vance_the_cubs_fan

I agree, I can smell upset here. If the game was in Jacksonville, maybe. But not in Indy. Last year in Indy, Peyton threw for only 122 yards. The running game was solid, but without Edge there, I don't know how successful they will be running the ball. Their secondary is loaded with big (good tackling..)hitters who are gonna frustrate the finesse receivers all day. Early line has Indy -7. That's a gutsy call after they just shutout the Steelers. Now the Jags gotta score some points :D If I'm going to get a full TD to pick the Jags, I may have to lay some money on this game.

Hell, with Arod at short, we could even afford to see if Theriot can play 2b.

I disagree. And if teams constantly threw pitchouts with the pitcher up, that would work into Pierre's team's favor as it would waste pitches with the pitcher at the plate. Who said constant pitchouts? I said constant fastballs. We've all seen times where the P is facing the oppposing P, and he inexplicably tries to get too cute: eg. throwing too many breaking balls, nibbling at corners, etc. Don't you scream "just throw strikes!" at the TV? I do, and I can't see why a P would ever get the urge to get cute with Pierre on base and a P at the plate. The C would call for fastballs, and the P wouldn't argue. And that still favors the pitcher who is batting. I'd rather that pitcher get to swing at a fastball then to have to try to hit the opposing pitcher's breaking ball. It doesn't change the fact that Pierre would be an ok 8th place hitter. His skills wouldn't be bad there. In fact, my guess is if you compared his numbers to most 8 place hitters, he fares better than average. That being said, no one pays 8 place hitters the money Pierre will want.

What gives you the impression that Theriot can perform at an Eckstien level? Eckstein in college and with the exception of one half season in the minors posted OBP in excess of 400. Theriot has not come close to that. Why do you think Theriot projects to have those numbers other than the fact he's scrappy and white like Eckstein? The cost of your team if you get Wells or Jones will greatly exceed mine. If I could get Wells or Jones, I would as well. I still wouldn't get Padilla and if I had those, I'd likely pursue Durham which would still be a better option than Theriot. I like Ryan. As an LSU fan, I hope he will suceed as a Cub, but there's nothing in his history that projects to anything like what Eckstein has done. Your hopes for Theriot are based on a measley 100 AB's. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking. Cedeno has just as much liklihood of becoming Tejada as Theriot has of becoming Eckstein. Honestly, I think it because certain people develop at different rates than others. I think Theriot is just now figuring it out. I don't think he can keep up his 412 OBP but I definitely think he can keep up his 350 OBP. Like he has had every year in the minors since his first two. If you don't give the kid a chance you will never know what he can do. He has played well this past month so he deserves the chance just like Cedeno did last year. However, the difference being Cedeno only had one good year in the minors where Theriot has had two and Theriot has always shown good plate discipline. I also don't understand the fascination with us adding more power to the Lineup. Adding a healthy Derrek Lee and getting a platoon for Jones should give us more than enough pop in the middle of the order. You can expect the 3-4-5 all to give you atleast 30 homeruns. You can expect Barrett to hit his 15 and Murton to hit between 15-20. We have enough power. Our team lacks OBP and Soriano besides this year does not provide that. I'm not going to debate that Theriot hasn't shown nice plate discipline. He's also a lot older than Cedeno. You're exactly right in that without the chance, we'll never know. But what if we give him the chance, and he posts a 260/320/335 line. Then say goodby to contention in 2007 because with the other pieces we have in place, the line-up cannot sustain that level of production. Unlike other teams or other situations, the Cubs are really not in a position to gamble with Theriot at second, especially when there are better options available. If we were stronger in other spots, it might be prudent. If Theriot had a higher ceiling and a higher level of performance in the minors, maybe. But he doesn't. Our team doesn't just lack OBP, it lacks both OBP and SLG. This team needs one more slugger. It's not just important to get on base, and believe me, I believe that is important, but it is also important to have some feared hitters that can drive the ball with authority. If not, we will still have to produce too many baserunners to be effieciently scoring runs. Unless we get that slugger in left by moving Murton or in CF, we'll need to get it at second base or by trading for it at SS. Since I don't see Hendry moving Izturis, and I think trading for Jones from Atlanta is ify, and I value Murton's projections over Theriot, second is the ideal place to get that missing component of the line-up. I really think what is happening here is that Theriot is a likeable player. He hustles, he's scrappy, and he's all the things we like in a ballplayer. He's also a product of our system. We all would want the chance if in his shoes, so we root for him. That's all good. But when baseball teams make decisions based on sappy sentimentality, more times than not, they fail. Soriano may represent all that is bad in the game. But his bat makes the most sense for our line-up in 2007. Does it suck to be Theriot in that situation? Yes, it does. I wish it weren't so, but I want the Cubs to win more than I want what's best for The Riot.

