Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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The B-Squared show is on the air!
Hairyducked Idiot replied to B-Squared's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
You guys have definitely gained a fan. That's what sports talk radio should be. -
I've always wanted to see the team keep a true mop-up guy around. Some league-minimum arm who has no future and can just soak up the abuse on his arm every time the game gets out of hand. I thought we were going to use Kevin Hart in that role, but he kept showing up in close games. Samardzija would be a good choice this year?
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The problem with Marshall pitching as the long-man is that he almost always will be pitching low-leverage innings. He's way too good for that in this bullpen.
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Let's have more people complaining about the quality of posts without attempting to make some sort of interesting post, okay?
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The B-Squared show is on the air!
Hairyducked Idiot replied to B-Squared's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
I have to admit, this is much better quality than I expected all-around. Audio quality is great, both hosts are articulate, and the commentary is solid. I'm enjoying it. -
The B-Squared show is on the air!
Hairyducked Idiot replied to B-Squared's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Anything to avoid working while I'm on the clock... -
Yours wasn't going to be as awesome as this one. Don't stand in the way of awesome.
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And? The fact that he's one-for-one now just means he'll likely have multiple+1 from here on out.
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Every projection worth nothing should be changed after two games if the team performed a full game different than expectations. If a one-game swing isn't big enough to change your projection, what is? Two games? Four? I'm not sure why you'd draw the line higher than one game. On a similar note, Carlos Zambrano will have a hard time putting up another 120ish ERA+ season or an ERA under 4, just because of what he did on Monday.
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What you are talking about is the variance in all baseball projections, though. Doesn't mean we should stop projecting.
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Best game thread ever?
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Hawks win their fifth in a row. That's all that matters.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-8-10
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Outshined_One's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Who should we take first overall in the 2011 draft? -
That's close enough Blues. Would love to see them empty the net down 2 and have Versteeg get his fifth point.
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Slightly incorrect. The law of averages says that the most likely result as you roll more and more times is that the average *approaches* 3.5 but doesn't quite reach it. Fine, so then it's a split of single hair. It's hardly a worthwhile application in this context. It's precisely worthy of application. The difference between the expected average after the bad start and the ordinary expected average shrinks over time, and with an infinite number of rolls it eventually becomes infinitesimal. But we don't have an infinite number of games left. We have 160. So we know how big the difference is expected to be over our sample: About one win's worth.
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True, but the differences are small enough to be within rounding. If you wanted to project a team to some fractional number of wins, that would have to be taken into account.
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Slightly incorrect. The law of averages says that the most likely result as you roll more and more times is that the average *approaches* 3.5 but doesn't quite reach it.
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If I asked you how many heads you would project to get from a fair coin flipped 162 times, you'd say "81"* If the first two coins came up tails and I said "now how many?" you'd say "80"* * - assuming you understand probability You aren't changing your opinion about the coin or its abilities to come up heads. But you still slide your projection down one.
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Most of the good stuff is people hanging out on replacementlevel.com 's comments.
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The part that you're missing is that nobody is disagreeing with Kyle in an absolute/technical sense. Truffle did. That's what started all this :)
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So there is some percentage chance that any given loss will be the difference between playoffs and no playoffs. While it's true that an 0-2 start is far too small a sample to change any projections about the team's true talent level, the odds of making the playoffs have now dropped a little. That's important.
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The reason it is misapplied is because people expect it to act as a cosmic force where past deviations are cancelled out by future deviations in the opposite direction. I understand your point. I just don't think it's practical in this scenario. It's a finite season. 2 losses in a period where most teams would expect one win should always subtract 1 win from a team's projected totals. I don't know what the odds are of one win making the difference for a playoff spot or not, but it's definitely non-zero. The Cubs' playoff odds are a little worse than they were before the season started. Similarly, any team that started out 2-0 can add one win to their projected total.
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The reason it is misapplied is because people expect it to act as a cosmic force where past deviations are cancelled out by future deviations in the opposite direction.
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Go Detroit!
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The law of averages is usually misapplied and turns into gambler's fallacy. You expect a .500-team to play .500 for the future. You don't expect them to play better to make up for playing worse before.