Bull

"You're going to look back in 30-40 years and say there was only one Shoshei Ohtani" I feel like this is true but not in the way the author maybe meant. I think it's going to be true in a Glenallen Hill, Rob Deer, Aroldis Chapman, Dwight Gooden, even Kerry Wood kind of way rather than a Barry Bonds, Mike Trout, Nolan Ryan kind of way. I don't think his crazy skills will translate into counting stat greatness or even a long enough period of rate-stat greatness for history to take notice. Like I'll be sitting in my hovering rocking chair sipping on imitation iced tea supplement 42 and I'll start jabbering about Shoshei Ohtani. My grandkids will stick their heads out of the hatch of their sensory immersion game cube (trademark) buried in the floor and say, "who?", and my son will say, "honey, time to give the old man his morphine/propofol patch. He's babbling again". I'll fade off into a hallucination of my personal field of dreams as I crap myself.

Yeah, but what if he is....? We could trade him at the deadline and sneak under that luxury tax threshold.

Michael Cerami makes a solid point on Cubs talk podcast (Jeff Nelson filling in for Kaplan). He says the Cubs will either win less than 75 or more than 95. If they're in the middle of the pack they will be sellers to get under the tax cap and position them to spend 2021. We all know the impact of three-peat luxury tax offense. I'm not sure I agree with him in the final analysis. I think the guys that step in for Heyward, Chatwood, Willy or even Bryant will not be bad enough to turn an 85 win team into a 75 win team over the last two months of the season. But if you adjust that to either over 90 wins or under 80, I think he has a point.

I recognize all the individual words. I'm just having trouble seeing how they connect to each other.

Every time I see a new post in this thread I think there’s been a trade. /s

I wonder how much of it is finally getting face-to-face time. Like teams and agents work through the broad strokes of a deal throughout the offseason, but it doesn't get finished until the player and team are in a room together. Another thing is that most players cut off negotiations at the start of the season. Baseball execs love nothing more than doing jack horsefeathers until the moment before they absolutely have to. It also has a lot to do with the timing of arbitration hearings. Which timing is AWFUL. They need to do arb near the beginning of the offseason so that teams know what they're dealing with.

This would require billions of dollars in booth renovations. No money to field a winning team until 2095.

Pitchers don't suck at hitting because they don't work on it enough, they suck at it because hitting his hard and pitching gets better and better. Scrappy McJunkball could scratch out a hit or two against the scrubs that pitched in yesteryear, not because he put in the time and effort. Except that in high school (and travel ball), the pitchers are often also the best hitters, because they're the best athletes on the team. So pitchers don't inherently suck at hitting, they just get asked to stop doing it the second they turn pro It’s not because they get asked to stop doing it, it’s because they face world class hurlers instead of that guy from River City high. It’s the same reason Michael Jordan couldn’t hit. Just because you the best ever at shooting a large inflated ball into a metal hoop, doesn’t mean you can hit a small hard ball with a stick at an world class level. Pitching is an entirely different skill than hitting.

Pro Trading Kris Bryant Because It's Dumb And We're Bored Trading kRis Is Bad and Ultimately iNEffectual TRIBUNE

Unfortunately, it is all we have.

Plus some of those core position players are theoretically moving into the peak of their prime. It’s hard to imagine improvement with some, but Contreras, Schwarber, Bryant and Baez are theoretically yet to/about to peak while Happ, Almora, Bote could/should also be improving. Rizzo and Heyward will turn 31 this year however and are in danger of precipitous decline. Players peak earlier than you're thinking. All those guys are pure decline age. Everyone declines forever. There are no peaks. I thought we had backed the peak age back from 31 years ago to 28 today. And just because you peaked in high school doesn’t mean we all did. Also, if peak is earlier than 28, why are we upset they want to trade Bryant? I mean, I am, but maybe I need to take a step back.

I'm confused about "still" being the best team? I mean its certainly debatable but our 2nd best reliever right now is Rowan Wick and our position player and rotation depth is not great. Still have the top line talent and with solid seasons from the core we should be right up there, but I find it hard to call us the best team at this point. From a talent perspective, I think we still have more projected production than any other team in the division. I don't really buy into the theory that the whole is less than the sum of the parts with this team. I just think we experienced negative variance last year and that if you played that season 100 times, we'd win the division most of those times. None of the teams has added much and both MIL and STL have had a major subtraction or two. For better or worse, we're basically exactly the same team minus Hamels and a few relievers. While there's not much in the pen you'd point to and write in for 70 appearances of great pitching, there are a fair amount of quality arms that simply lack the longer track record that makes you feel warm and fuzzy. But there's a lot of flexibility and I've got a fair bit of confidence that they can put together a pretty good performance with what they have. The bench was awful last year, but those are actually players that have a decent track record of not being complete garbage until last year. Bote and Caratini are fine to excellent depth. Descalso, Kemp and Almora may not set the world on fire, but they shouldn't sum to a -2.0 WAR, either. The last few guys on everyone's bench look much the same. The overall offense should be somewhere between good to excellent. The big factors there are Happ & Hoerner. If Happ can provide anything like what he did in the second half, he's a well above average CF and our outfield is suddenly looking a lot better. If Nico can reproduce his quality of contact from last year and raise his walk rate to what he did in the minors, he's a very solid piece of the puzzle, too. Them producing well is huge because then you limit the number of at bats you're giving to the end of the bench. Then you've still got Bryant, Rizzo, Schwarber, Contreras and Baez to anchor the offense. Darvish & Hendricks is a heck of a start to the rotation. There's interesting depth there with Mills, Rea, Cotton, Alzolay, etc. And, yeah, that's all I'm going to say here. Plus some of those core position players are theoretically moving into the peak of their prime. It’s hard to imagine improvement with some, but Contreras, Schwarber, Bryant and Baez are theoretically yet to/about to peak while Happ, Almora, Bote could/should also be improving. Rizzo and Heyward will turn 31 this year however and are in danger of precipitous decline.

