stated multiple times (as have others) that past MLB performance and minor league numbers would give you the information you need to make that determination about whether or not a player is capable of eclipsing the breakeven point. You then have proceeded to try and counter this by saying that in a world where nobody ever steals, there is no data. OK, fine. If we really were advocating NEVER stealing (which we absolutely aren't), why on earth would we need to know the success rate anyways?? You wouldn't.

We lost to you guys in the 70's in the NCAA's and it ain't gunna happen again! But Coach has beat you since: http://images.usatoday.com/sports/_photos/2004/10/03/inside2-smart- And Boeheim has owned him since!

Now that I could see. But, you still need somebody to steal for you to get the information to make the % move. I agree with dav when he says to steal in the minors but still, that doesn't give you that golden number to go by to be able to make sure you have that exact 70% or above type success. Goony, what happens if everyone in MLB feels this way. How do you get the correct barameter to judge this by? I really don't understand your question. He's saying that in some crazy scenario where nobody stole ever (in the MLB or minors), there would be no way to know the success rate of basestealers. Close enough? Actually the "crazy" mlb idea is yours and sullys because you don't think stealing is worth it unless you have a 70% or better success rate. I'm saying you will have nothing to go by if you don't attempt to steal at all which is what sully feels is the direction to go. So since you don't steal, what's the rate?

Get the torches!

Dusty? Hey I didn't come up with the chicken/egg they did so I tried to answer it in a way they might understand. i'm convinved that someone has kidnapped the real CCF. It's me sully. I just don't understand all or nothing scenerios.

Dusty? Hey I didn't come up with the chicken/egg they did so I tried to answer it in a way they might understand.

Now that I could see. But, you still need somebody to steal for you to get the information to make the % move. I agree with dav when he says to steal in the minors but still, that doesn't give you that golden number to go by to be able to make sure you have that exact 70% or above type success. Goony, what happens if everyone in MLB feels this way. How do you get the correct barameter to judge this by?

That's not the case at all. It's not that "steals could hurt you 30%." A basestealer has to be able to steal successfuly at over 70% for basestealing to be at all beneficial to an offense. If you have guys who can steal at 80-90% (like, as sully mentioned, Carlos Beltran), you steal. If you don't, you don't. There's no lack of belief in stealing. It's a belief in stealing only if it's to the benefit of the offense. Otherwise, why bother stealing? Ok Take away the 30% statement. How do you know that a player could steal at 70% or higher? Past performance. There is none so what are you going by? His college or HS? I'm starting to see the whole chicken/egg aspect to this too... :lol: Since you're talking about players coming up through the system... You already said that. Team sully does not want the stolen base to be used in their system. You see, you need the attempts to be able to figure out the information. If you totaly disregard it you do not have the 70% to be able to use to do your stealing. It's not a chicken or egg. It's like you are an omnivore and now want to be a vegetarian. You want to say that it's a better lifestyle but all you have are vegetarians to compare with, how do you prove that being a omnivore is less healthy?

Exactly. If you have a catcher that gets it down to second in 1.7 it changes. If you have a catcher at 2.3 it changes. Who pitches makes it change. It just isn't a flat out number to go by in every instance.

I'm looking forward to Cuban Cigar Day at Wrigley so I hope it's true.

That's not the case at all. It's not that "steals could hurt you 30%." A basestealer has to be able to steal successfuly at over 70% for basestealing to be at all beneficial to an offense. If you have guys who can steal at 80-90% (like, as sully mentioned, Carlos Beltran), you steal. If you don't, you don't. There's no lack of belief in stealing. It's a belief in stealing only if it's to the benefit of the offense. Otherwise, why bother stealing? Ok Take away the 30% statement. How do you know that a player could steal at 70% or higher? Past performance. There is none so what are you going by? His college or HS?

I heard that Les Walrond has looked good in spring training thus far. Can't wait to see (listen to) Rocky pitch since he's now on the 40-man. 1.5 hours to go!! Imagine another tough decision for Lou? I love it when they have tough decisions like this over oh God, who can we put here that won't kill us. Les Walrond and Cesar Izturis for Alex Rodriguez. Let's remind Steinbrenner again how A-Rod isn't "clutch". And they would bring chemistry to the Yanks!

I guess the question would make sense if every player on this hypothetical team was homegrown and had also never attempted a steal in the minors as well. But since that isn't really ever possible, then I would imagine that the point is that you can look at a lot of players' past history to see whether or not they are a decent base stealer. Someone like Pierre had years and years of data to look at, we didn't need to tell him to try to steal 50 bases for us last year before we knew how good he was at it. But if baseball goes the sully method in 2015 how do you know? My point is that somebody has to make the attempt to even get the numbers for you to base your decision on. Also, don't you need a decent sized sample too? Pierre has that and you're right but what about guys that don't. What if Murton could steal at 82% of the time but since they never try how would we ever know? Not only that but what if in the scenerio you are talking about, you have a manager that runs him all the time and his rate stinks because of it. He's hovering around 64% so you disregard him and never steal? this has turned into a strange chicken/egg argument. Why? You never steal and go station to station. I assume you have get your stats from the players from other teams but regarding your homegrown guys you'll have no clue on what to do. You see, to be able to compare and use stats you actually have to use examples to extract that information so you could make a knowledgable decision. Since you don't want teams to steal where do you get this info? If every team listens to you and thinks the sully way is the best way how would anyone know what kind of % rate any player would have? well, since on the whole, stealing is unnecessary and more often than not destructive, there'd be no need. So now you're abandoning it all together. Fine. Have you also got rid of bunting too?

That's not the case at all. It's not that "steals could hurt you 30%." A basestealer has to be able to steal successfuly at over 70% for basestealing to be at all beneficial to an offense. If you have guys who can steal at 80-90% (like, as sully mentioned, Carlos Beltran), you steal. If you don't, you don't. There's no lack of belief in stealing. It's a belief in stealing only if it's to the benefit of the offense. Otherwise, why bother stealing? Ok Take away the 30% statement. How do you know that a player could steal at 70% or higher?