Bull

That seems unnecessarily and aggressively dismissive. And disingenuous. The amount of business and therefore tax revenue the Cubs bring to the city certainly exceeds this amount. I don't see how you can represent this as taking away from the schools unless there's a detail I missed. Also, this is politically divisive. I thought we were trying to limit that. You set out food for the troll.

A lot of the projections have Bellinger regressing to about a 2.5 WAR. Much of the discussion has focused on a perceived overachievement when actual results were compared to the batted ball profile and higher-than-typical BABIP last year. I wanted to break down why Bellinger was so good last year as compared to 2020-2022 and assess if last year was flukey, a new normal, or a step towards his pre-injury days. The first element to Cody's success last year was the shift ban. There were tons of articles last year on who would benefit the most from the shift ban BEFORE the season started, but surprisingly little reflection AFTER the season on who actually benefitted. Maybe some of you who pay for content on the analytical sites can dig up better info, but the most recent info I could find was a midseason article on MLB.com (I know, I know) It suggests that Bellinger was one of the top beneficiaries of extra hits due to the shift ban. This explains the increased BABIP and hedges against regression as the ban remains in place going forward. The second element is the change in approach. He particularly changed his approach on 0-2 counts. His contact rate, in-zone contact rate, expected average, and expected slg. were significantly up, and his average exit velo in 0-2 counts was significantly down. He also went opposite field more than ever down 0-2, and 1-2. This accounts for most of his "lack of hard hit balls" His hard hit percentage on 0-2 was 14.3 well down from both prime Cody in 2019 (hereafter PC19) of 47.8% and from Crap Cody in 2021 (hereafter CC21) of 29.4%. But ahead in the count was a different story. Through 3-1 his HH% was PC19: 38.5, CC21 27.3 and NC23 (new cody): 38.9. Through 3-0, PC19: 55.6, CC21:33.3% and NC23:45.5% It appears the lack of hard-hit percentage was when he was down in the count, which is something to love. Additionally, when up in the count his profile was more like Prime Cody, something we would love to see again. Then there's the injury. Most of the focus has been on the shoulder injury, but this guy https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger suggested before last season that there was a change in mechanics due to a leg injury that exactly coincides with Bellingers fall off the cliff. If the Cubs fixed those mechanics last year, could we see a continued resurgence? Finally, the contract. Cody came back to the Cubs on a "prove it" deal. It seems he believes that he is destined for greater things this year. Of course, athletes have egos and I imagine former MVP's have among the biggest, but there may be something to the contract that suggests he thinks he's just going to get better. And it seems he is willing to keep getting better with the Cubs coaching staff. I believe that Bellinger is something different than what he was either in 2019 or 2021. I think he is more Anthony Rizzo than peak Bellinger and less Jason Heyward than his nadir suggests. I think 2023 is a great indication for 2024, and the predictions of regression are unfounded.

deleted to make new topic.

It took me longer than it should to realize you were talking about Matt and not Keegan.

If that's true you buried the lead in your previous post about the Giants and Twins If the Giants and Twins had offered more, then Cody chose the Cubs. If the Giants and Twins AND Jed had offered more, then Cody bet on himself.

Exactly. As I said, he's a defensive replacement infielder and superfluous on a team with two gold glove caliber shortstops. If Dansby needs a day off, you put Nico at short and Morel at 2B where he can't do too much damage with bad throws. Miles has options left. Put him in Iowa in case of an injury to Nico or Dansby.

You're working really hard here for comps. No need. He is the comp. He is a known commodity. The conversation should revolve around versions of Cody Bellinger. Was the early success last year an indication that the shoulder is finally healed and the late drop-off an indication of reinjury or fatigue? Is he a new thing that is defined by limited success last year, and he'll never return to MVP form? Is he *almost* back to full steam and we can hope for even more this year? Only time will tell, but the deal is good if he is last years CB and great if he continues to regain strength and return to MVP caliber at the plate.

