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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    Hell, I'll go one farther. There's three bad football teams coming up on the schedule. There's like a 3% they take up on Oct. 16 at 3-3. There's a much larger chance that they're 0-6, of course.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    Defense only gave up 20 to Baker Mayfield bucs. It's not good, but it's not *so* bad that they can't possibly beat other bad NFL teams.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    oh hey it's finally a must-win
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    This game is perfectly winnable.
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    Yeah. That's not surprising. Kane was considered a weak-ish no. 1. Not terrible by 10A standards, but not on Bedard's level as a prospect.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    It is, in fact, just bad luck. My favorite go-to example is the 2003 Tigers, who lost 119 games and had an awful bullpen but still managed to 19-18 in one-run games. When a team is experiencing negative variance, it's really tempting to say "ah-hah, the reason is all the things they've done that I've disagreed with" like not calling up some prospect that everyone wants up, or the manager doing whatever managers do that people don't like, or employing Ian Stewart. While those things certainly don't help, and the Cubs would be better off with a better bullpen, they really did just experience negative variance. So it goes.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    But that's historically not true. Bullpen quality does not correlate particularly well with record in one-run games. A bad bullpen is just as likely to turn a 3-run-lead into a nailbiting one-run win, or a one-run loss into a multi-run loss.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    nah, i pretty much agree. This is a team on the upswing and losing a bunch of close games isn't an intrinsi ability, it's just part of the variance-heavy nature of the sport. I think we're overrating our near-ready hitting prospets because of Iowa, but in general I think this team is both good and on a positive trajectory.
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    lul
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    I used to be in the "coaches make qbs not the other way around" camp, but I think Brady/Hoodie is a pretty strong data point against it
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    Losing close games is more luck than skill, regardless of how frustrating it is.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    more plz
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    I won't pretend to be enough of a scout to know the difference between a future good QB and a future bad one in college, and even the pro scouts don't seem to be very good at it, but if we assume they actually hit their ceiling, Drake Maye is the tall pocket passer I've been dreaming of forever. Williams is more the Mahomes-esque improvisational type that everyone wants these days. Maye's scouting report reads like the guy who is going to drop back, read the defense and deliver a strike on time. (He's still athletic enough to be useful running and scrambling if you *must* have that sort of thing). https://www.profootballnetwork.com/drake-maye-draft-scouting-2024/ I've pretty much got my heart set on getting one of them.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    Missing three starting offensive linemen is probably part of why they can't run the ball. Which shouldn't matter because running the ball is stupid and you don't need to be good at it. I think what we are seeing is a football team with a critical mass of failure. You can't do your job on a football team if your teammates aren't doing theirs. There's probably some number of starters who could be useful players in a different situation, but it's hard to tell which ones those are. I'm not usually one to root for draft position, especially this early, but there's just nothing redeemable about this team. Normally I would say that what you lose in bad development from key young assets isn't worth it, but I don't really care about most of this teams young assets. Gimme that 0-17 and burn the whole thing to the ground to try to get the stench out before Williams gets here
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    I find it nice that they can just be a regular sports team that sometimes has bad things happen just like every other sports team without it being folded into the Curse Mythos
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    why would something good happen when something bad could happen instead
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    I am kind of coming around on next year's QBs. Williams looks Mahomes-ian on his college take, and Maye could be the tall pocket passer I've been begging for forever.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    I think there's a critical mass as a football team where enough bad players on the field make it impossible for any good players to do their job., and the Bears are definitely at that. So it's possible that some random dudes that look terrible are actually good, like maybe some of the secondary or the linebackers or tight ends or something. But I'm not really worried about Peterman or Bagent coming in and winning games. Bagent getting some starts would be hilarious and fun, and I know there's been weirder things happening in sports like Kurt Warner or Tom Brady, but what I saw from him in the pre-season against fourth-string defenses will get eaten alive on a real sunday.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    Yeah, there's that hysteria I was talking about. It's just weird.
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    1 > 0
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    You know, I've found that there's absolutely no correlation between how hysterical you get at my takes and whether I end up being right in the long run. *shrug*
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    Screw defense. Glad we got a good tackle.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    The answer is that PFF grades are a pseudoscientific, black-box rng and everyone in the football fandom world should stop paying attention to them.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    I look at Williams highlights and I see a lot of wide open guys and long, slow developing plays. Maybe I just want too much from a college qb
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    Ok fine I saw a doomer stat on Reddit and didn't check it
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