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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Therein lies the problem. Presumably, as the season goes on, his innings will go down and his leverage index will go up.
  2. I know I'm playing semantics, but it isn't racist. It's stereotypical and insensitive, but it doesn't espouse the idea that races have different abilities and some races are more valuable than others.
  3. In terms of wins above replacement, using the stats I listed above, the best starting pitchers each season are usually worth 7-9 wins and the best relievers 6-8. Given that there's no guarantee of dominance in one translating to dominance in another, I don't think there's much incentive to be moving the best relievers to starting or vice-versa.
  4. Peavy's best ERA+ in a season was 171, Santana's was 182. Marmol put up a 326 last season. IF you knew for a fact that Peavy and Santana could become even more dominant as relievers, and you had a manager with the discipline to use him only in truly high-leverage situations, then their value could be comparable in either situation, yes.
  5. He can cruise the rest of the month and still have his third ever as a productive major-leaguer.
  6. http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204021 Marmol has been the most valuable relief pitcher in all of baseball to this point, worth a full win over replacement already. His innings have been 58% more important than a basic, start-of-the-game inning. http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204017 Compare the Support-Nuetral Value Added, adjusted for level (SNVAL) for the best starters in the league versus Marmol's Wins Expected Added adjusted for level (WXL), which are basically the same stat. Marmol's 0.865 wins added above average is right up there with the best starters in the league.
  7. I really don't see what's wrong with Marmol staying in relief. A truly dominant relief pitcher used in high-leverage situations (which Piniella is mostly doing, although I'd like to see Marmol a bit less in 2-run leads) can be just as valuable as a high-innings starter.
  8. http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280419116 Fangraph calls it. 100% chance of a Cubs victory.
  9. In other news, the Cardinals trail 3-0 in the eighth: http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280419124 Reds have tied the Brewers 3-3 in yet another Brewers bullpen blown lead: http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280419117
  10. I found something more fun to read that blowout arguments, the MLB.com Reds forum argument over Corey Patterson. http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?tsn=1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-reds&tid=45054 Reds fan (paraphrase): Of course Patterson has potential, he was 2000 Southern League Player of the Year according to Baseball America!
  11. To kill time. To prove how smart we are so that the new owner might notice our baseball skillz and offer a job in the front office, of course.
  12. Maybe Lou's giving him the same part of the game off as he did with Ramirez a game or two ago? I dunno, it just seems like 7-1 is too close to do that. I know it's not like 2-1, but it's not 15-1. http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?gameid=280419116 I think we're fine. Win expectancy: 97%
  13. I'm not even worried about this season, per se. With or without Theriot and Pie, the Cubs are the best team in the division, and after that the playoffs are a tossup. I just want to continue to be the best team in the division for a long time, and we can't paper over our mistakes with cash forever.
  14. That wasn't my post. But I did say some pretty bad things about the Pirates earlier, so I'll accept my one. Anyways, 7-1 now.
  15. Thank you for telling us how we should be fans. I'm wearing my jersey but not my hat today, is that cool with you?
  16. His career minor-league numbers point to him being pretty much exactly what he was last year.
  17. You obviously haven't read too many game threads this year. My favorite: the "BE HURT THERIOT" comment(s). To be fair, we aren't complaining about his play to date this season. We are complaining about the likely level of play the rest of the season.
  18. I'm going to risk some woof-god wrath and check for the last time the Cubs started 11-6.
  19. That's what I was thinking. They are bad at everything. Defensively, offensively, pitching. Not one facet of their game is good.
  20. Cedeno's hustle in the batter's box forces the wild pitch, run scored.
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