Hairyducked Idiot

What makes a player injury prone if not lots of injuries? You seem to be obsessing over the idea that because it doesn't happen every time, that means it is a fluke. Mark Prior didn't hurt himself every pitch he threw, but he was still injury prone. The odds of Milton Bradley getting hurt by stepping on his legs funny are higher than a normal players, so whether it happens 1% of the time or .5% of the time is the key.

I'm wondering if Detroit isn't just a bad matchup for us. It doesn't make sense for them to so consistently beat good teams and be so awful against the two great teams in the conference.

I'm wondering if Detroit isn't just a bad matchup for us. It doesn't make sense for them to so consistently beat good teams and be so awful against the two great teams in the conference.

Running backs attrite *fast*. Once the injuries start to hit, it's over. Most running backs get three or four good seasons and that's it.

Good ol' reliable rock. Nothing beats that!

4th-and-10 from your own 1, up three, 2 minutes to go. Do you even entertain the possibility of taking the intentional safety to give your defense the field position for a real chance at a stop for the win? Not if you're the Colts with Peyton Manning, but maybe if you are a defense-heavy team?

Tearing your ACL isn't a freak accident, though, no matter when it happens. Unless the freak part was some hoodlum coming out of nowhere, pinning you down and twisting your knee.

Versteeg is your best bet, but the Hawks are going to be in an awful cap state in a few years, so there's just no guarantees.

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/flukey

Not to mention, it's always a good idea to be very suspect of attributing results to adjustments. Players make adjustments constantly, then they assume the ones that correlate with success are responsible. Sometimes they are, but not often enough to be 100% sure every time.

If Miles could do that consistently, he wouldn't be as much of a problem. But he's failed to do it pretty consistently. He has a .329 career OBP and has been close to .330 all but one year. His splits are also very favorable for a platoon with Fontenot. Vs. LHP his OBP over the last three years jumps to .374. Not a bad option as a PH or to spell other players vs. LHP. Now that I don't disagree with. But there's a word for guys who can play an average but not impressive middle infield and be the right-handed half of a platoon: Fungible. They are a dime a dozen.

If Miles could do that consistently, he wouldn't be as much of a problem. But he's failed to do it pretty consistently.

Replacement level players don't average over 400 AB's per season. I'm sure you could find a scrap heap 3rd baseman, to have a sub 700 OPS for maybe 150-200 AB's. But you're more likely find crappy ones that don't do that and hurt you're offense. I find it pretty hard to believe you will find a replacement level guy to put up Miles numbers for 400 AB's. If you think Miles is a overpaid middle infielder thats fine, but then most back up middle infielders are then. Miles is getting the going rate for his type of player. We can bash Hendry all we want for worrying to much about depth and bench players. But I remember a time when Hendry didn't do that and how awful that was. The last two years he had plenty of depth, and when we had injuries we usually didn't miss a beat. Doesn't the memory of Rey Ordonez, Damian Jackson, Enquire Wilson, Tony Womack, Angel Pagan, Freddie Bynum getting regular playing time when we had injuries give anybody else nightmares? Those were guys we all picked up off the scrap heap and the outcome was very bad. I guess people forget how important good depth is to have when you have it. So they complain about spending too much money for a bench player. But if we had to trade DeRosa I'm glad Hendry brought in someone to replace him. If he just went with Cedeno in that spot, or just signed some scub, things could be very bad next season if we have a injury. I'm not sure why you are imagining some magic line between 200 ABs and 400 ABs. And none of the stuff you just said changes the point I made, which was that he doesn't hit enough to be a viable backup at 3rd base. He's perfectly fine at 2b and SS.

