Bull

Also, for what it's worth, both Dansby and Nico had top 30 in MLB WAR (position players only) with OPS+ that were sub 100 last year. That's what you can hope for from the Nincompoop. If he stops being negative value on the basepaths.

4.0 bWAR would have made him 43rd among position players last year. 2.6 top 102. You expect him to consistently be a top 100 position player in the league over a long enough stretch to qualify as "year in and year out"? I'd say that's very high expectations. I'd put the list of position players to achieve that range every year over a, say, 7-year span is exceedingly short. And to further my previous point, if he achieves 2.0 dWar that .6 oWar is Myles Straw, he of 69 OPS+ getting to 4.0 (2.0 plus 2.0) has him similar to Kiermier. So you're saying his best case is Kiermier. A 104 OPS+ in his BEST year.

I think you’d better be able to dialog with some of the other posters if you start with WAR and work backwards. The top team by CF WAR last year was 3.2. The fifth best was 2.0. Let’s call that range clealy above average for CF. Seattle’s Julio Rodriguez had an OPS+ of 128. He had 5.8 OWAR and a 0.0 DWAR. He is an all bat CF who should probably be in a corner OF. Think when Happ was playing CF for awhile. Luis Robert Jr was at 128 OPS+ (with fewer ABs) and was at 4.4 OWar, and 1.1 DWAR. Kiermier was 2.0 and 2.2 at 104 OPS. A really valuable player. You put PCA at 128 OPS+ with his defense, you might be looking at a 8+ WAR. (Rodriguez” 5.8 plus Kiermiers 2.2) I think you see that’s unrealistic expectations. The ceiling? Maybe. But certainly not the median expectation.

That’s silly. Too early to tell if he’s a bust. He’s a nincompoop but that doesn’t mean he’s a bust. Rizzo was a nincompoop too, but he made up for it in other ways. PCAs floor is Billy Hamilton. Teach him (in AAA) not to get TOOTBLANed and he’ll be fine. Like that’s the only lesson. That and work on laying off the high fastball. But if he can’t quite master #2, he can still be serviceable if he can master #1.

More nincompoopery

I’m just gonna say it. This well thought out post got no responses, but “trade Bellinger” did?

Andy Sisco for me.

What about the circumstances (near luxury tax, 4-6 near ready bats, Ricketts suggesting additional revenue would be required to add even before the Bellinger signing) causes you to hold out hope that they will add a bat?

PCA is a nincompoop. I don’t care if you do score. You do not run through a Willie Harris stop sign if you’re a rookie trying to make the team in spring training.

That seems unnecessarily and aggressively dismissive. And disingenuous. The amount of business and therefore tax revenue the Cubs bring to the city certainly exceeds this amount. I don't see how you can represent this as taking away from the schools unless there's a detail I missed. Also, this is politically divisive. I thought we were trying to limit that. You set out food for the troll.

