vance_the_cubs_fan

I could've included some other stats, I know. Dye performs well in the power categories and has a good average, but there are other power hitters, Manny and Pronk, who out perform him. I still think the HR's and RBI's are going to keep Ortiz at the top of the national view. Win Shares likely put Jeter over the top for me, but I may change my mind before the end of the season. There are so many players that are so close, anything can happen. Dye is seventh in the league in runs created and last among my group of nine in win shares. I don't see him overcoming enough in those categories for me to think he's the MVP.

Last time I checked, you win with offense too. Pitching and defense, is more important than offense. If you dont have a solid pitching staff supported with a solid defense, your not going to win many baseball games. Yet, you advocate the Cubs retaining Juan Pierre who hurts the Cubs from a defensive standpoint because of his weak arm. Pierre has 0 errors so far for the Cubs this year. For the 100th time, all Pierre needs to do is throw the ball to the cut-off man. Didnt Pierre win a world series with his bad arm in CF for the Marlins? No, Pierre was part of a team that won the World Series. His bad arm really didn't help much. The point is, you can win a world series with Pierre in CF. Teams win World Series with weaknesses all the time. I'm pretty sure a team could win a World Series with Walker too. I'm going to laugh if for some strange occurances the Padres get hot and win the WS using Walker at third.

Walker's defense at second wasn't bad enough to offset the benefit he brings with the bat. I'd rather have Walker at second next season than Cedeno.

Age-wise, he's fine for AA (currently 22). The question everyone has is whether or not Moore can stick at 3B. While a number of people (including Former Daytona broadcaster Bo Fulginiti and current West Tenn broadcaster Ron Potesta) say that he actually is much better than people give him credit for, Moore has a number of errors on the season that are cause for some concern. If he can stick at the hot corner and keep those errors to a minimum, no doubt he'll be a fine 3B in the majors given his power and patience. However, if he has to move to 1B or the OF, his value drops significantly. He'll likely make almost all Cubs prospect top 10 lists this season. He's arguably the third best position prospect in the organization behind Felix Pie and Eric Patterson. Personally, I'd rate Moore ahead of Patterson.

Walrond is a non-prospect. He's been bounced around from various organizations. He's not likely to be in the Cubs organization next year.

Or witnessed Bynum hitting second.

Did anyone notice this? Is that even a possibility?

In my final installment, I'll break down the contenders for the AL MVP. Once again, I eliminated pitchers from consderation. I then took the top seven in OPS and added Jeter and Mauer to that list (1-2 in BA for the league) for my nine possible MVP's. My list is as follows: Hafner, M. Ramirez, Dye, Thome, Ortiz, Giambi, Morneau, Mauer, and Jeter. Beginning with OPS, the candidates rank like this: 1. Hafner- 1080 2. Ramirez- 1070 3. Dye- 1042 T4. Thome- 1028 T4. Ortiz 1028 6. Giambi- 1016 7. Morneau- 956 8. Mauer- 948 9. Jeter- 878 Based on this stat alone, Hafner looks to be the leading candidate. Also it is worth noting that Ramirez is higher than his highly acclaimed teammate. It is amusing that Jeter and Ortiz seem to be the favorites in the national media, but neither are the favorites on my list thus far. Next I looked at batting average. I personally don't care for the stat all that much, but since it can influence the national media, it is worth noting. 1. Mauer- .356 2. Jeter- .334 T3. Dye- .326 T3. Ramirez .326 5. Morneu- .317 6. Hafner- .307 7. Thome- .294 8. Ortiz- .284 9. Giambi- .262 Using BA as a metric, Jeter gains some value as does Mauer. Giambi's low average likely takes him out of view from the traditional voters. Moving along to HR's and then RBIs gives us another view into how the traditional voters will view things. HR- 1. Ortiz- 46 2. Hafner- 39 3. Dye -38 T4. Thome- 36 T4. Giambi- 36 6. Ramirez- 34 7. Morneau- 32 T8 Jeter- 10 T8 Mauer 10 RBI 1. Ortiz- 120 2. Hafner- 112 3. Morneau- 110 4. Giambi- 105 5. Dye- 101 6. Ramirez- 100 7. Thome- 91 8. Jeter- 78 9. Mauer- 73 Taking these two stats into account with everything else, it's now clear why the national media has a jimmy for Ortiz. Ortiz is high on the traditional run-producing (yet poor) metrics of RBI and HR's. My guess based on BA, RBI, and HR (and Jeter's noteriety), the national race will look like 1. Ortiz, 2. Jeter, 3. Hafner I'm just not sure that's how it should be, so I kept looking. Moving to the more comprehensive stat, runs created, this is what I found. 1. Hafner 119 2. Ramirez 108 T3. Ortiz 104 T3 Jeter 104 5. Thome- 103 6. Giambi 101 7. Dye- 99 8. Morneau- 96 9. Mauer- 91 While Jeter and Ortiz, are knocking at the door here, Hafner has taken a huge advantage here. Ramirez also out-scores his more affable teammate. The argument then becomes isn't Ortiz Mr. Clutch? Well, I looked at BA with RISP and prepared to be surprised by the results. 1. Mauer- .398 2. Jeter- .388 3. Dye- .360 4. Thome- .344 5. Morneau- .331 6. Ramirez- .325 7. Hafner- .315 8. Giambi- .291 9. Ortiz- .286 Mr. Clutch himself is at the bottom of the list. It's also worth noting that his BA with RISP is identical to his BA in all situations. This certainly shouldn't lift Ortiz to the top of the MVP voting. I finally decided to see what looking at Win Shares would do to my thinking. T1. Ramirez- 22 T1. Jeter- 22 T1. Mauer- 22 T4. Hafner- 19 T4. Ortiz- 19 T4. Thome- 19 T4. Morneau- 19 8. Giambi 18 9. Dye- 17 What this list makes clear is there is no clear winner right now in the AL MVP. Jeter and Ortiz are likely going to be the choices of the national media. Ortiz does better in OPS and the power categories, but win shares makes Jeter's contributions a little more relevant. If choosing between those two, I'd likely choose Jeter even though I like Ortiz better. In reality, Ortiz has been outperformed by Manny, and if anyone on the Red Sox should win MVP this year, it should be Ramirez. I'm not ready to proclaim a deserving winner here, but if I had to rank mine, I'd likely rank them- 1. Jeter 2. Ramirez 3. Hafner 4. Ortiz 5. Mauer The remaining four don't stand out enough to rank any further. 8.

