Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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1.1 oWAR in 147 games extrapolates to 1.21 in 162. He would have needed 0.8 dWAR/162 to pass the 2.0 threshold. That's pretty lofty, I don't think any metrics have him there at 3b.
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People who have put up a 2-fWAR season in MLB: Ryan Theriot Darwin Barney Rich Hill Lenny Harris Shawn Estes Ian Stewart People who have peaked at 1.5 fWAR: Ian Stewart Neifi Perez
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They aren't really attacking me. They are just arguing their points. Nobody's come along and made some pointless dismissive post yet or anything. We're all just talking baseball here, that's what we came here to do. I haven't ruled out attacking their mothers yet, anyway. Or at least not Ian Stewart's mother. I could probably slap her for producing such a bad third baseman as a son.
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Stewart has never, ever in his career put up 2.0 WAR. The only time he's ever had a season that would have surpassed a 2.0 WAR pace if we extrapolate it to 162 games was 2008, and he needed a .362 BABIP to get there. And that's if we only use fWAR and not bWAR. And now we're saying he "should be able to provide" that very unlofty total that he's barely ever, if ever, been able to reach? I wanted a platoon that I thought had a downside of 1-2 WAR. That's Stewart's upside.
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No, I don't, because I find that chance to be so slim as to not be worth considering. The BA ranking was seven years ago, based on one great season at mid-A ball where he showed all his current skill set plus a .319 batting average. The idea that he's going to hit for any sort of average should be a distant memory at this point. As far as I'm concerned, his upside is that he returns to his glory days with the Rockies: a nearly 2-WAR player. An upside of an average starter, with two major red flags (his inability to make contact and the wrist injury)? All kinds of pass.
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I'm still waiting for a compelling argument in favor of it. So far, I've got: 1) He used to be sort of close to average. 2) Maybe his terrible season last year didn't mean anything. 3) He's left-handed. 4) Our scouts see something in him they like. 5) Baseball America had a boner for him half a decade ago. If it's early February and you've spent all offseason trying to dig up a credible third baseman and you haven't found anyone, then maybe you scrape up a busted prospect or injury reclamation for the league minimum. You don't settle on a guy who's both as your starting 3b on Dec. 8, knowing he's going to make a couple of million in arbitration.
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That's funny, I can't believe there's a significant portion of this board who are glad our starting 3b for 2012 is coming off a sub-replacement season and we are hoping he bounces back to maybe average.
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Okay, I promise right now to endlessly praise Epster the first time they make a move I really love, which I'm sure will be soon. Because I hate this one so, so, so much. I would have rather had Ramirez back on a long-term deal at this point.
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Okay, agree to disagree on the park factor thing, acknowledging I was wrong on the platoon thing. That leaves us with what he's actually done. He's averaged 1.7 fWAR and 1.0 bWAR per 162 starts at the MLB level. He's always been a high-K player, which is a collapse-prone skillset, and he's just had a total collapse season. He's also coming off a type of injury that has been (anecdotally, at least) known to linger with hitters the next year. So my questions are these: As a starter, why would we want him at all? As a backup, why would we want to pay a couple of million to a guy like that when our organizational strength was supposed to be a glut of guys who could do that for 400k?
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Why not? It's 700 PAs of home/road and he still shows a small split. That's plenty of room for variance in there. A little positive variance on the road, a little negative variance at home, and boom, you are right where you'd expect. I'm open to alternative theories, though. Is there something about Stewart's offensive skill set that makes him unable to take advantage of Coors Field's beneficial properties?
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Yes. We had this discussion during the Kemp/Braun MVP debate. A narrow split doesn't absolve a player of playing in a friendly home environment. So then the knocks of being helped by a home park or not "taking advantage" of it become two angles that can be used to support whichever side of an argument you choose to take? How convenient. No. There's pretty much only one way to take it: Adjust for home park whether the splits show it or not.
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Both. I don't see how those are contradictory. The fact that his Coors numbers aren't wildly above his road numbers doesn't mean they wouldn't be even worse without them. This was pretty much universally agreed on (though in reverse with a pitcher's park) during the Kemp/Braun MVP discussion. But I suppose I'm just being contrarian by bringing it up now. You got me. For some reason I was thinking a normal split is more like 60/40. Point withdrawn.
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Yes. We had this discussion during the Kemp/Braun MVP debate. A narrow split doesn't absolve a player of playing in a friendly home environment.
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So he's done a bad job of taking advantage of his home park. Point for him? His road numbers are 229/309/427 despite being hidden in a platoon. Hooray?
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Oops, you are right. He comes out a tiny bit above average as a 3b. I'll revise my opinion of him upward to "adequate defensive 3b who can't really hit."
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In the minors, he spent a couple years at AAA Colorado Springs, a ridiculously hitter-friendly environment. Then in the majors, he spent his home games at Coors Field with its 110 park factors. The Rockies have been giving him a large percentage of his at-bats against his favorable platoon matchup every year. This isn't trolling or giving two poops about what everyone else thinks. I really don't like Ian Stewart as a player. If everyone decides tomorrow that they agree, then I'll still really dislike him as a player.
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And plays sub-average defense. as evidenced by his plus ratings via UZR, TZ, DRS...really every advanced fielding metric (you're coming off as an ignorant, pompous ass right now) UZR has him at -3.4 fielding runs for his career, Baseball-Reference has him at -0.3 dWAR for his career. I guess Baseball Prospectus does have him as 0.1 FRAA for his career.
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And plays sub-average defense. He also molests collies in his free time. And keeps hiding himself in the most hitter-friendly situations possible to fool people into thinking he's adequate.
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There's about a .030 lean towards home in OPS over his career. Pretty neutral, especially for Rox players. Good to know. How have park factors compared between Wrigley and Coors over the last 5-10 years? Coors about 110-112, Wrigley mostly neutral but fluctuating a lot year-to-year.
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And plays sub-average defense.
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The more I read about him and look at him, the more Weathers kind of intrigues me. You can't teach stuff, and I don't mind turning a sure mediocrity like LeMahieu into a long-shot talent like Weathers.
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I'm also annoyed to find out that we're taking a $5 million hit to Pena. But yes, I have a big dislike for the little overpays. It adds up.
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Not acquire Ian Stewart.
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Nobody is freaking out. Well, maybe jersey, but he always does. I'm a little annoyed and a little concerned, but that's a long long way from freaking out.
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I didn't say it was. I said "I wonder." Because we only have a handful of major holes to fill, and it seems like we just filled one of them with that type of player. I'm mainly worried because we do kinda seem to be running out of money. I really, really hate these little $2 million overpays that add up and rob a roster of its potential.