Hairyducked Idiot

Bagent looks better than I expected. He's not forcing any potential turnovers and those two third down conversions were NFL-quality. But mostly, he's proving *exactly* how much Fields holds back everyone else. Only one sack, plays being checked at the line when it's the right call, quick-hit throws being executed on-time, every receiver getting a chance to make plays.

In Buckeye Nation's wildest, wettest dreams is Fields Cutler.

100% yes.

That was a *brutal* call imo.

Yeah, he literally hasn't been asked to complete a single intermediate throw, let alone a long one. But he's a fantastic contrast for showing how much Fields' dysfunction was hurting the rest of the offense's abilities to do their job.

Huge third down because Bagent switched to the check at the line. QB is so important.

That third down conversion by Bagent wasn't half bad.

I really want to see a side by side of Fields and Bagent executing the same WR screens. The speed at which the ball gets out seems noticeably different.

This was a good enough watch that I'm at least a little worried about our pick from them if he starts to look better in the second half. Hopefully they fire sale. I still don't feel like we missed out on him because he's so teeny tiny, but he's starting to show that elite anticipation and even made some throws outside of the numbers. The first pass he gets off, I think it starts about 2 minutes in, was so ridiculous on anticipation. At the moment of he decides to make the throw, the receiver is double-bracketed and a third defender is in the area the throw is aiming for. But by time the ball gets there, it's wide open.

Holding the ball a long time and extending plays isn't by default a bad thing. A lot of very good QBs do it. Fields problems come mostly from turning down open receivers and a bit from slow execution on dropbacks and short throws. If he was holding the ball for four seconds then finding the guy who broke down the defense and hitting him, it wouldn't be a problem. He could make all the same decisions 25% faster and they would still be the wrong decisions. The length of the plays is the symptom of a QB not processing NFL reads, not the cause. I think they *are* calling plays to his strengths, there's just not a lot you can do. Call the deep and intermediate throws and pray this is the day he feels like throwing them and doesn't just eat sacks, and mix in screens because it's his least objectionable short play. Designed run when you have to but use them sparingly because he's prone to both fumbles and injuries. What else is there? He's brutal with hot reads. His slow dropback and release screws with quick timing throws like slants. I hate his rpo execution. Play action takes away processing time. Rollouts are gimmicks that make life easier for the defense. What's left?

There's only 16 above-average starting QBs and the great ones tend to last for a long, long time. So you're looking at 1-2 QBs who even become above-average, let alone great, out of every draft class. You have to take in an unreasonably dense amount of information with a wall of large men in front of you and *instantly* know where the ball should go on and in what timing and you have to shift in the pocket to the right spot to do it. NFL plays are freaking *complicated*. Most of them have some sort of check where they can be switched to a different play at the line depending on the look the defense gives. Many of them involve different sets of routes in different parts of the field and it's up to the QB to decide which set of routes to read their progression through. And the routes themselves often change post-snap. Every time you get something right, defenses are taking note of it and will be trying to fool you by presenting you that same look but finding a sneaky way to take away the thing that worked. I believe the reason so many QBs bust is that it's just impossible to tell who really has that ability to process information of that complexity at that speed on the field until they get here, because college football is just nowhere close to replicating the experience. I've been watching a lot of Caleb Williams video and I totally get why the scouts rave about him, but a lot of the stuff he is rewarded for doing will be punished severely in the pros. He will have to reinvent himself and adapt If he can, you have Mahomes 2.0, and if you can't he's a bust and you wasted your pick and 2-4 years. And that's true for every other QB you could draft. But if you can find a QB who can do it, it breaks the sport. Every offensive play is entirely in their hands, and they can make up for almost everyone else's shortcomings. If you take out their first year as starters and their last year before retirement, Manning, Brady and Rodgers played 50 NFL seasons and 49 of them ended with winning records. It didn't matter who the coaches were, or the offensive line, or the receivers, or the defenses.

The FIelds thing is a whole thing, but I don't super care about our running backs being out. Davis hurts. If Wright plays, the whole thing feels salvageable. If we're running a line of Borom/Jenkins/Patrick/Whitehair/Collins in front of the pride of Shepherd University, then we might be getting shut out.

I think there's a good chance we get as close a look at this scenario as we could ever get starting next draft

and I don't think it's "environment" either. Newton went to a Panthers team without a 600-yard receiver and won an MVP dragging them to the SB in less than five years. Stafford went to the 0-16 Lions and had a pretty good career. The good ones make their environment and coaches look better than they are, not the other way around.

