It's not just the contracts, it's the lack of premium talent. The 2011 Red Sox, who won 90 games and missed the playoffs, had five position players with a better fWAR than our best. The Cardinals had four. Pitching-wise, we have Garza and a few other useful arms. Starlin Castro still gives up too much of his value in the field, as does Ramirez. The latter keeps getting worse with age, the former will probably get better eventually, but there's no guarantee it happens right away. The Red Sox brass interview talked about this yesterday too, but it's getting harder and harder to build a team with older free agent talent. Teams are getting really savvy about maximizing their six years of team control and also trying to lock guys down when they are worth it beyond that. So, yes, the Cubs might be a playoff team quickly. But that's going to have to involve having a very high success rate in pursuing high-profile free agents, not having any of them go Crawford on you, and in general having a decently lucky 2012 on the field. That's an awful lot of moving parts, and I don't think it's unreasonable for an outside observer to think that 2014+ is the most likely time frame for the next Cubs playoff appearance.