He's a bit more pessimistic than I am, but Perry hit it dead on. If anything gets the Cubs, it will be the pitching, especially the rotation. Rich Hill still had control problems at Iowa, and I think it's reasonable to say that it's a real issue at this point. Combine it with potential health problems now, and there's a very good chance we've lost our No. 2 pitcher. After Lilly and Zambrano now, we have a lot of guys capable of putting up ERAs in the high 4s (i.e. not good but not horrible). Ideally, two of them maintain that and a third takes a step forward. So far, Dempster has been the step forward guy, but I don't think any of us expect him to keep it up. Lieber, Gallagher, Marshall, Marquis, Dempster. I put them all in the same rough band of pitching, and we'd like to get overperformance and two adequate seasons out of the three. There is only one realistic path (outside of catastrophic injury problems) that leads to the Cubs losing the division or missing the playoffs: Mediocre back end of the rotation + CF never working itself out and SS regressing + bad luck/pythagorean underperformance + someone in the division getting lucky and overperforming. It's not a really likely path, which is why most projection models have the Cubs at 75+% in the playoffs.