Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Who is the Cubs #6 Prospect?
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'd consider them for the back of the top-30, but I would also consider leaving them off. Way too much variance. -
It's definitely a reasonable fear.
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Yeah, this is happening. Unless this becomes one of those stupid things where something seems almost done forever and then somehow falls apart. And surely we're all out of those, right? :beg:
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Confirmation-bias-induced interpretation: Laying the groundwork to explain why he's choosing Cubs.
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I still want Tanaka even if the payroll is going to be $90m for awhile.
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We don't have to be the Dodgers to take shots like this. The risk of signing him is that he sucks and you can't spend the money elsewhere. So if you perpetually pass on these guys, all you are doing is locking in the downside. Unspent money makes the same contribution to the team's success as dead money does.
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There's no such thing as a guaranteed performance from a baseball player, let alone a pitcher. Again: Where are the risk-free options we can spend this money on if we don't get Tanaka?
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Letting the team fall into the tank and losing 600k in attendance plus no-shows was expensive. You cannot run a baseball team with scared money.
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Or maybe we combined it with other moves, made the playoffs in 2012 season with his 3.7 wins at first, and as a result have $60m more in ticket sales and Tanaka actually thinks we're a desirable destination.
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If there was a 25-year-old 4-win+ projected position player out there in what is practically free agency, then I'd be glad to blow it all on him instead.
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Even with Tanaka, they can still shoot for a top-10 pick pretty easily. Unless you get really lucky-hot in the first three months, you can dump a lot. Hopefully you keep Samardzija, but you can lose Barney, Valbuena, Schierholtz, Sweeney, Veras, Jackson and/or Castro. That'll put you at 90+ losses again.
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Injuries are part of my concern, sure. No matter the reason, the BoSox lost their ass on Matsuzaka. A total of 2 quality seasons for more than $102M spent. . Yeah, it really destroyed the organization and took them decades to recover. They didn't lose their ass. That's asinine. Somehow we managed to lose our ass on that deal, because it contributed to making Epstein scared of free agency and cost us a bunch of years.
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Well, it comes down to the same issue: If not him, who? If the development plan doesn't come together like we hope, then we're screwed regardless. If it does, then we'll be full up on offense and mid-roster pitching. If we're going to spend money, it's going to be on a pitcher, and it's going to be a risk that he could armsplode the first day of his first Spring Training.
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Matsuzaka was exactly as good as advertised until he got hurt. Which is always a risk with pitchers, MLB or not.
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I'd rather have an 90-win team full of pre-arb MLB studs and laugh at the teams who need Tanaka as badly as we do. But we don't, so back up the truck.
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Boo this man and all the other doubters.
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That's a distinct possibility, but I can't imagine teams have waited this long to make any sort of formal offer. You can't risk some other team offering and getting him to sign right there.
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"Never played in MLB" only bothers me for hitters. It's hard to see how they'll react to better stuff. Tanaka's a pitcher. They know *exactly* how hard he throws, exactly how consistently he hits his location, and exactly how much movement he has on his pitches. I bet they can do a pretty good job of figuring out how that projects in MLB.
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Seems like a huge risk to me, at that price. Not every player that jumps has the impact of Ichiro...there's been quite a few, expensive, flameouts. Sure. But what are we going to do with that $25m that isn't risk?
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Who is the Cubs #6 Prospect?
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'm super curious about Alcantara's season, just because of the logjam he can create. If he gets a late-season tryout and forces his way into a 2015 job, then the infield is suddenly overcrowded (assuming Baez and Bryant get their shots in 2015, which is pretty much guaranteed at this point barring injury). Either Alcantara or Olt could shove Bryant to the outfield or force a trade (Castro?). -
Kershaw was buying out an arbitration year *and* got a very player-friendly opt-out. If he was getting straight FA cash, he'd have gotten more.
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Who is the Cubs #6 Prospect?
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
I'd be tempted to put Vogelbach 7. Seems like there's been a lot of good reports about him lately. -
Boooooooooooo
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Offseason Rumors
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Clem Fandango's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Made the same mistake I always make. Went for someone slightly better looking than me at the expense of any shred of compatibility. Bored out of my mind and would rather have been home internetting and refreshing for Tanaka rumors. -
http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/20956/plan-is-same-as-cubs-await-tanaka-decision If 7/$182 doesn't get it done, then screw baseball.