While I agree with your offseason strategy, I can't agree with the above statement. I think it's highly more likely that Theriot could match or even exceed Eckstein's 2006 line of .289/.348/.328 than it is that Cedeno could even come close to Tejada's production. Perhaps I was using some hyperbole there.

What gives you the impression that Theriot can perform at an Eckstien level? Eckstein in college and with the exception of one half season in the minors posted OBP in excess of 400. Theriot has not come close to that. Why do you think Theriot projects to have those numbers other than the fact he's scrappy and white like Eckstein? The cost of your team if you get Wells or Jones will greatly exceed mine. If I could get Wells or Jones, I would as well. I still wouldn't get Padilla and if I had those, I'd likely pursue Durham which would still be a better option than Theriot. I like Ryan. As an LSU fan, I hope he will suceed as a Cub, but there's nothing in his history that projects to anything like what Eckstein has done. Your hopes for Theriot are based on a measley 100 AB's. It's pie-in-the-sky thinking. Cedeno has just as much liklihood of becoming Tejada as Theriot has of becoming Eckstein.

I wonder if Hendry sees Zambrano, Hill and Miller as his 1,3, and 5. If so, might Padilla and Lilly be candidates for 2 and 4? do you really think Hendry would leave no room for Marshall, Marmol, Guzman, or Mateo? Where does Prior fit?

Jeff Kent is not a free agent. He signed an extension in spring training. He will get $9M in 2007 and the Dodgers have a $9M option on him in 2008. Kent is buddies with Coletti, and has made it clear he is ending his career in Dodger Blue. Hoops I was unaware of the extension he signed. Thanks for the info.

Actually they're 2nd to last...the Texans are last. But your point stands. So a 2-0 team is ranked below the two teams they beat who have beaten no one. Yeah, that ranking system isn't flawed. Like Bukie pointed out, it figures in last season for early rankings. Either way, I don't lend much credibility to them. I'll follow them through the season to see where thye lead, but right now I don't think there's much validity to them.

Actually they're 2nd to last...the Texans are last. But your point stands. So a 2-0 team is ranked below the two teams they beat who have beaten no one. Yeah, that ranking system isn't flawed.

While I don't necessarily disagree with most of your post, or the main gist of it, I think you're missing an important consideration in the line above. I have more faith that Theriot could provide adequate play at 2b NEXT YEAR than I do in many of our young pitchers providing adequate play as starters NEXT YEAR. But I have more faith that one or more of those young pitchers will provide above average play as starters a couple years down the road than I do that Theriot will ever be more than just adequate. Plus, with our injury history, it's probably a certainty that there will be plenty opportunities to get starts at the major league level next year for these guys even if they begin the year in AAA. Yet I don't think Padilla is necessarilly the best option. But the issue becomes if Padilla or someone like him is brought in, that pitcher will be here for three years in all liklihood. If Zambrano is signed long term, and Prior works out his issues, then a number of those pitchers will have to be let go. If they aren't able to establish value in the majors, many will be let go cheaply to realize that possible ceiling somewhere other than Chicago. I'm willing to gamble that one of a possible five can become valuable next season more so than I'm able to gamble that Theriot will become something than no one has ever really projected him to be.