He has been horrible at 3B for the Padres. I wonder what his excuse is for that? Maybe that he hasn't played that position since 1998?

I'd let their numbers speak for themselves. I don't penalize a player for having good/great teammates. I also don't reward them either. I think Pujols should win the award right now because overall, he has the best numbers. If I had looked at those and saw that Beltran or Wright had the better numbers, then I'd have come to the conclusion that one of them should receive the award, their teammates notwithstanding.

My name is Rachel Phelps, not Jeff Loria! http://www.fast-rewind.com/soms1.jpg she was trying to get the team moved to miami though further proof that girls should be kept out of baseball ;) http://www.cantstopthebleeding.com/C1882343933/E2045665090/Media/si960520.jpg Marge disagrees.

QFT

Bonderman's PRC is 90. That places him behind Santana, Halliday, and Schilling in that category. It does place him ahead of Verlander. Bonderman's ERA is 3.92 which is higher than any of the ones I considered. Bonderman's WHIP is 1.23 which is better than only Verlander and that by one-onehundreth of a run. His record is only 11-6 which I think will eliminate him in the eyes of the voters. He also has only 12 Win Shares which is four lower than Verlander and also lower than any of the other pitchers I considered. Verlander is having a good year, but he's a tier below these guys.

Liriano just hasn't pitched enough this year. There's no doubt about how good he's been when he's there, but he just doesn't have the IP to really be considered. Liriano's numbers are good enough to be considered deserving and I probably shouldn't have omitted him. I'd still give the award to Santana, but the fact that both Liriano and Santana are the two most dominant pitchers in the league and are both on the same team is sick!

The Cowboys continue to be efficient this preseason.

That's been shown as wrong (not saying you're the one saying that the Colvin pick was in conjunction with Samardizja). Colvin got less-than-slot money, but not by much ($1.475 million). Samardzija received $250,000, but won't receive anywhere near the reported $7 million unless he stays in baseball for a few years. The second and third biggest bonuses the Cubs gave were for Chris Huseby ($1.3 million) in the 11th round and Drew Rundle ($500,000) in the 14th round. Thanks... My biggest point still is the fact that at this point in time you can't say who will, or who won't have the better major league career. Some of these kids might not even make it that far. It is impossible to tell at this point. You are correct that it is impossible to tell, but the Colvin pick was criticized by almost everyone as a reach at the time it was made. I think the point the original poster was making is that two months into their careers, it still looks like a reach.

