vance_the_cubs_fan

I agree. Not getting out is waaaay lame. Yeah man. Every fantasy league I've ever played in has obp as a stat. Oh wait, no league I've ever played in has that as a stat. Never mind. A bunch nerds like the fantasy geeks you talked about use computers to research crap like medicine, science, and technology. I don't have a lot of use for that stuff. If I get constant headaches, I'm not gonna go get a "CT Scan." If I have horrible vision, I'm not going to get "laser surgery." Basically, everything that I need to know, I learned when I was 6. Everything else is frivolous gobbily-[expletive] that can't in any way educate me further on a subject I'm interested or teach me anything of value that would help me along in life. Critical thinking is almost as lame as not getting out in baseball. Almost. Come on, wolf. You know that that's way out of line. I want to reiterate Cuse's post, there has been a lot of border-line stuff. This is a nice, interesting thread. Please stick to the rules, folks. Not a single thing in that post is anywhere near as inflammatory as "stat geek" and "fantasy baseball nerds" that a certain minor league announcer has used. IMB has a point.

The only thing that could have made this better were if Dombrowski had said that he likes guys who catch the ball.

QFT Simply put, outs are the most valuable commodity in baseball. There are a limited number of them. If a batter can avoid making an out, then the inning is prolonged and the chance for runs is greatly increased.

Are you trying to imply I don't watch games? My guess is I've watched as many games as the majority of people on this forum this year.

That's why judging a player's SLG + OBP is probably the best rudimentary way to judge a player. If you get players on base and and if you produce extra bases with your bat, you score runs. However, looking for BA with RISP is not going to help. Building a team with strong OBP and SLG% up and down the line-up will be much more conducive to a winning team.

And as I pointed out, Dierker calls this a "dubious" stat. In the course of a game it may have value. The team that does this best is likely a team that has the best chance of winning. Unfortunately, it is a stat that has no predictive value. BA with RISP (or commonly called "clutch hitting") isn't a repeatable skill. A player who does well in that area one year isn't likely to do the same in subsequent years. So, while if wanting to determine who assissted the most in an individual game in the past, finding the player who hit with RISP might be telling, but in constructing a team, finding a player who hit with RISP the previous year is asking for disaster. Should you judge a player by one year of stats? No, but to say that being able to produce under pressure situations is not valuable is just as ridiculous. One player who comes to mind is Mark Bellhorn. The guy could get on base at a decent clip, but beyond his ability to get on base he was almost completely worthless. I don't remember how many times he came up to the plate with a runner in scoring position and failed to make contact to score the runner. Looking at his last 3 years splits, it is clear that he is not a "clutch hitter". I didn't say being able to produce under pressure isn't valuable, it's just not predictive in any shape or form. If it were a true ability, surely it would be valuable, but other than anecdotally, it doesn't appear that "clutch hitting" is a real ability. If we want to go out and find a bunch of clutch hitters, we might as well build a team of gnomes, halflings, hobbits, and orges because those are as about as "real" as a clutch hitter.

And as I pointed out, Dierker calls this a "dubious" stat. In the course of a game it may have value. The team that does this best is likely a team that has the best chance of winning. Unfortunately, it is a stat that has no predictive value. BA with RISP (or commonly called "clutch hitting") isn't a repeatable skill. A player who does well in that area one year isn't likely to do the same in subsequent years. So, while if wanting to determine who assissted the most in an individual game in the past, finding the player who hit with RISP might be telling, but in constructing a team, finding a player who hit with RISP the previous year is asking for disaster.

I'm a Murton fan...but, I don't care how hard he trained..he would be a nightmare in CF defensively. why? Not very good speed/range, not very good arm strength. i always thought murton had decent speed. agree on the arm strength (but we deal with that now with pierre), and range, well, i have to plead ignorant. but i think a winterball of playing cf and some coaching, he'd at least be competent out there, and at worst slightly below average. i'd say he'd do an equivalent job as jerry hairston given some training out there. What do you think will actually happen? I ask because I have no clue. Are they going to give Pie the shot? I think they'll try to re-sign Pierre. :puker: Then, I think they'll look to replace Murton or Cedeno with a power bat, maybe Soriano.

I wouldn't be so sure that Gene didn't get a piece either.

My favorite Neifi moment occured the morning of June 3, 2006 when after 19 straight games of being snubbed, Neifi finally scribbled some resemblance of a signature on the team ball of one of the worst Cubs teams in existience.

I think if Jones were moved to CF and a power bat were brought in for RF, we could live with Murton's SLG% in left.

In his most recent blog, Dierker referred to BA with RISP a "dubious" stat. My love for the man in Hawaiian shirts grows daily. Good Kent, how I wish he would run this organization!)

After reading this, I love Dierker even more, but now know Hendry would never hire him. :cry:

It seems that many of us are being chided that we don't understand the game from an "insider's" perspective. Well, I can't provide this from all perspectives, but since I hold a copy of This Ain't Brain Surgery in my hands as I type, I'll try to quote the beliefs of an "insider." Dierker should be qualified here. He won his division 4 of the 5 seasons he managed in addition to a 14 year career as a player, not counting his experience as a broadcaster. And from Dierker's blog...

I'm going to strongly disagree with this. Not making outs is important no matter where you are in the line-up.

I say back to the top and then waivers, but either way. I don't mind drafting all the way until rosters are finished as long as people pick up the pace.

Who's going to save us? :P

But wait....Who's going to save us?

I was planning on going to it, but my wife asked, "You've already been to 10 Cubs games this year and they won three of those. Do you really want to drive 8 hours to watch them suck?" She had an excellent point.

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I don't want to cry, but I do think it's time to impose a 24-hour limit on making a pick. Since the season is getting close, if everyone will check in at least once a day we can keep things moving along.

Smells Like Tuna selects Chris Brown, RB Tennesee.

There's no way anyone pries away Brian McCann. we will have an excess of good young pitching this offseason. The Braves will not be motivated to trade McCann. He's young, good, and cheap. So unless we're willing to offer Marshall, Marmol, Paweleck, Guzman, Pie, Murton, Prior, Gallagher and maybe a few more, we should give it up.

Which site? GatewayRedbirds? And if so, where is there game thread located? Hah, it's on Gateway Redbirds. I just read that thread. I guess the real problem is that Tony La Russa made a move that, in the end, didn't work out. They're getting on Tony for not being able to predict the future. Actually, they should get on Tony. Statistically, a DP occurs a little over 10% of the time. Walking a hitter in order to set up a DP is almost always a bad move. Vance, I think they were referencing Tony's decision to take Duncan out in the 9th and pinch hit Encarnacion-that got those Cardinal fans up and yelling at Tony apparently. Also, I think that the walk to set up the DP would be a little different statistically if a team only needs 1 run to win-which makes the walk meaningless if you can trust the pitcher to not walk anyone else. Personally, I don't think they made the right move-because Nevin hits a lot of fly balls-but at the same time, for one thing if he does hit in on the ground he is a prime DP candidate, and even more important than that is the fact that he had struck out 13 times out of 28 at bats in August. While Cedeno has struck out a decent amount, he has been better at making contact in August, and if he makes contact the game is probably over. Tony probably used those recent numbers to think he had a pretty good shot of either striking Nevin out or getting him to ground into a DP-it was a gamble, but a decent gamble. He had about a 10-12% chance it work. It was a poor gamble any way you look at it.

There's no way anyone pries away Brian McCann.