Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Didnt the Cubs have a big amateur Asian signing recently?
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Gmoney08's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Were you thinking of You Darvush? We didn't get him. -
2013 Draft Discussion
Hairyducked Idiot replied to seattlecub's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Appel. If there's any differentiation at all in your mind, take the better player. -
Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-16-13
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Soler isn't in Daytona's lineup. -
This is why these arguments always spiral into something so much larger and end up being a billion posts, then someone later says "why did we spend so many posts arguing about Cody Ransom? 1) This team projected for a lot better than 71-91 going into the season. 2) Ransom will be fighting for a spot with Gonzalez when Stewart comes back. I don't think it's obvious yet which one would stay. 3) Why on earth did we spend so much money on free agents this offseason if we weren't going to care about winning this year? We spent the extra money to get a solid outfield bench. We spent more than that on swingmen for the rotation.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 4-16-13
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Maybe "reach" is the wrong term, but we paid him like a much higher pick. -
And you find me incredibly hard to ignore. Ignoring things that bother you is not exactly your calling card.
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That seems incredibly unlikely to me.
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Brent Lillibridge is simply not a replacement level player. He's been below replacement five of the six years he's been in the majors. His career total is -1.5 fWAR. If you want to argue that Ransom is more or less replacement and adequate for a mid-season pickup, fine. I disagree. His K rates are horrifying. But I'm not going to say the case is completely unreasonable. But the case that Lillibridge was a replacement level player when they picked him up is shaky at best. His job could have and should have been filled by someone better from the beginning.
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I think you missed the point of Kevin Gregg being on the team. They aren't trolling specific Cubs fans, just the fandom in general.
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A big part of the discussion came from the digression of someone thinking that a replacement-level player would cost several million dollars, and another not understanding that being available for the minimum salary is very much a part of the definition of a replacement player. It's not just their literal projections either, i.e. ZIPS. ZIPS does weird things with middle infielders. You can look at their careers and recent results and see the -X WAR performance coming pretty clearly.
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Ronny Cedeno now. Ronny Cedeno forever.
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We're mostly having this discussion because a few people didn't understand the concept of replacement level, and also the perpetual debate of whether "I find this slightly annoying" is worth posting over or not.
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ZiPS projections Lillibridge: 0.5 WAR Ransom: 0.3 WAR Maysonet: -0.1 WAR Gonzalez: -0.2 WAR So depending on how liberally you want to use the word "around", the Cubs have anywhere from 2 to 4 of those players now. We've gone over how ridiculously optimistic I find the Lililbridge projection. Think of it like LaHair's. I see two different ZIPS projections on Ransom's fangraphs page, one for -0.2 and one for -0.4.
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It means that a team should almost always be able to go to the replacement level player store and find a guy for around $400k and/or negligible trade value that is projected to put up around 0.0 WAR. His actual performance will fluctuate, but there's not much defense for taking a guy whose most likely outcome is below it.
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Hopefully Ian Stewart shows signs of life and we don't have to worry about any more bums buying themselves any amount of time. We're stuck with one of the bums (Ransom or Gonzalez) even after Stewart comes back.
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Are you claiming that reserve infielders represent one of those "very specific circumstances"? That's an interesting point, though it has little to do with what replacement level means and how salary plays into it.
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Maybe now the front office should be reflecting on how terrible they are at finding adequate reserve infielders. Although if we want to consider Alberto Gonzalez the terrible one over Ransom, that's fine too.
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In the long run, he's probably not, but Gonzalez's homer bought him another month or two.
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The actual one. A replacement player is one that costs the team the bare minimum a player can cost. They are available for the league minimum and/or cost negligible trade value. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/replacement-level/ Being available for practically nothing is the entire everloving point of "replacement level."
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By definition, you shouldn't have to pay a couple of million for a replacement-level player. That's the entire point of replacement level.
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Because we replaced him with a guy who is almost exactly as bad. I don't understand what's so unreasonable about wanting reserve infielders who aren't obvious below-replacement candidates.
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38% K rate last season in 282 PAs. ZIPS projection of 190/267/339 for a sub-replacement WAR. He might out-Lillibridge Lillibridge.
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Hahahahaha. Takahishi sent down. Loe and Kevin Gregg called up. So much for just being roster fill. Lillibridge out. He is being replaced with Cody Ransom, who was last seen striking out 109 times in 246 PAs last season.
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Lillibridge being cut, I'm guessing.
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Anything's possible, but it's hard to see us having the best offer.