But isn't also the other teams' jobs too when they had other players ranked ahead of Colvin. Using the fact that the Cubs drafted him is the lamest cop out ever. The Colvin pick was question by people who's job it is to know about these things the moment they are made. By your argument, we should trust all of Baker's moves because it's his job. We should also trust Jim Hendry because it is his job as well. That's pretty ridiculous to me. I'm not saying that the Colvin pick will or won't be a bust. What I am saying is that there's a whole lot more evidence now, these 200 AB's included but not limited to the 200 AB's, that Colvin was a reach pick and that players taken after him in the first round will be much better players in the major leagues. It appears that most teams felt this way and that the Cubs either saw something others didn't or messed up the pick. Maybe Wilken did make the right pick and maybe it is too early to tell, but I think there are other people who were also "doing their jobs" that think it wasn't the most prudent pick at that draft slot and the early returns are backing up that assessment. How do you know where other teams had Colvin ranked? This was an odd draft, with the absence of 2nd, 3rd, and 4th round picks. There have been some that said the Colvin pick was in conjunction with the amount of money Smardzjia got in the 5th. I disagree with your statement here: "What I am saying is that there's a whole lot more evidence now, these 200 AB's included but not limited to the 200 AB's, that Colvin was a reach pick and that players taken after him in the first round will be much better players in the major leagues." Are you saying that you can prove, beyond a doubt how much success these players are going to have in the major leagues based off of 2 months in the minor leagues? You have no way of knowing how much, or how little success a player will have in the future in the Major Leagues, after two months and 200 AB"s. That is ridiculous to me. I'm not arguing that those 200 AB's are the main predictor. And no, 200 ABs do not predict what a player will do in the majors. But those AB's do back-up, at least for now that the Cubs made a "reach pick" by taking Colvin. At least up to this point, those 200 AB's are a further indicator along with all the other reasons that scouts, publications, and teams had Snider ranked ahead of Colvin. To this point, Colvin has done nothing to warrant his pick over Snider. While it may be ridiculous to base a decision on 200 AB's, that point would be stronger if those 200 AB's didn't support the conclusions that these publications, scouts, and other teams had already made. While I can't offer definitive proof that other teams ranked Snider ahead of Colvin, I have no reason to trust publications who have information from insiders suggesting just that. Even if taking Smarjada was being thought of as making up for the loss of the 2-4 rd picks, it still makes sense to take the better player in the first round and hence get value at two picks. Colvin very well may prove everyone wrong and further validate Wilken as a good drafter. I'll be the first to admit the jury is still out. But, at this point, it appears the Cubs could have had better players than the one they selected. While that may be forgiveable when you take the pick that everyone says should be selected there....it becomes a big error when eveyone says it was a mistake at the time and is still proven to be a mistake later. Right now, it appears to be a mistake. I hope for the Cubs sake it isn't, but the early (key emphasis) on early returns are that is was a mistake to take Colvin with that pick. You may find it ridiculous. I find it an appropriate use of the info that we have available.

You have a point, but the NY media could end up being divided between Wright and Beltran. I still think Pujols wins this one. His incumbancy will help and he's already regarded as the most feared hitter in the game. Writers (voters) unwilling to do much homework, will look at Pujols' numbers and conclude that he's the MVP. This year, unlike some, the easy choice also happens to be the right one.

But isn't also the other teams' jobs too when they had other players ranked ahead of Colvin. Using the fact that the Cubs drafted him is the lamest cop out ever. The Colvin pick was question by people who's job it is to know about these things the moment they are made. By your argument, we should trust all of Baker's moves because it's his job. We should also trust Jim Hendry because it is his job as well. That's pretty ridiculous to me. I'm not saying that the Colvin pick will or won't be a bust. What I am saying is that there's a whole lot more evidence now, these 200 AB's included but not limited to the 200 AB's, that Colvin was a reach pick and that players taken after him in the first round will be much better players in the major leagues. It appears that most teams felt this way and that the Cubs either saw something others didn't or messed up the pick. Maybe Wilken did make the right pick and maybe it is too early to tell, but I think there are other people who were also "doing their jobs" that think it wasn't the most prudent pick at that draft slot and the early returns are backing up that assessment.

I usually don't take position into account when thinking through my MVP process. That does help elevate some new ones into the mix, namely Utley and drops Berkman some. Either way, Pujols again comes out on top. Cabrera and Beltran remain up there as well. I'd still probably keep my top four the same even taking VORP into account.

What did he do?

