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Hairyducked Idiot

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Everything posted by Hairyducked Idiot

  1. Hairyducked Idiot
    It was a hit and run, withdrawn.
  2. Hairyducked Idiot
    And Fukudome continues to defy the myth of fundamentally sound Japanese players.
  3. Hairyducked Idiot
    Ask and I shall recieve, I guess.... "Threesome with Erin Andrews and Rachel Nichols....." :beg: Too late. Everybody gets one, and you used yours on the first inning of a Cubs-Pirates game in an already-decided division :) Hope it was worth it. Was that McClouth ball at the track or just before it? Pat made it sound kinda close Front of the track. Scary, but never really close to gone.
  4. Hairyducked Idiot
    Ask and I shall recieve, I guess.... "Threesome with Erin Andrews and Rachel Nichols....." :beg: Too late. Everybody gets one, and you used yours on the first inning of a Cubs-Pirates game in an already-decided division :)
  5. Hairyducked Idiot
    Well-turned.
  6. Hairyducked Idiot
    Pssh. Only single-digit strikeouts. I'm worried he might be broken.
  7. Hairyducked Idiot
    When that happens at a key point in a playoff series, a small part of my soul will shrivel and die.
  8. Hairyducked Idiot
    I hope it hits him in the stomach, causing internal bleeding. That's a much more painful way to die. Also, I hope it richochets off him and also kills a small child (as long as the child is a Cardinals fan.)
  9. Hairyducked Idiot
    Wikipedia or Google can be your friend. Thats where I found that your guy Dempster came back at twelve months with success, Kerry Wood had more velocity after 7, many more examples. Just wishing a guys arm falls off because you hate the team and all doesnt make that statement correct automatically. I did hear on the radio that Carpenter will have two pockets full of pixie dust tonight, instead of the traditional one. Kerry Wood season before TJS: 3.40 ERA Kerry Wood first season returning from TJS: 4.80 ERA Kerry Wood second season returning from TJS: 3.36 ERA If you are going to throw out the snide google comment, you should at least take the time to look things up yourself.
  10. Hairyducked Idiot
    But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely." Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%. Or 1.25%. 1.25 percentage points, 18% of the original odds. .85/8=.10625 .95/8=.11875 An increase of 1.25% Are you trying to divide percents by percents? If thats the case then .11875/.10625-1=11.7647% Where are you getting 18% from? Bad math. 11.7% would have been the right answer for the method I was trying to use.
  11. Hairyducked Idiot
    But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely." Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%. Or 1.25%. 1.25 percentage points, 18% of the original odds.
  12. Hairyducked Idiot
    As has been said repeatedly, TJ rehabbers can often pitch within a year, but almost always takes 18-24 months before they pitch as well as they used to.
  13. Hairyducked Idiot
    But there's a real difference between an 85% chance and a 95% chance. No reason to pin ourselves down to broad phrases such as "likely." Or, look at it this way: Assuming a 1/8 chance for every playoff team for simplicity's sake, going from 85% to 95% chance to make the playoffs increases our odds of winning the World Series by 18%.
  14. Hairyducked Idiot
    Except Lou has said he's going to be a late inning power arm, but he isn't going to throw on back to back days. And this made 3 of 5 days pitching for the kid since his call-up, and there are guys rotting in the bullpen, for whom, a blowout is the perfect opportunity to get them in the game. Piniella says lots of things, none of which should be believed, especially about player usage.
  15. Hairyducked Idiot
    It's getting into important times. It's true that a few games are too small of a sample size to determine the true ability level of a team. I think sometimes people use that to downplay results too much. A single game may have little value in determining true ability level, but it can be incredibly important in the binary "in or out" playoff system. The later we get with things still being relatively close, the more important the games get. When you get down to 60 games to go in a tight playoff race, the playoff-value of individual games goes up quite a bit.
  16. Hairyducked Idiot
    Hmm, I think you are right, it never was calculated the way I thought. I did just assume it was like ERA+.
  17. Hairyducked Idiot
    They have to do that because they split up OPS into its components. When the stat was first created, iirc, it was just OPS normalized to a league average of 100 and adjusted for park effects. Once you add that -1 into the equation, you have the potential for negative numbers, which was what had me befuddled before.
  18. Hairyducked Idiot
    Samardzija is some kid who we aren't real sure of yet, even with minor league performance included. There's nothing wrong with using him in a non-critical situation to get him some innings.
  19. Hairyducked Idiot
    Ballga-.... *muffled sounds of NSBB clubbing and gagging KyleJRM*
  20. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm not familiar with this "Cubs Nation" of which you speak.
  21. Hairyducked Idiot
    I'm not too worried. He's not young, his arm has always held up well, and 100 is kind of arbitrary. I'd rather not see 120, but 110 wouldn't bother me.
  22. Hairyducked Idiot
    Basically, you're more than 100 "points" below what the average player is producing. So like Wolf said... you can go over 200, so you can go below 0. yeah, it means you're pretty awful That doesn't make sense, because OPS+ is a normalization, right? It's OPS/LeagueAverageOPS*100*park factor, right? None of those numbers should be negative, so how is the result negative? perhaps the park factor makes it negative, meaning Murton's 3 for 30 line might be an OPS+ of 0 in certain parks, but in the parks he played in, those numbers end up being even worse than "0" Park factor is scaled from 0-infinity, too, so it can't be negative, either. Someone (baseball-reference?) must be using a definition of OPS+ that is different from the one I'm used to, there is no other way to get negatives into the equation.
  23. Hairyducked Idiot
    What would have been lucky is if Theriot's crummy, weak ground ball had actually been out of his reach.
  24. Hairyducked Idiot
    A good throw and Theriot would have continued his never-ending quest to kill innings with good hitters at bat.
  25. Hairyducked Idiot
    Ballgame.
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