I think this is because I beetlejuiced him a few weeks ago. Beware the return of Antonio Alfonseca.

It's fine for stretches but then you lose your most consistent middle of the order bat. Plus he's just a terrible baserunner. You're still putting a guy who gets on base the most in the spot that gets the most ABs. Stack Rizzo/KB/Schwarbs 1-3 vs RHP and let them get on base and slug in front of Javy, Willy, etc. Good things will happen if you have your 1-3 hitters consistently getting on base. What good is a "middle of the order" bat if he has a guy hitting in front of him with a sub .300 OBP like Rizzo and KB have had for the last two years? Get some certainty up there and let the rest trickle down essentially. I'm not too worried about his base running, it sucks but it's not like he needs to start stealing or anything. Who is this “KB” you speak of?

We could call him Reinal as a hat tip to the days of Rnny Ceen and Rey rnez. Reinal failure

Consider the person posting Just highlighting how ridiculous the lengths are that people need to go to to defend AA.

You have to realize that he is just entering his age 26 season. He has a proven track record and his best days are ahead of him. Arismendy Alcantara only played through his age 25 season and posted a -.5 CAREER fWAR, a number Almora is well past even given his disastrous 2019. Pitching phenom Adbert Alzolay is just entering his age 25 season, but with a -.2 fWAR last year, he'd have to meet his steamer projections this year just to own a career 0 fWAR. Cubs legend Antonio Alfonseca had played only one season through age 25 and posted a whopping 0 fWAR. Almora has a career fWAR of 2.1 (2.4 bWAR) even after a down 2019. He projects to bounce back this year. Time will only tell if his career will endure as long as Alfonseca's 11 years of dominance (a career 2.2 fWAR through age 35 vs Albert's 2.1 through age 25) in this age of "next up" obsession with cost-controlled youngsters, but at this stage, he's clearly the better player. I know this is a small sample size, but its a scientific one. I think we can all agree that the data shows that Almora will be at least an above-average player, and possibly 75th percentile or above. I, for one, look forward to giving him the chance to turn it around.

And, if I remember correctly it will be their second year in a row. Red Sox on pace to go over three years in a row. These are the only two teams to exceed it more than one year running. Have the Dodgers or Giants gone over back to back or three times in recent history? Someone else will know better than me I'm sure, but I didn't think so.

Yeah that's the part I'm mad about to. But this whole league wide collusion thing...I assume the team that would trade for him is planning on paying him, right? League-wide collusion except for the Yankees, who are some $50MM over the threshold. But then the Yankees have been a useful bogeyman for the small-market teams for nearly 30 years. And, if I remember correctly it will be their second year in a row. Red Sox on pace to go over three years in a row. These are the only two teams to exceed it more than one year running.

Trading him now so that they don't have to look cheap for not paying him in 2 years. Also some nonsense about how they tried really hard to get him to sign an extension but they couldn't so they had to try to make the team better by trading their best player. Yeah that's the part I'm mad about to. But this whole league wide collusion thing...I assume the team that would trade for him is planning on paying him, right? Provided it doesn't cause them to go over the luxury tax more than two years in a row.

I agree with you, but not the post you quoted. Teams have decided to treat the luxury tax as a salary cap. I think Ricketts is doing what he’s told. By....who? Who do you think is in charge here? The owners, in collusion. But I don’t think Ricketts has a lot of pull among them as fairly recent member of the club.

Yes....Ricketts wants the Cubs underneath the lux tax. That's what is driving this. Very frustrating. I agree with you, but not the post you quoted. Teams have decided to treat the luxury tax as a salary cap. I think Ricketts is doing what he’s told.

It’s pretty clear nothing about you wants to be positive. That said, you’re in a pretty good place. Your negativity is a perfect fit for this cubs offseason. I may even join you!

I know everyone wants to get paid, but I could see this as Rizzo reaching out to take a longer, lower contract to “help” the Cubs keep Bryant. I think Rizzo is as nostalgic as we are and then some, Bobby Bonilla him. Pay him 3 million a year forever. Pay his great-grandkids 3 million a year until they die.