I just can't agree with this. I don't think the historical record bears it out. Martz never found another Warner. Hoodie can't find another Brady. Jordan Love sucks. I think that some QBs have it and others don't, and it's *very* hard to tell who is who before they get to the NFL because it's just so much faster and more complicated than college, but I don't think teams are out there ruining guys who would have had it in other scenarios.

I'm gonna take a lot of crap for this, and so be it: I don't think there's a problem with Getsy's game plans. And I don't think nagy was all that bad. I'm down to crucify our coaching staff for the lack of assignment discipline, but the game planning and playcalling? There's just no good way to call plays for a bad qb, just like there's no good way to manage a bad bullpen. Maybe Andy Reid has cracked the formula, but no one else has, everywhere else it's a QB league way more than it's a coaching league. Bellichek started looking like an idiot the moment Brady left town. The Packers mysteriously started having o-line problems the day love took over. If Williams comes in here and balls, whoever the coach is willing look like a genius.

This is my second-favorite entry of the season in the "Former NFL players do film breakdown and absolutely crap all over the Bears offense" after the infamous week 1 QB school video. They only do a handful of plays but it's so brutal. Two where they just absolutely rip Justin Fields up and down for not being able to read a defense and make the correct decision, and a few where the offensive line repeatedly pees down their leg facing the same blitz because they can't get all 5 guys running the same basic blocking scheme, someone keeps missing assignments. The first time they show the blitz, Wright misses the line call and blocks right while the other four guys block left. This leaves the DE free to come straight through with only the RB to pick him up, which disrupts Fields' throw and causes the INT. The second time, the Vikings bring the exact same blitz, the C again calls left but somehow decides to be the only guy ignoring his own call, leaving the DT to go straight through and disrupt Bagent, leading to the fumble-6. The third time, they *finally* pick it up correctly, the LT doesn't do a great job of maintaining space but he's not actually beat, and Bagent throws his mysterious air punt to end the game.

I'm catching up on Williams' game against ND, and it was definitely a bad one, but I'm kinda talking myself back onto his hype train. I think he's getting away with a *lot* of BS that won't work in the NFL and, like every other QB prospect, you don't know how he'll react to NFL speed until he faces NFL speed. He's certainly confident in his ability to get the ball into windows that pro defenders will turn into picks. He also really likes to try to muscle off hits in the pocket, and NFL-sized defenders are going to maul him if he doesn't get over that. Watch the play that begins at the 1:30 mark. That's the kind of play that can thrive in the NFL. He drops back, beats the blitz from the right by moving to his left, then zips out a ridiculous throw to his right without ever needing to reset his feet. That's the kind of play that makes your receivers *and* offensve line look better than they are. I wish he were a smidge taller though. I don't think he's Fieldsian anymore, even though I see why it gets brought up. He keeps his eyes downfield and when he sees something he likes, even if it's not much of a window at all, the ball is out fast. He's not only willing to hit NFL open receivers, he's capable of going past that into "throwing guys open" where he takes reasonably well-covered guys and puts the ball in a place where only they can get to it.

Fell on his thumb and dislocated it. It's not broken, so that's good. It depends on the extent of the ligament damage. If it requires surgery, which the Bears haven't ruled out, that's 2 months to season-ending. If it doesn't and it heals on its own, that could be as little as two weeks.

The funniest, most chaotic scenario is if Bagent sucks but they win anyway, like 16-10. Bagent goes 12-for-21 for 113 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs, but the one TD comes late in the game to seal the win. Bagent sucks but goes full Tebow for a few games.

Fields only averages 1.2 turnovers per start. I expect more passing success, less running success and more turnovers from Bagent.

Only 3? How bad are the raiders? Maybe he'll make me eat my words, but I think Bagent is primed to put in a classic bears backup bad qb performance. Maybe not full Henry Burris but a solid Craig Krenzel. Something like 50% completion rate, under 175 yards and 3+ turnovers. He won't eat sacks the way fields does, but we will miss fields' 2 first downs via scramble per quarter, and an NFL defense is gonna feast on his floaters and ducks. If we have a chance in this game, it's because the defense is low-key starting to gel a bit and the raiders offense is bad. If you take out the defensive scores, we allowed 24 to Denver, 20 to Washington and 12 to Minnesota.

Whichever one we pick might very well bust. Not because we are cursed or whatever, but because most QBs bust. That's why every team that has one is in better shape long-term than every team that doesn't.

College football is so much slower and less complicated than the NFL that it's just impossible to tell who will adapt to NFL speeds and who won't, which is why QBs are notoriously hard to project. Maybe Williams will adjust and be fine, but I don't blame anyone for being gunshy about him after what we went through with fields. If the Bears get 1OA and between now and the draft Williams stock falls, I wouldn't be disappointed.

Bears "preparing as if Bagent will start" and "haven't ruled out surgery."