Yeah, it's hard to make hard predictions about any NFL season because it's such a high-variance sport. A single flukey bounce can change a win or loss, and each game is 6% of your season. Then throw in injuries, an NFL season is a meat-grinder and the team you take into week 9 may not be the team you started with.
This team in particular is even harder to predict. Maybe I'm being a huge homer, but I don't think Williams is the downside risk. He might not be the Patrick Mahomes 2.0 of our dreams, but I don't see how he's noticeably worse than Kyler Murray (3722 yards, 20 TDs, 12 INTs as a rookie) or Baker Mayfield (3725, 27/14 in 13 starts). Bryce Young (2877 12/10) was pretty bad but I don't think he was on Williams' level as a prospect. The last 10A to really crap the bed as a rookie was Goff, who was widely considered to be "not nfl ready" going into his rookie season.
My main concern is that we need to see steps forward for our big 2022/23 draft classes and we may or may not see that. I'm a big believer that at most positiosn for most prospects (i.e. not Williams-level superstars), year 2 and 3 is when you find out if you hit on the spot or not. That covers:
Gordon, Brisker, VJJ, Braxton Jones, Robinson, Thomas, Wright, Dexter, Stevenson, Pickett, Scott.
I think all those guys have shown that they can be some sort of contributor if the NFL, but we don't really know how good, and we'll find out this season if they're actually good in their roles or just kinda there.
If this team falls apart, I think it's the defense that is the most likely culprit. It's sort of right on the cusp where if those guys take steps forward it could be really good, but it could also fall apart. The defensive line is praying that Sweat can draw double teams *and* be productive, because there's not much else there unless some of those 2nd/3rd year guys take an unexpectedly good step forward.
I think Bears fans overrate the non-Johnson secondary: Gordon, Brisker, Stevenson. It was definitely exploitable in coverage last season. But again, those guys are in that "could take a step forward" category, and if they do, it *could* be one of the best secondaries in the league. But if they don't, then it's not.
Actually, I guess I'm talking myself into this team more than I planned to when I started this post. I don't really care if the defense is disappointingly average or even a little below average. Screw defense. I have a very hard time seeing this offense being anything but solid absent wide-spread injuries or a Caleb Williams season-ender, and it's an offense-driven league. I have a hard time seeing this team win fewer games than last year.