In our system I'd take that bet. I don't see us having a guy who we can call up hit 290 get on base at a 330 rate and have OPS in the 700s while getting 300-400 AB's if he has to down on the farm right now. Yes some some scrub might be able to do that for a week or whatever. I think thats the point though people look at Miles numbers and say well there not that great or average. But people need to factor in the AB's he gets, if the guy is only getting 200 AB's he's probably alot better hitter. Miles would be a bad everyday player, but is a good bench player who can be part of a platoon and start for you at times. I don't see how paying 2.2m for him next year is that much overpaying. Especially when other simliar players just signed simliar contracts. I'm not sure I'd bet on Miles getting on base at a .330 rate with an OPS in the .700s either, considering he's had five chances to cross those thresholds and only done it once. Let's not get carried away. You may not like the Miles acquisition, but the guy did put up a .355 OBP last year, and to claim that any AAA 3B could do that or put up Miles career line of a .328 OBP is beyond defensible. Just for kicks the Cubs AAA 3b last year Casey McGehee put up a .160 OBP in back up duty with the Cubs. Ronny Cedeno comes into 2009 with a career .289 OBP. Its not as easy as you try to make it out to be. Oh my, he did it one whole season? That changes everything. The Cubs system is notoriously weak at 3b right now. But I have no doubt they could find a scrap-heap mid-20s guy to put up a sub .700 OPS from third base. That's why they call it "replacement level." Miles is a perfectly adequate but overpaid backup middle infielder. The fact that he can play third base is irrelevant, every backup middle infielder should be able to do that. Most, including Miles, can't hit remotely close enough to justify it.

In our system I'd take that bet. I don't see us having a guy who we can call up hit 290 get on base at a 330 rate and have OPS in the 700s while getting 300-400 AB's if he has to down on the farm right now. Yes some some scrub might be able to do that for a week or whatever. I think thats the point though people look at Miles numbers and say well there not that great or average. But people need to factor in the AB's he gets, if the guy is only getting 200 AB's he's probably alot better hitter. Miles would be a bad everyday player, but is a good bench player who can be part of a platoon and start for you at times. I don't see how paying 2.2m for him next year is that much overpaying. Especially when other simliar players just signed simliar contracts. I'm not sure I'd bet on Miles getting on base at a .330 rate with an OPS in the .700s either, considering he's had five chances to cross those thresholds and only done it once.

Miles is an inferior hitter to most AAA third basemen, I'd wager.

Two of the players you mentioned play a premium defensive position, and the third is making significantly less than Soriano. No he isn't. Annualized it's not even $1M less per year. Soriano got 2 more years, but not much more money per. I'd say the extra two years is pretty significant in terms of measuring how much the player is getting.

Let Dempster go and not signed Miles. That should cover DeRosa and Bradley. Going by 2009 expectations and not 2008 results, I'll take DeRosa+Marshall over Dempster+Miles That's not the comparison though. It's Dempster v. Marquis and Fontenot/Miles v. DeRosa/Fontenot, since Bradley and Marshall start in both scenarios. I don't think there's a substantial difference between the two, especially if there had been someone better than Miles(Barmes :( ) in that platoon spot. If those are the choices, I take Marquis, DeRosa and Fontenot. I'm getting virtually the same production without the long-term contract commitments.

But at what cost? There's an opportunity cost to everything, and I think once you are fairly confident of making the playoffs, the utility of going for more rather than saving resources for later years isn't worth it.

The Cubs would be better off without Dempster's new contract regardless of whether Peavy is dealt or not. You just can't give contracts like that to 32-year-old starting pitcher with one good season under their belts.

Which he had never done before, and he's 32 years old. The never-ending Hendry defense: this stupid thing was made necessary by previous stupid things. Of course, the Soriano overpay was necessary because the team fell apart in 05/06 because he did such a poor job. And he had to let Baker blow out Prior's arm because he hadn't put together a good bullpen. It never ends... What's the correct course of action then? How would you have built the team given the financial constraints the team is under this offseason? Let Dempster go and not signed Miles. That should cover DeRosa and Bradley. Going by 2009 expectations and not 2008 results, I'll take DeRosa+Marshall over Dempster+Miles

Which he had never done before, and he's 32 years old. The never-ending Hendry defense: this stupid thing was made necessary by previous stupid things. Of course, the Soriano overpay was necessary because the team fell apart in 05/06 because he did such a poor job. And he had to let Baker blow out Prior's arm because he hadn't put together a good bullpen. It never ends...

There's a crapshoot aspect to the playoffs, but making your team worse is going to reduce your chances of winning it, regardless. I'm skeptical that it does enough to be a consideration in personnel moves, but that may just be the experience of seeing the Cubs swept twice by inferior teams talking.

Even with half a season from each, what team in the NL Central is better? I guess the Cardinals are always a threat because Pujols + a bunch of lucky averageness dangerous. I don't think they look to threaten 100 wins at this point, but I see no reason not to think another 03/07 is likely.

Don't forget we tied up a very mediocre starting pitcher for big money for four years, which is never good.