vance_the_cubs_fan

I have EI, so I watch just as many games as I always did.

But, as you have suggested, some of our money should go to the bullpen. Seeing Dotel, Seanez and Dempster, in addition to Ohman, Wuertz and Novoa would make me pretty happy. I strongly believe Dempster signed to be the closer. I'm also fairly certain that Hendry is a straight shooter. He's not going to bring in someone else to do the job he signed Dempster to do. We could argue whether he should or not, but the fact remains that he isn't. We can drool over the possibility of adding Wagner to the pen all we want, but it's not going to happen.

I'm sure you used words like I did after the Cowboys game on Sunday.

With the signing of Dempster, this in no way impacts the Cubs. I don't see us pursuing another closer and paying Dempster 5 million to set-up. It's just not going to happen.

Vance.... here's a quick approximation for you: Given that Giles & Burnitz had nearly identical plate appearances (664 AB+BB to 662 AB+BB), and Giles had an OBP of .423 to Burnitz's .322 ....... that's a difference of .101 for RF. If you divide that by 9 positions on the team, that's a difference to the team rate of .011. The net effect then would be: CUBS with Burnitz Giles OBP .324 ,335 League Rank 11 5 Difference from mean -.006 .005 Z Score (# std dev from mean) -.78 .59 Giles alone would have leap frogged us past half the league. Doing similar calculations on Burnitz & Giles' SLG, the net effect on OPS would bring the CUBS from .764 (4th place) to .780 (2nd place) just .005 behind league leading Cincinnati. I don't have the formulas to extrapolate all this to additional runs and expected wins, but you get the idea. I'd certainly be willing to pay an additional 7 or 8 million per annum for this kind of additional production. Thanks, Fred. So if I'm interpreting those numbers correctly, even with the injuries and the left-field debacle, had the 2004 Cubs had Giles in the place of Burnitz, we would have been a top 5 offense. That would have definitely put us in contention for the wild card. Giles, please!

I also voted 4/50 because I think that's a decent ballpark figure. Personally, I'd make an offer of 4/50 with a 5th year at 10 million or a 2 million buyout. That would actually put the total value at 4/52 or 5/60. I'd break the payments out as follows: 2006: 12 million 2007: 12 million 2008: 14 million 2009: 14 million 2010: 10 million or 2 million buy-out.

A narrow victory, but a victory none the less!

I see both teams looking to make a trade to fill one or more of their outfield voids.

Of course he was, the amount of sour grapes about the White Sox on this board is really dragging it down. The Sox are in the series, deal with it! Stop making a million posts trying to drag them down! Amen there. Yeah.. really.. relax. That being said... I think his bat mightve been corked. Seconded.

thats fine and all but some remarks in this thread are way off just bashing of sox fans in general that are largely untrue or similar of all fanbases..... Im sorry but every fanbase has its own share of [edited] and those are the ones that you remember the most... I agree that all fanbases have some bad apples, but in the case of the Sox the obnoxious out number the others

the 2 currently for sale on ebay are at $88 and $200. I've seen it for $36-40 dollars for a later priniting. Here's a syllabus for a class on the history of sabermetrics. (Kent...where were these course when I was in undergrad!) The book list would likely be an excellent place to start. There's also an email address for one of the professors, so you might send him an email and see if he has any suggestions. You might also try researching online journals if your college has a subscription (and I'm sure it does) to those services.

Giles will likely re-up with SD and Furcal will make more than that. I'm ok with Lofton, but if you get Furcal, I'd rather take a gamble with a different CF. I doubt we sign Ryan for that money, and I seriously doubt he goes anywhere he isn't the closer except maybe the Yankees. I don't sign Byrd for that kind of cash because I really don't think he's that much of an upgrade over Williams. For my course of action, see the thread on the Marlins-Cubs-Dodger rumor.

Selling the Cubs could be a good or bad move for the Trib. While the Cubs are a nice asset and the Trib is able to get a less than market-value deal to broadcast games on WGN, selling the team would produce an enormous influx of cash. Baseball teams rarely make anyone money until you sell them. The Cubs would likely sell for 500-750 million dollars. That amount of cash flowing immediately into the Trib cofers likely helps raise stock prices instantly. If the Cubs are sold, a broadcast arrangement could be negotiated into the sale. This would keep some Cubs games on WGN, but only for as long as the agreement. Eventually, those games would be subject to open bidding.