I've answered this in a number of threads.... but let me quote it again... I'd sign Soriano for second, call up Pie for CF, sign Schmidt, sign C. Wilson and Derosa for the bench. That's near a 100 million payroll. C Barrett- 4.5 million 1b Lee - 13 million 2b – Soriano (signs 5/70 deal)- 14 million SS Izturis – 4 million 3b Ramirez- 13 million (4/52 extension) LF Murton- 350 K (est) CF Pie- 330 K RF Jones- 4 million SP Zambrano- 10 million (est) SP Schmidt (4/45- structured 10,11,12,12)- 10 SP Prior 4.5 million (est) SP Hill 350 K SP Marshall/Mateo/Marmol/Ryu/Guzman- 350 K Bullpen: Dempster (5 million), Howry (4 million), Eyre (3.5 million), Ohman (1 million- est), Wuertz (350 K), and Aardsma (350 K) Bench: Soto- 330 K Theriot- 330 K C. Wilson (2 year 7.5 million contract)- 3.5 Pagan – 350 K DeRosa (2 year 4.5 million contract)- 2.25 That’s a total payroll of 99.76 million. Other options: If I failed to sign Soriano, I'd look at Durham at second and possibly Edmonds in CF. I'd also likely see what the Braves would require to obtain Jones. If I had Jones in CF, I'd pursue Durham or Castillo for second. I might also have some interest in Kent at second if I could acquire a decent CF.

I agree that long term contention requires teams to fill in spots with young player. With the current market for secondbasemen, there really isn't a reason to take that risk this season. Padilla isn't an ace. He can be a valuable pitcher on a staff, but he isn't a top of the line starter. To take a step down in offense to add Padilla when there are a slew of young arms, many with higher ceilings than Theriot and have proven more in their minor league careers than Theriot is ridiculous. I agree with taking a chance. I also think Marshall, Ryu, Guzman, or Mateo can be pretty good when given a chance. In fact, each of those has a greater chance of being an impact pitcher than Theriot has of being a valuable asset in the line-up. The difference in our plans is where we're taking the risks and the impact of those risks on the team. In your plan, you are hoping that 2006 Padilla is the real deal and not 2005 Padilla. You'll be gambling around 7 million for three years to take that gamble. Even if he is the Padilla of the 4+ ERA of this season, he's not an ace, but surely a valuable third. You still have to hope Hill or Prior steps up along with Zambrano to have a legitimate three front line starters. Your offense is placing a huge gamble. Outside of Lee and Ramirez, there are no sure-fire run producers. You're hoping Theriot can at least post respectible OBP, because if he doesn't , we'll have a bottom third offense with Theriot and Izturis along with less than ideal slugging in the outfield. If Theriot doesn't work, you haven't wasted any money, but the alternatives are Cedeno, bringing up Patterson, or finding a Tony Womack like retread. Your pitching staff will have lots of depth in case Padilla doesn't work or in the case of injury, but there will be lots of cash gambled with it as well. In my plan, the risk is more balanced. I'm spending a great deal of risk spending on Soriano. I'm trying to limit some of that risk by having a deeper bench. Signing DeRosa would help as would keeping Theriot around. My pitching lacks the depth, but only my subtracting Padilla. I'm counting on one of Marshall, Guzman, Ryu, or Mateo to step up and perform. My risk is spread over four high ceiling pitchers, while yours is in one low ceiling secondsacker. You attack mine for not looking at the long term. In my plan, I'd block a player (Theriot) that scouts have long believed was a utility player, while signing Padilla blocks a number of high ceiling pitchers. Why do you have more faith in Theriot than you do in Marshall/Ryu/Guzman/Mateo/Marmol?

Also the Saints are 31st! I'd have to question a ranking system that puts a 2-0 team dead last. Now, the Saints are likely among the worst teams in the despite starting 2-0 and yes, they beat two of the worst teams in the NFL, but to put them last when several teams are 0-2 makes me skeptical that there is any value in that system.

