Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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Arbitrary and logical are not mutually exclusive.
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That's rather arbitrary.
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Your post was basically: "Here's something that's probably true but not certain. Also, why are you speculating on something that's probably true when it's not certain?"
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He's pretty good, and his absence just makes for one more hole to fill.
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If we were trying to win, that's exactly what we should have been planning on.
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Tanaka wasn't making the 2014 Cubs a playoff team. And who knows what the team will look like heading into 2015. Too many possible FAs, trades, etc to write that off today. Not that it will stop you. Make up your mind. Either we have to account for all the unlikely but possible scenarios, in which case Tanaka very much might have made the 2014 Cubs a playoff game, or we talk about most likely projections, in which case writing off 2015 is quite reasonable.
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That's *if* our prospects don't flail out, we keep Samardzija, trade for an outfielder and sign one of the top FA pitchers. Year 4 of the rebuild, that's our best case scenario if a lot of things go right.
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I'd "take it" too. But no matter how you slice it, we're probably missing the playoffs the next two years, and even in the third year we're facing other teams with as much young talent as we have. With Tanaka, that might not have been the case.
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It only has two guys that I'm reasonably sure are above-average pitchers at the ages they'll be in 2015. I get that Arrieta is a wild card. If he pitches WELL in 2014, I'm not sure if I'd be confident in him for the following year. I technically agree with your statement, but I'd bet that ONE of Wood or Jackson is, just not sure which one. Arrieta sucks balls. He just does. He's 28 and has 2.7 career fWAR in 400+ IP. Even if you get one of the two, that's barely an above-average rotation. The team you are describing is a great bet for 84 wins, which I'd take at this point, but is still likely finishing 3rd and out of the wild card game.
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It only has two guys that I'm reasonably sure are above-average pitchers at the ages they'll be in 2015.
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Which brings us back to: Do you *really* believe they will pay market prices for 3 or 4 of the best FAs in a single offseason, when they are post-prime and the FA classes keep getting worse? They could have a $400m payroll available to them and I don't think they'd do that.
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So we wasted an offseason to try to avoid getting sued, and are now still going to get sued?
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The outfield is terrible, the whole offense has an OBP problem, and the rotation isn't terrible but isn't "top-of-division" quality. That team's not terrible, but it's probably not making the playoffs.
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It hasn't. The late 1990s/early 2000s farm systems were quite productive. But you had ownership that wasn't willing to spend to keep that talent. You're not going to see that with today's prospects. That's ... not what happened.
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It hasn't. The late 1990s/early 2000s farm systems were quite productive.
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Oh yeah, we're *totally* going to pay the market price for whatever 30-year-olds don't get contract extensions. And you'd need two of those to have more than a "well, it's not impossible" chance.
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The Cardinals went from the 29th system in 2009 to the 1st in 2013. They didn't need to lose 450 games to do it. Do I think we're going to be terrible forever? No. Do I have any reason to like out 2015-2017 more than the Cardinals or Pirates? No. And the Reds aren't bad. That's not a recipe for sustained success.
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It sure didn't take long to go from one pundit kinda hinting that one guy maybe told him he had Baez at No. 1 to it being stated as fact.
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No. And not particularly close. I want something rather than nothing almost every time, but Garza's had three straight years of elbow injuries and 30 is pretty much the worst age ever for buying an FA pitcher. All the cost of prime with none of the prime years.
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He got suspended. We're up to Legit__Reporter, and he's on his last legs.
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The main thing for me isn't when these guys get here within the year, but whether they lock themselves in to jobs for 2015. Having the full infield and maybe one spilling over into the outfield would be really helpful.
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Apology accepted, Prof.
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Dang, I heard the YES stuff on the radio and was hoping that was real news.
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Tanaka tweeted something that seems to mean "it is decided" according to amateurs using Google translate, but who knows. current mood: We're getting used to drive up the price, again.
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Fringe-average ain't what it used to be.