Every now and then I just love reading subjective, meaningless drivel devoid of facts or support.

The Milton Bradley train is starting to run out of control when people suggest Bradley would be the ideal 4 hitter for the Cubs next year. He's a career .269/.350/.426 hitter. He's outperformed that number in 2 of the last 3 years, but the only one that was close to a full year he was in-line with his career numbers. I'm fine with Bradley on this team, but he's a 2 hitter at best, and probably more like a 6 hitter. I have Bradley as the number six hitter in my proposed line-up. I think having some speed and power from a switch hitter in that spot breaks the line-up nicely.

But if I'm trading Cedeno to get Guillen, I'll need a more reliable SS than Nomar so ergo Furcal. Also, Furcal/Castillo is better defensively than Nomar/Castillo.

Assuming this trade happens. The Cubs still have 18 million available. Use 9 of that to sign Furcal to a 4/36 million deal. Finally trade Cedeno and Mitre (who is out of options) to the Nationals for Guillen. Here's my line-up: SS Furcal 2b Castillo 1b Lee 3b Ramirez CF Bradley RF Guillen LF Murton C Barrett That's a pretty formidible line-up with a nice mixture of OBP, power and speed. It ought to be pretty good defensively as well. The rotation shapes out to be: 1. Zambrano 2. Prior 3. Wood 4. Maddux 5. Lowe There's some innings eaters there and Jerome Williams is around for depth or trade bait. The bullpen is a little trickier Dempster is the closer, and I'd pencil in Ohman, Wuertz, Hill and Novoa. You could fill the last spot with Williams or look to JVB or Wellemeyer. Personally, I'd use some of my last available cash to sign Dotel as a set-up man. After giving up Cedeno in a trade, the bench will need some work. I'd keep Hairston around for bench duty and try to bring in an OF like Grieve. I'd use Greenberg there as well. Blanco handles the catching duties on the bench and I'd look to get Branyan or Sweeney if possible. Theriot or Fontenot might be useful on the bench and I'd likely give Sing a look as well in spring training.

Burrell and Mench are both possibilites. To get Castillo, you likely send Walker there, so he's not available to trade to Texas or Philly. Texas has Soriano and Philly has Utley, so I doubt either would be too interested in Walker, though Texas might use him as a DH. I do think Texas would have some interest in Castillo as would the Marlins. While I like Ronny and think he could provide some cheap production, if you sign Furcal to a 3-4 year deal, it might be wise to trade Ronny for something that could help you.

If Giles is off the board, I go after Furcal because he's the best FA available and we have money to spend. The reason I keep Walker instead of Castillo is that we need outfield help badly. With the weak FA crop, especially if Giles re-ups with SD, you're going to have to trade to get value in the OF. We have few bullets to do that with, and I'd rather save them to acquire an impact OF rather than a lateral move at a position I can fill adequately for 2.5 million. I think Pie is an extremely talented player who needs more time in the minors.

Jenks too. They may be good but they can't get the big outs. Those teams should trade them for the equivalents of Roberto Novoa and minor leaguers. They should trade them to the Cubs for the real Roberto Novoa. Dempster and Jenks setting up Lidge... =P~ Also sign Farnsworth, and I'll take an all-choking dog bullpen please.

Mark Cuban, please.

I'm not up on what the Reds have but I thought they had a gluten of OF's and needed pitching. Probably the case, but my point is would you be willing to deal Pie as part of a deal for Dunn that includes giving up at least one good pitching prospect, like a Nolasco. I would trade anyone in our minor league system for Dunn, but I'm pretty sure Hendry doesn't share my passion for Adam Dunn. On the other hand, I'd do everything I could to hang on to Pie and interest the Reds in other players.

If you like what Pierre/Castillo did for the Fish in 03, why not pull a deal for Castillo instead of Pierre? That would give speed and defense up the middle. Personally, I'd rather keep Walker's bat there though.

The only reason I place Fredi above Davey Johnson is I believe Fredi Gonzalez is youn enough to be with the Cubs for a long time. I think Gonzalez could be a long term solution at manager. Davey Johnson is a great manager. He wins and has the right philosophy. But you gotta know what you're going to get with Johnson, and that means understanding that he's not likely to still be there after four or five years. He's also quite abrasive as well. To me, he's much like the Larry Brown of baseball managers.

Jenks too. They may be good but they can't get the big outs. Those teams should trade them for the equivalents of Roberto Novoa and minor leaguers.