Hairyducked Idiot
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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot
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*settles in for a fun thread* Remember: Any amount that the Cubs fail in the present or recent past can be balanced out by exaggerating how bad their position was when Epstein took over. If 30th-ranked farm system (not true, of course) wasn't bad enough, start going lower even though there's only 30 farm systems. *If* they don't make the playoffs this year, as they are currently not in a position to do so, Epstein's path to have a better 9-year run than Jim Hendry did is starting to get pretty narrow if you define success by playoff appearances (because the playoffs themselves are a crapshoot).
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Average fWAR per season, going backwards: All six years: 1.5 Last five years: 1.2 Last four years: 1.1 Last three years: 0.5 Last two years: 0.8 This year: -1.2 There's no endpoint you can choose that makes Castro's career average at this point even an average starter.
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Chase Utley
Hairyducked Idiot replied to sontensei's topic in MLB Draft, International Signings, Amateur Baseball
Holy crap, Chase Utley is like the one guy anywhere who has managed a lower fWAR than Castro. -1.3 vs. -1.2 -
Kris Bryant Being Called Up!
Hairyducked Idiot replied to TruffleShuffle's topic in Chicago Cubs Talk
.788 today -
Shelling out prospects and/or young big-leaguers for one of those arms would be preferable to giving out another 30s-pitcher megadeal.
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Hamels ran out of gas because he threw so many pitchers finishing the no-hitter against us.
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#wearegood
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Nice.
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I didn't think I was being vague. A second terrible season is significantly more difficult to write off as a fluke than the first, and more strongly changes the projection going forward. Nobody has a good answer on what to do with his 2012-2013-2014-2015 combo in terms of projection. If you go high, you're ignoring two very bad seasons. If you go low, you're ignoring two decent ones. If you split the difference, you're picking the one thing he's least likely to do. The best I can come up with is "recency is the tiebreaker," but that's not a very satisfactory answer.
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You could say that about any player that has a terrible season. You can say it more strongly about players who have a second terrible season. The second one is critical.
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I'm mainly just wondering if anyone saw discussion or an article or something in the offseason that called out any red flags or warning signs. If anything it seemed like the opposite and I only remember a few things about why the Cubs SHOULDN'T trade him in the offseason. Most of my "defense" of him stems from the simplistic approach of, "OK, if he was able to rebound so well in 2014 from 2013, why can't he do that again?" But if he rebounds, how can we or potential trade partners trust he won't tank again?
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dong
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I love free outs.
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Oof, I just noticed he's down to -1.1 fWAR
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If you gave me $1200 on a random team or $1000 on the team I thought was best, I'd take the random one.
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Taking that into a tangent, how sure are we that we're seeing what we'd need to see from such an organization? We've hit on 2 of 3 top-10 picks, we've traded MLB assets for some good prospects, and we paid a lot of money for Soler. But is the grassroots organizational waves and waves thing really happening? The 2012 draft, for example, feels awfully meh in retrospect.
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I keep seeing this mentioned like it's a bad thing, when in fact it's a very smart thing and by design. I like it, but I can see a failure condition. I sometimes wonder if the Cubs aren't focused on the kinds of hitters that would thrive in the 00s, but might not translate well to the 2010s pitching environment.
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Well, I guess since the ink is already dry on that quality pitcher and there's no chance that the Dodgers might sign him instead, then that is pretty awesome. I'm not "scared" of the future. I'm simply not taking the 60th percentile projection on everyone and crowing about how great it's going to be.
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Can't agree. Leake has roughly doubled their fWAR total this year.
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Meh. The 2016 Cubs right now don't seem that much better to me than the 2015 Cubs. The older and overperforming pitching staff should be projected to give back anything the young and underperforming offense gives you. The main reason to think 2016 might be better is "holy crap, the Cardinals can't win 110 games every year," I guess.
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I hate trying to phrase it in binary terms like this. I'm glad they didn't do literally nothing. I don't think they did enough. I'm happy that the Cubs are in contention. I'm annoyed that all the other contenders got more better than we did. I am excited about our young hitting. I'm a bit nervous we didn't do anything to make the pitching staff younger and more stable in the medium-term. I don't think there had to be one line that said "Kyle Happy" on one side and "Kyle Sad" on the other. (I'm sure someone can finish off that alley-oop)
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That letting Castro go on August waivers would be a defensible opinion. You don't even have to agree with it, you just have to not think it's utterly crazybuckets.
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I don't think anyone here is really that upset given what's come out about what teams were asking for. Basically it seems to come down to the Cubs not being willing to move Baez, and that just is what it is. A lot of people just take issue with those that are crowing about how they're simply happy the Cubs didn't "sell the farm." I'm a *little* upset. Less upset than I've been at other times, probably because they've worn me down at this point. It was a D+/C- kind of deadline.
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Can the line be "Do at least as much as at least one of our key playoff-spot rivals?"
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Put it this way: If Castro were a free agent today, would you be willing to pay $38m for him?