I'm going to pick the Jags to beat the Colts.

I surely hope that the deal is done to keep him. That would make this offseason a little more bearable.

Where does Jeff Kent fit onto these lists? He's getting old, but could still be useful. He's not going to get a long-term deal, but he might get a nice one-year contract. Kent might be a decent option for a team with some money to spend that doesn't want to get caught up in a long term deal.

The Brewers are going to play the Royals next season. Link

Here's the numbers again from my previous post. I may be off on a few, but many of these came from Cot's and I'm using the consensus from a yahoo.com article on what it may take to sign the FA. After, eating Rusch's 2.5 million I'm a little over 100 million. I think adding Schmidt will be enough to make the pitching tremendously better. With this rotation, we're counting on Hill, but at 26 years old, he should be ready. There is a risk with Prior as well. With the number of arms vying for the fifth spot, there should be adequate depth so that there's no need to spend the additional money on Padilla. However, if the Cubs wanted to bump payroll into the 105-107 range, it would be feasible to dump Wilson or DeRosa and then sign Padilla. I'm just not for the move. Furthermore, this line-up doesn't account for any trades. A trade of a surplus pitcher and a player like Cedeno could net another player or two for depth purposes. As this line-up shows, there is no need to be "cost efficient" with second. If you think Soriano is too expensive and want to sign Padilla, fine. Then sign Padilla and use the left over to sign Ray Durham. I've allocated 14 million for Soriano. I'm sure that's enough to get both Padillla and Durham.

I'd love to draft Brackman, though part of me would like a polished hitter.

A team with a 100 million plus payroll doens't have to be too cost efficient. And no, I don't think platooning Jones and signing Lofton to go with what we have will be enough. Now, if the Cubs added Tejada or Andruw Jones, then we might could have Izturis and Theriot up the middle with Murton in left and Jones in right and be ok. Or, if we move Jones to CF and sign or trade for a bopper in right we might be ok with Theriot as a 2b. But there's nothing that indicates Theriot can sustain that OBP in the majors and if he does, it still comes at the lack of slugging. Furthermore, with the number of secondbasemen on the market: Kennedy, Walker, Durham, Soriano, Kent, Biggio, Castillo and others, it just doesn't make sense to gamble with Theriot. For my buck, I'd sign Soriano for second and go cost efficient with either Pie in CF. I have a thread somewhere around here where I show the Cubs with a 101 million payroll can afford both Schmidt and Soriano if they use Pie in CF. If they bumb to 108, they likely could have either Pierre, Cameron, or Edmonds in CF.

Let's trade them Jones and Izturis for Dye. :P

My record for week 2 is 9-7 and 8-8 for week one making me 17-15 on the season so far.

:lmao:

NO! YOU CANT LIKE HIM! HE DOESNT HAVE THE MINOR LEAUGE #'S! YOU ARE OBVIOUSLY INSANE! THE #'S TELL ALL! Your point that we don't know everything by the numbers is well-known. But it's a risk vs reward situation. While you are right, Theriot may exceed what his MiLB numbers indicate. It could be possible that his 100 ABs this season are more relevant than his entire career. Maybe. It is more likely that this is a hot streak, and that Theriot will revert to what the projections of his MiLB numbers indicate. No one knows for certain which is the case. But it seems a little risky in my opinion to risk that Theriot will perform at a level much higher than his MiLB equivalents indicate, especially in a market flooded with proven performers at secondbase. Liken to this: Which would be a better retirement option, investing in a mutual fund or buying lottery tickets. The mutual fund is safe, though not a sure thing, safer than lottery tickets. But, someone has to win the lottery, and if you do, the payout will be tremendous. However, the odds are more in favor of the positive result, though with a lower ceiling and greater cost, to invest in the mutual fund. I don't know too many people who would make lottery tickets their investment choice, so I'm having a hard time understanding why people want to gamble 2007 with Theriot.