Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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It wasn't. It was one ER and one UER.
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I'll take a slight over.
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Ballgame.
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Do you have a preferred article or anecdote that contends it didn't happen? I'd be pretty interested to see the genesis of the rumor/evidence either way. No link, but the book Wrigleyville does a good job of deconstructing it. Ruth even admitted later he didn't do it. It was an invention by sportswriters that he went along with because he was good at self-promotion.
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They probably tried to flip others. I'm sure they did. Throw it on the pile of failures.
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The Cubs flipped: Maholm, Feldman, Hairston. That's it. They've spent a ton of money outside of Jackson and those three guys. Well, maybe not a "ton." But a lot more than the Astros.
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Trying to strip "outliers" out of run differential is like trying to take hits out of batting average. That's what it is there to measure.
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Being "negative" has a pretty good streak of being right lately.
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I don't think Olt or Lake looks like an acceptable starter for 2015. I don't think we're going to get a 2015 rotation-locked pitcher for Samardzija I don't think we're going to get two full-time 2015 productive starters out of Bryant, Baez, Soler and Alcantara. And of course the -0.2 fWAR bullpen needs work.
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I didn't say "as an organization." I specifically said "on the MLB roster."
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Yeah, I saw the Astros drop $90m or whatever on free agents two offseasons ago. They have alternated trying and not trying schizophrenically, but a lot of the reason we suck is because they have made sucky decisions, not because they are trying to suck.
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Flashforward to 2016, when the Cubs go 79-83 and Castillo provides a 0.2 WAR turd of a season, and we can't blame Theo because Castillo had just seemed so reliable.
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Well, that settles it. Nobody ever slips as they hit their late 20s in modern baseball, and WAR is completely predictive.
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Castillo is a 27-year-old catcher with a 26% K-rate. Setting back and assuming that's filled is a perilous position to take.
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He had flexibility. Most of the bad contracts were coming off the books as he took over.
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Of course not. But you'll have to come up with a better reason that our team is an outlier than "they just suck I hate them," although I certainly sympathize with that sentiment. They aren't a true-talent 108-loss, .333 team right now. They are experience pretty extreme negative variance between their performance and ability vs. their actual record. It happens. Sometimes you field a bad team and variance gives you a terrible record instead of merely bad. We *just* saw this last year. The team was 18-30 on May 25, but the statistical indicators were saying they were a better team than that, and they went 31-28 from May 25 to July 31. Then we went 17-38 the rest of the way. The most reasonable expectation is something similar this year. We've got 67 games until the trade deadline. Maybe 60 until the midpoint of the trading season. If we play to our current statistical indicators in that time, we'd go something like 29-31 in those games, leaving us at 42-57. Then we limp home with a stripped-bare team and finish between 95 and 105 losses.
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Over the course of 6 months it is more predictive. Over the course of 1.5 months with 2 huge outlier games it is meaningless. Incorrect. There have been multiple studies demonstrating that Pythogorean record becomes more predictive than actual record or previous record as quickly as a quarter of a season.
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No, I don't care how they've gotten to their stat lines yet. Lake and Olt with .700+ OPS's is fine with me. I see Lake with little shot at starting but I'm not going to give up on Olt. Castillo is fine. Kalish is a backup. Every one of them is a below-average player except *maybe* Castillo if he can keep up his "high-K but magically good results when I hit the ball" thing. There is less on the MLB roster now than there was when Epstein took over. If he were leaving, he'd be leaving the new guy a bigger mess than the one he has failed to clean up.
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"shown flashes" is just code for "sucked"
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-16-14
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Not yet. But he's having extreme control problems, which are often a precursor, especially in guys who have had forearm problems in the last few years. -
Scoring a bunch of runs sometimes and none other times *is* a form of bad luck. That's the entire reason Pythagorean record is more predictive than real record. Yeah, they've probably been unlucky. They are bad and bad luck has made them look really bad. That's the risk you take when you put together a bad team.
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes 5-15-14
Hairyducked Idiot replied to CaliforniaRaisin's topic in Cubs Minor League Talk
Kyle Hendricks for No. 2 prospect. -
shopped
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Thanks, Jim Hendry.
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Bullpen comings and goings
Hairyducked Idiot replied to Transmogrified Tiger's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
Grimm has a 4.63 xFIP