A lot of the projections have Bellinger regressing to about a 2.5 WAR. Much of the discussion has focused on a perceived overachievement when actual results were compared to the batted ball profile and higher-than-typical BABIP last year. I wanted to break down why Bellinger was so good last year as compared to 2020-2022 and assess if last year was flukey, a new normal, or a step towards his pre-injury days. The first element to Cody's success last year was the shift ban. There were tons of articles last year on who would benefit the most from the shift ban BEFORE the season started, but surprisingly little reflection AFTER the season on who actually benefitted. Maybe some of you who pay for content on the analytical sites can dig up better info, but the most recent info I could find was a midseason article on MLB.com (I know, I know) It suggests that Bellinger was one of the top beneficiaries of extra hits due to the shift ban. This explains the increased BABIP and hedges against regression as the ban remains in place going forward. The second element is the change in approach. He particularly changed his approach on 0-2 counts. His contact rate, in-zone contact rate, expected average, and expected slg. were significantly up, and his average exit velo in 0-2 counts was significantly down. He also went opposite field more than ever down 0-2, and 1-2. This accounts for most of his "lack of hard hit balls" His hard hit percentage on 0-2 was 14.3 well down from both prime Cody in 2019 (hereafter PC19) of 47.8% and from Crap Cody in 2021 (hereafter CC21) of 29.4%. But ahead in the count was a different story. Through 3-1 his HH% was PC19: 38.5, CC21 27.3 and NC23 (new cody): 38.9. Through 3-0, PC19: 55.6, CC21:33.3% and NC23:45.5% It appears the lack of hard-hit percentage was when he was down in the count, which is something to love. Additionally, when up in the count his profile was more like Prime Cody, something we would love to see again. Then there's the injury. Most of the focus has been on the shoulder injury, but this guy https://www.prospectslive.com/prospects-live/2022/10/20/the-downfall-and-possible-resurrection-of-cody-bellinger suggested before last season that there was a change in mechanics due to a leg injury that exactly coincides with Bellingers fall off the cliff. If the Cubs fixed those mechanics last year, could we see a continued resurgence? Finally, the contract. Cody came back to the Cubs on a "prove it" deal. It seems he believes that he is destined for greater things this year. Of course, athletes have egos and I imagine former MVP's have among the biggest, but there may be something to the contract that suggests he thinks he's just going to get better. And it seems he is willing to keep getting better with the Cubs coaching staff. I believe that Bellinger is something different than what he was either in 2019 or 2021. I think he is more Anthony Rizzo than peak Bellinger and less Jason Heyward than his nadir suggests. I think 2023 is a great indication for 2024, and the predictions of regression are unfounded.

deleted to make new topic.

It took me longer than it should to realize you were talking about Matt and not Keegan.

If that's true you buried the lead in your previous post about the Giants and Twins If the Giants and Twins had offered more, then Cody chose the Cubs. If the Giants and Twins AND Jed had offered more, then Cody bet on himself.

Exactly. As I said, he's a defensive replacement infielder and superfluous on a team with two gold glove caliber shortstops. If Dansby needs a day off, you put Nico at short and Morel at 2B where he can't do too much damage with bad throws. Miles has options left. Put him in Iowa in case of an injury to Nico or Dansby.

You're working really hard here for comps. No need. He is the comp. He is a known commodity. The conversation should revolve around versions of Cody Bellinger. Was the early success last year an indication that the shoulder is finally healed and the late drop-off an indication of reinjury or fatigue? Is he a new thing that is defined by limited success last year, and he'll never return to MVP form? Is he *almost* back to full steam and we can hope for even more this year? Only time will tell, but the deal is good if he is last years CB and great if he continues to regain strength and return to MVP caliber at the plate.

My point is that he is what he is, and Sept was probably the best possible version of what he is. It was a “sting finish” exactly as the previous poster said. Don’t work too hard on this. He is a defensive replacement infielder. Any hitting is a bonus. My opinion is that he is superfluous on a team with two gold glove caliber shortstops. Wisdom or Busch or Madrigal or a concrete block could play 3B and you have an excellent infield. Really just anyone but Morel. Because a concrete block can’t launch an errant throw into the first base dugout.

There is no way Matt Mervis is on the opening day roster. There is very little chance he gets enough AAA PAs to earn a call up unless there are more injuries and failures than any of us care to consider. He is an afterthought. He won’t even be protected or taken in the rule 5.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/miles-mastrobuoni/20017/splits?season=0&position=3B&split=2.6 11 for 33 is a .333 BA there wasn’t much slug or obp on top of it, but the numbers you cited don’t make the point that September ‘23 was less than “strong” as Miles Mastroboni months go.

Morel is your DH. Morel getting reps at 3B will not be fruitful.

I don’t think it was so much a misread, I don’t think he could have gotten more for Bellinger if he had signed in, say, December. Boras was hoping the market would change or develop and there was little downside to waiting. It did not develop and so here we are.

This is beyond it for Mervis. The Dom Smith deal was it for Mervis.

Boo. Well this should get the market moving at least /s

I’ve held a rather extreme version of this view. I stated here occasionally that I don’t think they were spending big until the Heyward contract was gone. And that even when they did they’d stay under luxury tax. It’s gone now (except the deferred money). I don’t think they want to get into another one like it with Belli.

Big question in my mind. If Scott Boras had been Andre Dawson’s agent, would the universe have folded in on itself and disappeared?