You all realize most projects have this team around .500, and you can subtract one win from any early season projects thanks to the 0-2 start. i don't think that's how it works That's *exactly* how it works. Let's say you project a team to be .500. If they start out 0-2, you don't change your opinion of the team's abilities, but you can only apply it to the future. That .500 team should go 80-80 the rest of the year, finishing 80-82. If you think the team is going to be 81-81 going into the season and you don't change your mind at 0-2, then you are expecting them to go 81-79 the rest of the year. That's gambler's fallacy.