We've looked at NL and AL Cy Young awards. What now of the NL MVP? With the MVP, it's a little tougher to limit the focus. I've tried to do that. First of all, I eliminated pitchers. Personally, I'm reluctant to include pitchers in the MVP discussion unless there's a lack of a good position player to win or unless a pitcher has a season that is way beyond that of a normal Cy Young award winning season. I don't believe that is the case this year. I ended up with 8 candidates (and yes, there are other marginal ones that could be in the discussion as well.) Here they are: Pujols, Berkman, Beltran, Cabrera, Howard, C. Jones, Wright, and Soriano. I wanted to begin with a cursory look at OPS (On base + Slugging Percentage). Here's how they rank. 1. Pujols- 1099 2. Berkman- 1022 T3. Beltran- 1015 T3 Cabrera 1015 5. Howard 1002 6. C. Jones 974 7. Soriano 962 8. Wright- 889 When looking at this stat alone, Pujols jumps to the lead with the next three not far behind. Wright based upon this metric looks to not belong in the discussion, and granted there were many players with higher OPS that could be included ahead of him. Moving from OPS, I next examined the runs created by each player, and this is how they rank. 1. Cabrera 116 2. Pujols 114 T3. Berkman 108 T3. Beltran 108 5. Soriano 107 6. Wright 96 7. Howard 94 8. C. Jones 78 After adding this metric, Pujols still appears to be the leader, but Cabrera has moved very close. It also seems to create a level of the top four: Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, and Beltran and the remaining four. Right now, that's probably how I'd rank them. Moving from RC to RC/G changes things a little, most notable helping those players who have missed some time due to injury. 1. Pujols 11.2 2. Cabrera 10.3 3. Berkman 10.2 4. Beltran 9.6 5. C. Jones 8.7 6. Wright 7.9 7. Soriano 7.9 8. Howard 7.7 The top four reflect my exact rankings after this stat is taken into account and haven't affected my thinking much. I've noticed the bottom four jump around depending on each stat, but never do any of the bottom four crack the top four. I'm tempted at this point to eliminate all but Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, and Beltran from the discussion. I'd likely be fair in doing so, but know the voters and national media look at other stats, so I think it is fair to keep looking. I'll move on to homeruns. While this is a one-dimensional stat, it's flashy and catches the voters eyes. It might be telling especially in predicting how the mindless masses might feel in the balloting. 1. Howard 45 2. Sorianao 41 3. Pujols 38 4. Beltran 37 5. Berkman 35 T6. Cabrera 22 T6. Wright 22 8. C. Jones 19 This moves Howard's and Soriano's stock up a bit. It doesn't change my opinions of ranking the top four: Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, Beltran, but it could impact the national media's rankings of these players. It could boost Howard while hurting Cabrera some. Some want to know how an MVP candidate perfoms in the clutch. I took each player's BA with RISP and this is what it looks like. 1. Pujols- .402 2. Berkman- .375 T2 Cabrera- .375 4. Wright- .365 5. Beltran- .321 6. C. Jones- .290 7. Howard- .241 8. Soriano- .240 If clutch hitting is the test of an MVP, Pujols makes his case rather strongly here. Wright is the only new member to our top four, but even with this new information I still feel justified ranking them: Pujols, Cabrera, Berkman, and then Beltran. Finally, I took a look at win shares. This is how they rank: T1. Pujols 27 T1 Beltran 27 3. Berkman 24 4. Soriano 23 5. Cabrera 21 6. Wright 20 7. Howard 17 8. C. Jones 16 I'm not surprised that three of the top four are also the ones I've been ranking as such. Cabrera drops to fifth as Soriano moves into the fourth spot. Taking it all into account and as much as it pains me to say it, it's hard not to conclude that Pujols should be well on his way to winning his second MVP. Behind him, I'd rank them: Beltran, Cabrera, Berkman, Soriano, Wright, Howard, and Jones. I really can't find a case to give the award to anyone other than Pujols.

I like straight picks for the Pro and point spread for NCAA.

I've officially joined.

I'm sorry, but this is one of the dumbest posts I've seen on here in a while (and that says a lot). Are you really going to judge a draft based on 200 ABs at the low-A level? I think it is silly to believe that people know more than the Cubs scouts who watch these players play, because they read something online. But is it silly to believe that publications and other teams who rated Snider higher than Colvin know more than the Cubs scouts? Because I think it was clear that most teams and most scouting publications, and therefore more scouts, etc viewed Snider as the better player.