My point is that he is what he is, and Sept was probably the best possible version of what he is. It was a “sting finish” exactly as the previous poster said. Don’t work too hard on this. He is a defensive replacement infielder. Any hitting is a bonus. My opinion is that he is superfluous on a team with two gold glove caliber shortstops. Wisdom or Busch or Madrigal or a concrete block could play 3B and you have an excellent infield. Really just anyone but Morel. Because a concrete block can’t launch an errant throw into the first base dugout.

There is no way Matt Mervis is on the opening day roster. There is very little chance he gets enough AAA PAs to earn a call up unless there are more injuries and failures than any of us care to consider. He is an afterthought. He won’t even be protected or taken in the rule 5.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miles-mastrobuoni/20017/splits?season=0&position=3B&split=2.6 11 for 33 is a .333 BA there wasn’t much slug or obp on top of it, but the numbers you cited don’t make the point that September ‘23 was less than “strong” as Miles Mastroboni months go.

Morel is your DH. Morel getting reps at 3B will not be fruitful.

I don’t think it was so much a misread, I don’t think he could have gotten more for Bellinger if he had signed in, say, December. Boras was hoping the market would change or develop and there was little downside to waiting. It did not develop and so here we are.

This is beyond it for Mervis. The Dom Smith deal was it for Mervis.

Boo. Well this should get the market moving at least /s

I’ve held a rather extreme version of this view. I stated here occasionally that I don’t think they were spending big until the Heyward contract was gone. And that even when they did they’d stay under luxury tax. It’s gone now (except the deferred money). I don’t think they want to get into another one like it with Belli.

Big question in my mind. If Scott Boras had been Andre Dawson’s agent, would the universe have folded in on itself and disappeared?

Lost the black hole at 1B, picked up PCA/Busch. Even if there are significant developmental bumps (and holding out hope that that the nincompoopery on the basepaths is over) that pair has to be better than Hosmer/Mancini, and will have a much shorter leash if they are not. Remember, this was a 59-47 team from June on, and that includes the bullpen abuse under Ross leading to a 12-16;September. Even with the meltdown, that’s a 90 win team over a full season. This team is leaps ahead in bullpen depth and has a manager that can manage a bullpen. Ross was to bullpens what Dusty Baker was to starting rotations. In fact, my biggest concern on the team is “did Rossy irreparably damage Leiter et al?” So now, ostensibly better than the 90-win-pace team we fell in love with. That’s assuming the Bellinger signing. So I guess I’m saying a wash ain’t so bad.

Part of this is the additional benefit of having them in their prime when they are most athletic. Prime has moved younger because of the better development systems you describe. Lock them up through age 30 when they 'lose a step' and are now past prime. You get the added benefit of speed both on the basepaths and in the field. Rule changes have made this even more valuable. Monster contracts after 30 will become rarer. The game is changing and the rule changes benefit young players and thus owners. This is what we are seeing this offseason. Because of this there will be an adjustment to the "years of control" and arb process in the next CBA. "You value younger players more? Then pay them!"

Patterson Pie. I'm not counting on PCA to be anything. Also, he's a nincompoop.

Changing definitions does, in fact, change facts. That’s why there are so many conflicting “studies” out there on everything from “are eggs good for you” to gender dysphasia. You change definitions and metrics, you change conclusions. Of all places, a baseball board that has gone from measuring success in pitcher wins and RBI to appreciating advanced metrics should be a place where this is understood.

There is unequivocally always massive pressure from union to take the highest contract.

Geovanny Soto. Yet another reason to hate the lack of nesting quotes.

Leiter could be your primary lefty (even though he's a righty) with those splits.

I really think the biggest problem with the bullpen last year was usage. Add to that that some of the young guys were figuring it out last year and will contribute. Plus new monsters figuring it out this year. For example, I expect Little to be the closer by the end of the year. I think a lot of you will be disappointed with the reliever signing(s). I think they will be bet hedges against all of the internal options failing. Look for them to lean heavily on Cuas, Almonte, and the mainstays from last year, while leaving a crack for someone new to elbow their way in.

I see a big potential for a right handed opener if we have three lefty starters. I would love to see Assad opening for Wicks. Or straight piggy back them allowing each to go through the order 1 1/2 - 2 times depending on matchups. (ie if the number 7 hitter is a lefty, bring Wicks in then. I trust Counsell to do this well more than just about anyone.